Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[40/70 Benchmark]

For those of you down about the mild weather and the mild outlook, I quote to you from Sidney perley's Historic Storms of New England,

"The winter of 1801-02 was very mild, the month of January being so warm that on the twenty-fourth, the ice on the Merrimack river began to move down the stream, and on the twenty-eight, at Salem, Massachusetts, the thermometer indicated sixty degrees above zero. It was the warmest January that the people remembered. There had been but little snow, and they congratulated themselves upon the pleasant winter and the prospect of an early spring. On Sunday, the twenty-first of February, the aspect of the weather changed. The first part of the day was remarkably pleasant, but the wind soon changed to the northeast and a fierce storm came on. The storm continued for nearly a week, covering the earth with snow and sleet to the depth of several feet. Intense cold prevailed, which produced much suffering among all classes, and caused the sleet to freeze upon the snow. forming a crust so hard and thick that the people, not distinguishing the location of the roads, drove in their sleighs across lots over fences and walls." (page 134)

Thanks, Ginx.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Dec '06 1st half transitions to a Dec '07 2nd half, thx, c ya.

[Mr Torchey]

Dec '06 1st half transitions to a Dec '07 2nd half, thx, c ya.

YES!

[ski MRG]

Dec '06 1st half transitions to a Dec '07 2nd half, thx, c ya.

Glass half empty kinda guy.

[weathafella]

Glass half empty kinda guy.

2nd half of Dec 07 was pretty nice around here. It was January and beyond that blew.

[ski MRG]

2nd half of Dec 07 was pretty nice around here. It was January and beyond that blew.

lol, I read it wrong. I thought Dec 06- Jan '07.

[ORH_wxman]

2nd half of Dec 07 was pretty nice around here. It was January and beyond that blew.

Late Dec '07 kind of stunk...like the final week. Dec 13-Dec 21 was epic though...3 warning criteria snow events at BOS. That Dec 30-31 bust kind ended the month on a sour note, but still a great month. Very tight gradient though.

[weathafella]

Late Dec '07 kind of stunk...like the final week. Dec 13-Dec 21 was epic though...3 warning criteria snow events at BOS. That Dec 30-31 bust kind ended the month on a sour note, but still a great month. Very tight gradient though.

The 12/30 storm had so much potential but a driving rainer in the end. Then Canada took a dump regarding any cold air and winter only made cameos thereafter. However the 12/23 event was among the great busts in a good way. 12/25 was a rainy day but a deep snowpack ensured a white Christmas.

[ORH_wxman]

The 12/30 storm had so much potential but a driving rainer in the end. Then Canada took a dump regarding any cold air and winter only made cameos thereafter. However the 12/23 event was among the great busts in a good way. 12/25 was a rainy day but a deep snowpack ensured a white Christmas.

I think you are thinking of the 12/16/07 storm....was supposed to be 1-3 then a flip to sleet and rain and a net loss of snow pack fresh from the 12/13 storm...but meanwhile 8" later...We then had the norlun event that dumped another 7"+ on BOS on 12/20...we had about 4-5" out this way. The 12/30 bust was quite painful. 24-36 hours out it looked like a lock for 8-12"...BOS would have destroyed their Dec snowfall record, but instead mustered 0.8" to finish at 27.7" for the month and 0.2" behind the 1970 record of 27.9".

Weeklies def look like a gradient setting up for mid/late December...we'll see how they look as we get closer, but at least we get rid of the Vortex of Death in AK on them which is step 1 in getting a sustained cold pattern.

[Damage In Tolland]

At least we've got several opps of snow chances even in an above normal pattern. Seems like every cold shot has been accompanied by some sort of snow event..food for thought

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think you are thinking of the 12/16/07 storm....was supposed to be 1-3 then a flip to sleet and rain and a net loss of snow pack fresh from the 12/13 storm...but meanwhile 8" later...We then had the norlun event that dumped another 7"+ on BOS on 12/20...we had about 4-5" out this way. The 12/30 bust was quite painful. 24-36 hours out it looked like a lock for 8-12"...BOS would have destroyed their Dec snowfall record, but instead mustered 0.8" to finish at 27.7" for the month and 0.2" behind the 1970 record of 27.9".

Weeklies def look like a gradient setting up for mid/late December...we'll see how they look as we get closer, but at least we get rid of the Vortex of Death in AK on them which is step 1 in getting a sustained cold pattern.

That evolution could be better later in the month.

[SnowGoose69]

Late Dec '07 kind of stunk...like the final week. Dec 13-Dec 21 was epic though...3 warning criteria snow events at BOS. That Dec 30-31 bust kind ended the month on a sour note, but still a great month. Very tight gradient though.

Didn't the NAO, at least the CPC version of the NAO fail to register below 0.00 once in the entire 90 day period from 12/1-2/28 in 2007-2008? I believe only 1994-95 was the other winter where it did not have 1 day below 0.

