Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[ORH_wxman]

Using Dec 2007 as an example of the AK Vortex...notice what happened just prior to the Grinch Storm to end our great run of cold/snow

That set us up for our torch the final week of December 2007.

[CoastalWx]

Ridge near UK and Scandinavia too. Very similar to this upcoming deal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

He was literally 5 miles from having an Oak obliterator. The old location of WSI in Billerica had no power in that with transformers blowing everywhere. LOL, he took a toaster bath in that.

They got 5", I got 2".....I was ok with keeping power in lieu of 3 extra inches.

[CoastalWx]

They got 5", I got 2".....I was ok with keeping power in lieu of 3 extra inches.

You would have wanted to see it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You would have wanted to see it.

Not if it meant no power for days, no.....give me 2' if that is the case.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Using Dec 2007 as an example of the AK Vortex...notice what happened just prior to the Grinch Storm to end our great run of cold/snow

That set us up for our torch the final week of December 2007.

yeah i was on my phone before so couldn't really elaborate but i do like seeing the evolution of this happening mid-december onward. the 07 outbreak of arctic air was very front loaded in the month...there were definitely some big - departures, but a big negative number in early december is nothing compared to a double digit negative later in the month. you pull a -10 to -15 on december 3, that's basically like snagging a -4 at month's end. so if the cold can regenerate before dislodging, you could conceivable have a nasty outbreak in the second half of the month - assuming things evolved in a similar fashion (big assumption). but even if things aren't able to regenerate too much, even near climo is fine come late december.

[Weather Girl 22]

I am a warm weather lover. However, I Love the cold and snow too.

It's interesting that we have a snow threat in a relatively hostile teleconnectors. I think Typhoon_Tip was refering that the cryosphere momentum may account for some of this. However, I'm just reading up on this component.

Next week will be close to a snow event here tuesday night -wednesday unless we get a track too close with mild air. A slightly offshore track would be nice for that storm to help the 0C line advance further southeast amidst an otherwise hostile pattern.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

There is an aspect about all this that is very abstract, but one that I believe I'm going to wind up spot on about. Albeit virtually impossible to prove, it has to do with cryospheric momemtum - and perhaps equally if not more important, what has been hitting that throttle so hard this autumn. I was thinking perhaps the +AO; while certainly contributory, I don't believe that is the total equation. We saw as recent as 2006-2007 a record late autumn and early winter positive AO phase state but the cryosphere rate that year was less prodigious compared to what is observable now (to date).

The recovery rate has been fast, faster the usual - certainly relative to the current era of background GW. Greater in magnitude than any year to date since the mid 1960s; this, as of last week. Judging by the areal expanse as of yesterday's measure I cannot imagine that trend has alleviated.

If you think it can't turn cold and do so on a dime, guess again - you'd be judging poorly. I'm seeing all that momentum up N, and the CEFS extended flagging a collapsing NOA with rising PNA - those two teleconnectors in tandem with observed cold momentum phenomenon (that is palpable and measurable actually) should have no problem overwhelming the +EPO... Which is somewhat debatable in my mind; it may merely be held erroneously high. (Christ the PDO is against it for crying out loud). As I said before and please take this into consideration: a rising PNA is anti-correlated to a positive EPO.

I think folks just aren't happy unless they see and idealized pattern. You got to think about the totality of the system, however, because the viper isn't always lurking IN the box.

I know I asked this last year and was given the answer, but I've forgotten: what was the set-up which gave us the post Christmas arctic outbreak in December 1993? Was it a positive PNA? I mean a high of 15 below farenheit without the wind in Ottawa is incredible. Could we potentially see a flip which gives Toronto a high of 0F and Ottawa a high -15F sometime in December?

[ORH_wxman]

yeah i was on my phone before so couldn't really elaborate but i do like seeing the evolution of this happening mid-december onward. the 07 outbreak of arctic air was very front loaded in the month...there were definitely some big - departures, but a big negative number in early december is nothing compared to a double digit negative later in the month. you pull a -10 to -15 on december 3, that's basically like snagging a -4 at month's end. so if the cold can regenerate before dislodging, you could conceivable have a nasty outbreak in the second half of the month - assuming things evolved in a similar fashion (big assumption). but even if things aren't able to regenerate too much, even near climo is fine come late december.

