OKpowdah Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Models and patterns aside, I think it's important to constantly remind ourselves where we were last year. December was one disappointment after another until Boxing Day. We've already had an historic snow storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 And latent heat is a fancy term for the heat released from condensation. That much I know! I also have no clue about the mountain torque thing. Does this mean the tropical MJO system/pulse/whatever is steered as it heads over mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12/15-12/25 i got that date range written on my hand with a pen lol...you wrote it wrong! Begins 12/10 and is complete 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 lol...you wrote it wrong! Begins 12/10 and is complete 12/25. Just blotted it out and wrote it below..... That a good timeframe and i think your spot on with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Squirrels are enormous. They've never failed to portend well above normal snow. Not necessarily cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Squirrels are enormous. They've never failed to portend well above normal snow. Not necessarily cold though. Been so warm here the squirrels are putting the nuts back on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Been so warm here the squirrels are putting the nuts back on the ground. Aren't they fat down your way? I've never seen them this porky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Been so warm here the squirrels are dragging there nuts across the ground. They must be getting tired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Squirrels are enormous. They've never failed to portend well above normal snow. Not necessarily cold though. Can't tell the difference up here between the squirrels and groundhogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Anyone who doubts that the EURO is right and that the GFS is rushing things should just be taken out and flogged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That much I know! I also have no clue about the mountain torque thing. Does this mean the tropical MJO system/pulse/whatever is steered as it heads over mountains? This stuff I'm not really familiar with. It has to do with how the atmosphere responds to increased westerly winds (westerly momentum) and the increased friction from terrain over Asia. It can be anywhere in the world, but Asia is the starting point for favorable mtn torque events that lead to a more wintry pattern for us. It's all about angular momentum, which is always conserved. The atmosphere will make adjustments to this increased momentum and the increased friction or torque on the mountains. It's a pretty crazy, but cool concept. Sometimes what you get are these big ridges and a more amplified pattern in the Pacific with a slowdown in these winds. Usually results in a -EPO ridge and +PNA ridge out west. Sam can probably shed some light on this as he is more familiar with this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Last nights Euro run would normally have folks all in glee with the first chance at wintry conditions, this year because of Roctober there is little. Jerry may be right about full transistion to a pattern change but my thoughts are and continue to be that the first week of Dec marks the start of the change. Bye Bye death vortex. We are going from way above normal to normal and below with snow chances. sure there will be warmup but I highly doubt we go torchy. GEFS remains steadfast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Oscillations may be the name of the game this winter. Once we get the change somewhere between the 15th and 1st of January I hope it can hang tough for at least a few weeks. I kind of think we'll see 2 week halftime shows all winter. Call it the J Lo winter...lots of curves up and down with tons of junk in the trunk. I'd take a bootylicious winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Last nights Euro run would normally have folks all in glee with the first chance at wintry conditions, this year because of Roctober there is little. Jerry may be right about full transistion to a pattern change but my thoughts are and continue to be that the first week of Dec marks the start of the change. Bye Bye death vortex. We are going from way above normal to normal and below with snow chances. sure there will be warmup but I highly doubt we go torchy. GEFS remains steadfast. I don't think anyone is saying we won't see some alternating periods in the first week of December. I could see a couple SWFE in the beginning that may screw SNE, but it will usher in cooler air on the backside. Or, we could get lucky and sneak one through the posts like the Cowboys did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't think anyone is saying we won't see some alternating periods in the first week of December. I could see a couple SWFE in the beginning that may screw SNE, but it will usher in cooler air on the backside. Or, we could get lucky and sneak one through the posts like the Cowboys did. If it doesn't reach 60* every day, I consider it a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 If it doesn't reach 60* every day, I consider it a pattern change. LOL, I know. At least we may get rid of these crazy +15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 If it doesn't reach 60* every day, I consider it a pattern change. lol. nice 52F instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't think anyone is saying we won't see some alternating periods in the first week of December. I could see a couple SWFE in the beginning that may screw SNE, but it will usher in cooler air on the backside. Or, we could get lucky and sneak one through the posts like the Cowboys did. The Cowboys analogy reminds me.... In their first season as an expansion team...1960, my father scored Giants tickets.....4 for my friend and I and our dads. They were playing the 0-7 Cowboys and the Giants were rollling in the heyday of Tittle to Shofner. It was 12/4/60 and about 70 degrees. As an 8th grade weenie, I was downcast. We had some good cold early but the prior several weeks were torch city. The game ended up in a 28-28 tie and the Giants season kind of went downhill from there. 