[ORH_wxman]

Didn't the NAO, at least the CPC version of the NAO fail to register below 0.00 once in the entire 90 day period from 12/1-2/28 in 2007-2008? I believe only 1994-95 was the other winter where it did not have 1 day below 0.

It looks like the daily numbers have it negative from Dec 12-22, 2007...but I think a lot of it was way east based. Heights we well below avg over the Davis Straight and Greenland during that time...there was a big block over the UK and Scandinavia which I guess registered the number a bit negative.

After Dec 22, it only registered negative 4 more days, 0 of them in January.

[weatherMA]

THE OTHER THING WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR IS THERE APPEARS TOBE A DECENT SHOT OF CHILLY AIR IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. IF THESYSTEM TRACKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...IT MAY END UP COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOWACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SINCE WERE DEALING WITH A +NAOIF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT MORE IT WILL MAINLY BE INTHE FORM OF RAIN.

Basically rain is more likely but it could be snow if everything goes right. AEEKT

[Organizing Low]

december 07 the first 20 days were fookin epic

there was a grinch storm though afterwards

then the huge tropical BLOWTORCH in janaury, a torch not for the faint of heart.

[Typhoon Tip]

There is an aspect about all this that is very abstract, but one that I believe I'm going to wind up spot on about. Albeit virtually impossible to prove, it has to do with cryospheric momemtum - and perhaps equally if not more important, what has been hitting that throttle so hard this autumn. I was thinking perhaps the +AO; while certainly contributory, I don't believe that is the total equation. We saw as recent as 2006-2007 a record late autumn and early winter positive AO phase state but the cryosphere rate that year was less prodigious compared to what is observable now (to date).

The recovery rate has been fast, faster the usual - certainly relative to the current era of background GW. Greater in magnitude than any year to date since the mid 1960s; this, as of last week. Judging by the areal expanse as of yesterday's measure I cannot imagine that trend has alleviated.

If you think it can't turn cold and do so on a dime, guess again - you'd be judging poorly. I'm seeing all that momentum up N, and the CEFS extended flagging a collapsing NOA with rising PNA - those two teleconnectors in tandem with observed cold momentum phenomenon (that is palpable and measurable actually) should have no problem overwhelming the +EPO... Which is somewhat debatable in my mind; it may merely be held erroneously high. (Christ the PDO is against it for crying out loud). As I said before and please take this into consideration: a rising PNA is anti-correlated to a positive EPO.

I think folks just aren't happy unless they see and idealized pattern. You got to think about the totality of the system, however, because the viper isn't always lurking IN the box.

[TalcottWx]

december 07 the first 20 days were fookin epic

there was a grinch storm though afterwards

then the huge tropical BLOWTORCH in janaury, a torch not for the faint of heart.

Got lots of pictures from that winter. Was into photog that year lol

[Ginx snewx]

There is an aspect about all this that is very abstract, but one that I believe I'm going to wind up spot on about. Albeit virtually impossible to prove, it has to do with cryospheric momemtum - and perhaps equally if not more important, what has been hitting that throttle so hard this autumn. I was thinking perhaps the +AO; while certainly contributory, I don't believe that is the total equation. We saw as recent as 2006-2007 a record late autumn and early winter positive AO phase state but the cryosphere rate that year was less prodigious compared to what is observable now (to date).

The recovery rate has been fast, faster the usual - certainly relative to the current era of background GW. Greater in magnitude than any year to date since the mid 1960s; this, as of last week. Judging by the areal expanse as of yesterday's measure I cannot imagine that trend has alleviated.

If you think it can't turn cold and do so on a dime, guess again - you'd be judging poorly. I'm seeing all that momentum up N, and the CEFS extended flagging a collapsing NOA with rising PNA - those two teleconnectors in tandem with observed cold momentum phenomenon (that is palpable and measurable actually) should have no problem overwhelming the +EPO... Which is somewhat debatable in my mind; it may merely be held erroneously high. (Christ the PDO is against it for crying out loud). As I said before and please take this into consideration: a rising PNA is anti-correlated to a positive EPO.

I think folks just aren't happy unless they see and idealized pattern. You got to think about the totality of the system, however, because the viper isn't always lurking IN the box.

I agree, going out on a limb tonight, against modeling and our fine other Pros here. Pattern flips first week of Dec.

[CoastalWx]

There is an aspect about all this that is very abstract, but one that I believe I'm going to wind up spot on about. Albeit virtually impossible to prove, it has to do with cryospheric momemtum - and perhaps equally if not more important, what has been hitting that throttle so hard this autumn. I was thinking perhaps the +AO; while certainly contributory, I don't believe that is the total equation. We saw as recent as 2006-2007 a record late autumn and early winter positive AO phase state but the cryosphere rate that year was less prodigious compared to what is observable now (to date).