Yes I am completely fine with having the flip happen mid-month...the biggest worry is that the vortex would linger longer and we would be stuck with a horrible month, but if we flip things mid-month, we could have a very good month overall still in the snow department with some impressive cold.

And as always, we can hope we sneak in a rogue event before that.

[CoastalWx]

yeah i was on my phone before so couldn't really elaborate but i do like seeing the evolution of this happening mid-december onward. the 07 outbreak of arctic air was very front loaded in the month...there were definitely some big - departures, but a big negative number in early december is nothing compared to a double digit negative later in the month. you pull a -10 to -15 on december 3, that's basically like snagging a -4 at month's end. so if the cold can regenerate before dislodging, you could conceivable have a nasty outbreak in the second half of the month - assuming things evolved in a similar fashion (big assumption). but even if things aren't able to regenerate too much, even near climo is fine come late december.

Not to mention dropping a few ticks in the SST dept help out too, when it gets past mid month. For you and I..having the hammer fall near mid month and esp the second half of the month makes things a lot easier in the snow dept. The Cape still needs some very cold air, but the second half of December is defintely easier to snow, than the first half.

[ORH_wxman]

I know I asked this last year and was given the answer, but I've forgotten: what was the set-up which gave us the post Christmas arctic outbreak in December 1993? Was it a positive PNA? I mean a high of 15 below farenheit without the wind in Ottawa is incredible. Could we potentially see a flip which gives Toronto a high of 0F and Ottawa a high -15F sometime in December?

The pattern flipped big time the final week of Dec 1993...it was basically the opposite of what we are seeing coming up

[CoastalWx]

Dec 29 1993 had one of the best snow busts ever. 3-5" turned into over a foot.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Not to mention dropping a few ticks in the SST dept help out too, when it gets past mid month. For you and I..having the hammer fall near mid month and esp the second half of the month makes things a lot easier in the snow dept. The Cape still needs some very cold air, but the second half of December is defintely easier to snow, than the first half.

yep. the only reason it was able to snow here in 12/07 was that first 15-20 day stretch was so far below normal...so those SWFEs were able to deliver the goods before too much marine taint ruined it. but once the arctic air released...it was blah until 1/28 really in IMBY

[ORH_wxman]

yep. the only reason it was able to snow here in 12/07 was that first 15-20 day stretch was so far below normal...so those SWFEs were able to deliver the goods before too much marine taint ruined it. but once the arctic air released...it was blah until 1/28 really in IMBY

You guys got screwed, but a lot of the region pulled the 1/14/08 storm our of their azz despite a horrific pattern. Had just enough cold to pull it out.

That January was pretty hostile for most of the month for any type of snow/cold. Even leading up to the Jan 27-28 event for the Cape, it was an ugly pattern, but there was enough cold to take advantage of that retrograding storm.

[Tropopause_Fold]

You guys got screwed, but a lot of the region pulled the 1/14/08 storm our of their azz despite a horrific pattern. Had just enough cold to pull it out.

That January was pretty hostile for most of the month for any type of snow/cold. Even leading up to the Jan 27-28 event for the Cape, it was an ugly pattern, but there was enough cold to take advantage of that retrograding storm.

yeah there was a little 3 to 4" snow here in january as well but otherwise it was a crappy stretch in there once the good december weather quit here.

i was just thinking, i've been really happy with 6 of the last 7 decembers.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The pattern flipped big time the final week of Dec 1993...it was basically the opposite of what we are seeing coming up

Is that a dream scenario or what? Once in a lifetime perhaps.

[ORH_wxman]

yeah there was a little 3 to 4" snow here in january as well but otherwise it was a crappy stretch in there once the good december weather quit here.

i was just thinking, i've been really happy with 6 of the last 7 decembers.

Yeah 2006 was really the only garbage December. 2004 back here was pretty meh...as we finished slightly below average in snow due to missing the brunt of the Dec 26 storm...we got 7.4" in it, but not a whole lot else that month. A little 3-4" early that month.

The run of Decembers has actually been pretty remarkable here since 2002.

2002....30.5"

2003....21.5"

2004....11.9"

2005....18.0"

2006....1.1"

2007....27.1"

2008....31.4"

2009....20.7"

2010....14.0"

climo....13.9"

We will probably start of slow this December, but we have done that a few times and then recovered....2008 and 2010 both started slow....so did 2004 but we were never able to really recover before January unlike SE MA/Cape Cod. 2006 is in a league of its own for futility. I think only 1999 was worse.