1 week later I awoke with warnings (unexpected at bed time) and temperatures dropping in the face of a north wind. My mother dragged me out of bed and handed me the pushbroom to sweep the garage of the buildup of oak leaves. I loved it as it was north facing and I watched the cirrus gather and lower. I go with her to pick up stuff from the deli for relatives coming over in the afternoon. Both of these relatives were NYC teachers...more on that in a moment. I was excited for winter again! I flip on the Giants-Redskins game and it was snowing very hard with Shoftner ending up in a snowbank on one of his receptions. Snow begain for me around 3 and it was light. Temperatures at that point were around 18-20 and the street of course whitened up quickly. I boldly called that NYC would close schools the next day and was ridiculed by the teacher relatives because it hadn't happened since WW2! Snow remained light and the people left. Around 9 it picked up and by 11 it was ripping. One of the great blizzards of my life and entry vouz of one of the all time great winters. Keep the faith folks...it's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 If it doesn't reach 60* every day, I consider it a pattern change. it's easy to grow accustomed to this and sort of forget what "normal" is this time of year. even today - it feels chilly, but for a good chunk of SNE, it'll still probably yield a + departure given nighttime readings. maybe some areas N of the pike and up toward your hood manage a -1 or -2 or something...but we haven't/won't sustain days like this strung together for quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 LOL, I know. At least we may get rid of these crazy +15 days. Yep. It's freaking freezing out there today. GFS doesn't look exciting for those of us south of Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The Cowboys analogy reminds me.... In their first season as an expansion team...1960, my father scored Giants tickets.....4 for my friend and I and our dads. They were playing the 0-7 Cowboys and the Giants were rollling in the heyday of Tittle to Shofner. It was 12/4/60 and about 70 degrees. As an 8th grade weenie, I was downcast. We had some good cold early but the prior several weeks were torch city. The game ended up in a 28-28 tie and the Giants season kind of went downhill from there. 1 week later I awoke with warnings (unexpected at bed time) and temperatures dropping in the face of a north wind. My mother dragged me out of bed and handed me the pushbroom to sweep the garage of the buildup of oak leaves. I loved it as it was north facing and I watched the cirrus gather and lower. I go with her to pick up stuff from the deli for relatives coming over in the afternoon. Both of these relatives were NYC teachers...more on that in a moment. I was excited for winter again! I flip on the Giants-Redskins game and it was snowing very hard with Shoftner ending up in a snowbank on one of his receptions. Snow begain for me around 3 and it was light. Temperatures at that point were around 18-20 and the street of course whitened up quickly. I boldly called that NYC would close schools the next day and was ridiculed by the teacher relatives because it hadn't happened since WW2! Snow remained light and the people left. Around 9 it picked up and by 11 it was ripping. One of the great blizzards of my life and entry vouz of one of the all time great winters. Keep the faith folks...it's coming! heh, heh...he said Tittle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't think anyone is saying we won't see some alternating periods in the first week of December. I could see a couple SWFE in the beginning that may screw SNE, but it will usher in cooler air on the backside. Or, we could get lucky and sneak one through the posts like the Cowboys did. Or we could get lucky and sneak the NAO below +2 sigma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 it's easy to grow accustomed to this and sort of forget what "normal" is this time of year. even today - it feels chilly, but for a good chunk of SNE, it'll still probably yield a + departure given nighttime readings. maybe some areas N of the pike and up toward your hood manage a -1 or -2 or something...but we haven't/won't sustain days like this strung together for quite some time. That's how I view it. It's not necessarily a change per se, as some of the trouble makers are still there....but it's a break from the October wx we've been having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Incidentally GFS is snow for the ski areas this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Or we could get lucky and sneak the NAO below +2 sigma. Hopefully it gets towards neutral in a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Hopefully it gets towards neutral in a couple of weeks. Give me EPO and PNA and the NAO can kiss my arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The Cowboys analogy reminds me.... In their first season as an expansion team...1960, my father scored Giants tickets.....4 for my friend and I and our dads. They were playing the 0-7 Cowboys and the Giants were rollling in the heyday of Tittle to Shofner. It was 12/4/60 and about 70 degrees. As an 8th grade weenie, I was downcast. We had some good cold early but the prior several weeks were torch city. The game ended up in a 28-28 tie and the Giants season kind of went downhill from there. 1 week later I awoke with warnings (unexpected at bed time) and temperatures dropping in the face of a north wind. My mother dragged me out of bed and handed me the pushbroom to sweep the garage of the buildup of oak leaves. I loved it as it was north facing and I watched the cirrus gather and lower. I go with her to pick up stuff from the deli for relatives coming over in the afternoon. Both of these relatives were NYC teachers...more on that in a moment. I was excited for winter again! I flip on the Giants-Redskins game and it was snowing very hard with Shoftner ending up in a snowbank on one of his receptions. Snow begain for me around 3 and it was light. Temperatures at that point were around 18-20 and the street of course whitened up quickly. I boldly called that NYC would close schools the next day and was ridiculed by the teacher relatives because it hadn't happened since WW2! Snow remained light and the people left. Around 9 it picked up and by 11 it was ripping. One of the great blizzards of my life and entry vouz of one of the all time great winters. Keep the faith folks...it's coming! Good story...nothing beats a blizzard when you are a young weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That's how I view it. It's not necessarily a change per se, as some of the trouble makers are still there....but it's a break from the October wx we've been having. Be careful of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Hopefully it gets towards neutral in a couple of weeks. 00z EC and EC ensembles have a slightly negative west NAO for days 9 and 10...hopefully that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.