The recovery rate has been fast, faster the usual - certainly relative to the current era of background GW. Greater in magnitude than any year to date since the mid 1960s; this, as of last week. Judging by the areal expanse as of yesterday's measure I cannot imagine that trend has alleviated.

If you think it can't turn cold and do so on a dime, guess again - you'd be judging poorly. I'm seeing all that momentum up N, and the CEFS extended flagging a collapsing NOA with rising PNA - those two teleconnectors in tandem with observed cold momentum phenomenon (that is palpable and measurable actually) should have no problem overwhelming the +EPO... Which is somewhat debatable in my mind; it may merely be held erroneously high. (Christ the PDO is against it for crying out loud). As I said before and please take this into consideration: a rising PNA is anti-correlated to a positive EPO.

I think folks just aren't happy unless they see and idealized pattern. You got to think about the totality of the system, however, because the viper isn't always lurking IN the box.

Well if the hammer decides to drop, I think it may be one or two up and downs, before coming down, in terms of temps.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I agree, going out on a limb tonight, against modeling and our fine other Pros here. Pattern flips first week of Dec.

I think Dec 10 Oct 30 plus 6ish weeks...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hope everyone enjoyed their 1-2 " lollies.

Didn't see a flake.

Yea, Pete, you and I would gladly take Dec '07...some others not so much.

[CoastalWx]

Hope everyone enjoyed their 1-2 " lollies.

Didn't see a flake.

Yea, Pete, you and I would gladly take Dec '07...some others not so much.

As would I.

[Tropopause_Fold]

There is an aspect about all this that is very abstract, but one that I believe I'm going to wind up spot on about. Albeit virtually impossible to prove, it has to do with cryospheric momemtum - and perhaps equally if not more important, what has been hitting that throttle so hard this autumn. I was thinking perhaps the +AO; while certainly contributory, I don't believe that is the total equation. We saw as recent as 2006-2007 a record late autumn and early winter positive AO phase state but the cryosphere rate that year was less prodigious compared to what is observable now (to date).

The recovery rate has been fast, faster the usual - certainly relative to the current era of background GW. Greater in magnitude than any year to date since the mid 1960s; this, as of last week. Judging by the areal expanse as of yesterday's measure I cannot imagine that trend has alleviated.

If you think it can't turn cold and do so on a dime, guess again - you'd be judging poorly. I'm seeing all that momentum up N, and the CEFS extended flagging a collapsing NOA with rising PNA - those two teleconnectors in tandem with observed cold momentum phenomenon (that is palpable and measurable actually) should have no problem overwhelming the +EPO... Which is somewhat debatable in my mind; it may merely be held erroneously high. (Christ the PDO is against it for crying out loud). As I said before and please take this into consideration: a rising PNA is anti-correlated to a positive EPO.

I think folks just aren't happy unless they see and idealized pattern. You got to think about the totality of the system, however, because the viper isn't always lurking IN the box.

well the good thing is i don't think (at least not that i can recall) anyone has said "it can't turn cold". but, by the same token, are we talking relative to seasonal averages or relative to the current temperature regime? because in this pattern, when nearly half of the month has seen double digit + departures, "normal" would be "cold"

there's no "happy" or "sad" in this for me, lol, but i just don't see how we get sustained AOB normal temps inside of the next 10 to 14 days. can we run 2 or 3 days here and there, absolutely.

[CoastalWx]

Last time I felt like that prior to Dec '07 was Dec '95.

[ORH_wxman]

Last time I felt like that prior to Dec '07 was Dec '95.

What about December 1996? I think Ray liked that month too.

[CoastalWx]

What about December 1996? I think Ray liked that month too.

He was literally 5 miles from having an Oak obliterator. The old location of WSI in Billerica had no power in that with transformers blowing everywhere. LOL, he took a toaster bath in that.

[ORH_wxman]

Unless the vortex is removed from AK earlier than progged, I do not see how we attain sustained below avg cold prior to the 2nd week of December...most of the cold shots would be transient and not that impressive.

[CoastalWx]

I remember watching my thermometer hoping for a switch to snow. After I saw Cantore stain his draws with TSSN, the temp dropped to 36.6F in Hyde Park. That's as low as it got.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Unless the vortex is removed from AK earlier than progged, I do not see how we attain sustained below avg cold prior to the 2nd week of December...most of the cold shots would be transient and not that impressive.

Can a brother just get normal temps? Just sick of the +5s

[CoastalWx]

Unless the vortex is removed from AK earlier than progged, I do not see how we attain sustained below avg cold prior to the 2nd week of December...most of the cold shots would be transient and not that impressive.

Yeah I mean it can get cold briefly, but it will take a complete pattern change for sustained cold. I think we all agree that we still can sneak a storm amid a lousy pattern.