I'm certainly hoping 1999 is not around the corner. Get that vortex out of AK and I will become a lot more optimistic.

[dryslot]

Hope everyone enjoyed their 1-2 " lollies.

Didn't see a flake.

Yea, Pete, you and I would gladly take Dec '07...some others not so much.

I would..

[earthlight]

I'll admit looking at the analogs to 07 are concerning. But we are lucky in a sense that this is happening several weeks earlier. The death vortex over AK should (emphasis on should) be able to get out of there before we get into mid-late Dec.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah 2006 was really the only garbage December. 2004 back here was pretty meh...as we finished slightly below average in snow due to missing the brunt of the Dec 26 storm...we got 7.4" in it, but not a whole lot else that month. A little 3-4" early that month.

The run of Decembers has actually been pretty remarkable here since 2002.

2002....30.5"

2003....21.5"

2004....11.9"

2005....18.0"

2006....1.1"

2007....27.1"

2008....31.4"

2009....20.7"

2010....14.0"

climo....13.9"

We will probably start of slow this December, but we have done that a few times and then recovered....2008 and 2010 both started slow....so did 2004 but we were never able to really recover before January unlike SE MA/Cape Cod. 2006 is in a league of its own for futility. I think only 1999 was worse.

I'm certainly hoping 1999 is not around the corner. Get that vortex out of AK and I will become a lot more optimistic.

yeah that 12/04 storm was a really really solid storm. in most years, would have easily been the event of the winter here. that went from a 33F paste job to like 23F with 45 knot winds in a matter of a couple of hours. pretty widespread power outages too.

[snowNH]

I would..

Me too lol... I don't know why people are shocked by a possible 07/08 outcome... We've been saying this will be a gradient winter since July.

[dryslot]

Me too lol... I don't know why people are shocked by a possible 07/08 outcome... We've been saying this will be a gradient winter since July.

And really, Its still on pace, I don't think anythings changed right now to think otherwise..

[CoastalWx]

yeah that 12/04 storm was a really really solid storm. in most years, would have easily been the event of the winter here. that went from a 33F paste job to like 23F with 45 knot winds in a matter of a couple of hours. pretty widespread power outages too.

I had half or a hair more than many on the Cape, but the transition was pretty dam cool. After the Pats game that day, I went back to my girlfriend's house at the time, over in the Green Harbor section of Marshfield. It became 32.5 S+, but was sticking easily. Her step Dad was a big weenie and we cheered when his Davis got below 32.0F, LOL. After that, it was blizzard like for a few hours. We lost power in that as well. It's something else being right along the coast in a snowstorm like that.

[ORH_wxman]

Me too lol... I don't know why people are shocked by a possible 07/08 outcome... We've been saying this will be a gradient winter since July.

If we don't get the big NAO blocking like the last couple winters, its quite likely to be gradient if it turns out decent. The alternative isn't pretty. Euro ensemble have been on and off luke warm about a -NAO returning....theyhaven't really shown a lot of blocking in that region which would lead to more of a '07-'08 if we can get a cold Canada/northern tier.

[snowNH]

And really, Its still on pace, I don't think anythings changed right now to think otherwise..

With 19" here already... I don't see why 100"+ isn't possible here

[CoastalWx]

With 19" here already... I don't see why 100"+ isn't possible here

[snowNH]

If we don't get the big NAO blocking like the last couple winters, its quite likely to be gradient if it turns out decent. The alternative isn't pretty. Euro ensemble have been on and off luke warm about a -NAO returning....theyhaven't really shown a lot of blocking in that region which would lead to more of a '07-'08 if we can get a cold Canada/northern tier.

So you think CNE and NNE are probably fine either way?

[snowNH]

I wanna see pictures of Kevin crying while he hears that dreaded pinging sound.

[ORH_wxman]

So you think CNE and NNE are probably fine either way?

No, if we don't keep a cold Canada, it will suck everywhere like the late 1990s Ninas. That is why we are worried about the vortex in AK rotting or returning there at a later date even if it is eventually dislodged in mid-December.

[snowNH]

No, if we don't keep a cold Canada, it will suck everywhere like the late 1990s Ninas. That is why we are worried about the vortex in AK rotting or returning there at a later date even if it is eventually dislodged in mid-December.

Do we want that to get dislodged east? west? North?