NorEastermass128 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The pattern change 12/10 and us complete 12/25. Good night folks. Stay the course...I'm growing wary though. We're due for a clunker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 GEFS have a somewhat promising look for first week in December but not sure any cold/snow has staying power with +EPO still ready to reload. Maybe a 3-5 day chill and possible storminess before we resurrect the torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 So let's here the latest bad news about the 0Z Euro so we can go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Euro ensembles trended a bit weaker with the Ak vortex and try to set up a weak ridging in Canada, but troughig exists in the sw too. So we have somewhat of a gradient pattern possible in the beginning of December, but I don't see much in the way of colder air. Maybe a day or two below normal. What we really could use is a -NAO, but that ain't happening for a while. Still looks like the same old story, perhaps less of a true torch, but we are also naturally cooling down anyways as we head into December. The GFS ensembles would be nice, but not sure how stable they are just by looking at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The euro has changed such that It's fairly normal with perhaps a few days even below to start December with snow chances as well. But.....the pattern change will begin 12/10 and be complete by 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The euro has changed such that It's fairly normal with perhaps a few days even below to start December with snow chances as well. But.....the pattern change will begin 12/10 and be complete by 12/25. Have no fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Euro ensembles trended a bit weaker with the Ak vortex and try to set up a weak ridging in Canada, but troughig exists in the sw too. So we have somewhat of a gradient pattern possible in the beginning of December, but I don't see much in the way of colder air. Maybe a day or two below normal. What we really could use is a -NAO, but that ain't happening for a while. Still looks like the same old story, perhaps less of a true torch, but we are also naturally cooling down anyways as we head into December. The GFS ensembles would be nice, but not sure how stable they are just by looking at them. We pinch off the warmup after next Sat to our south. The op/en runs are fairly seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 We pinch off the warmup after next Sat to our south. The op/en runs are fairly seasonable. I smell a few SWFE for NNE in the beginning of December. Even of SNE gets screwed, it will probably offer transient cold shots. That vortex however, is such a stable feature. I think what we have to hope for, is a retreat towards Kamchatka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I smell a few SWFE for NNE in the beginning of December. Even of SNE gets screwed, it will probably offer transient cold shots. That vortex however, is such a stable feature. I think what we have to hope for, is a retreat towards Kamchatka. Fairbanks is running a -9 mtd. It was cold (not as but still solidly below normal) in November 2008 and 2009) suggesting to me that while this feature is particularly intense this year, it happens on good winters for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Fairbanks is running a -9 mtd. It was cold (not as but still solidly below normal) in November 2008 and 2009) suggesting to me that while this feature is particularly intense this year, it happens on good winters for November. Even is we don't get ridging like we got last year...any little thing we can do to weaken or dislodge that vortex will help bring some cold here. I suppose if there is any good news, it's not like we have taken steps back over the last couple of days. The MJO is progged to go around the horn into P5-6 by early December. That could help reshuffle the deck, if you will. We'll need it, because that vortex..even retrograding a little, still shoves Pacific air into Canada. We need a complete change. Bring that trough into Kamchatka, slow down the flow and pump the ridge up into AK. I'm hoping for the weeklies to continue what they had Thursday. The GFS ensembles try and do this, but I just think they are too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 We pinch off the warmup after next Sat to our south. The op/en runs are fairly seasonable. Are those two days as torchy as before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Nice looking Euro run last night for the week after the holiday weekend.. That is a nice wintry pattern..Big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Nice looking Euro run last night for the week after the holiday weekend.. That is a nice wintry pattern..Big changes You're going too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 You're going too far. No I'm not. It was a very good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 No I'm not. It was a very good run LOL, 10 days out on an op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 LOL, 10 days out on an op run. It;s days 7-10 not day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 LOL, 10 days out on an op run. In Kevin's defense, he said it was a good looking run. He did not say that it was going to verify--I don't think he did anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It;s days 7-10 not day 10 Transient stuff dude. We could get a few colder shots, but I don't see it long lasting. Again, it goes back to what we have been saying. You can sneak some stuff in, but I don't see anything sustainable right now. SNE looks to be on the gradient too in early December. If it comes in early, great, but I don't see a pattern change in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's interesting that nrn Hemi snow cover is so prevalent right now. The air near the poles is absolutely frigid. If we get any blocking in December, look out. Problem is, ain't no blocking in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 In Kevin's defense, he said it was a good looking run. He did not say that it was going to verify--I don't think he did anyway. moneypitjohnniecochran? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 moneypitjohnniecochran? If that pattern doesn't fit, you must acquit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 6Z Nam .... The 850 0C line really never gets much above an ART to RUT line on the 6Z GFS with this weeks event. Powderfreak is looking good. Are those two days as torchy as before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 If that pattern doesn't fit, you must acquit. Well played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's interesting that nrn Hemi snow cover is so prevalent right now. The air near the poles is absolutely frigid. If we get any blocking in December, look out. Problem is, ain't no blocking in sight. It's coming. Models have been hinting at a change but typically they bring it in too early. Late December through mid march will bring back memories of winters of yore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Well played LOL. I wonder if Jerry is involved in such shenanigans..... http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/11/20/ohio-woman-faces-jail-time-for-feeding-squirrels/#ixzz1eE5kV0WC?test=latestnews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's coming. Models have been hinting at a change but typically they bring it in too early. Late December through mid march will bring back memories of winters of yore. As long as it isn't the winter of eeyore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Transient shots and a few snow events through December 15th would be nothing to complain about from a historical perspective. It's a rare year that truly locks in before mid December. Jerry's timing would be fine. Transient stuff dude. We could get a few colder shots, but I don't see it long lasting. Again, it goes back to what we have been saying. You can sneak some stuff in, but I don't see anything sustainable right now. SNE looks to be on the gradient too in early December. If it comes in early, great, but I don't see a pattern change in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 In Kevin's defense, he said it was a good looking run. He did not say that it was going to verify--I don't think he did anyway. Right..not sure what Scooter is talking about. It was agreat run of the Euro if you like winter is what i said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Right..not sure what Scooter is talking about. It was agreat run of the Euro if you like winter is what i said Well if you want to hang your hopes on it, by all means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Transient shots and a few snow events through December 15th would be nothing to complain about from a historical perspective. It's a rare year that truly locks in before mid December. Jerry's timing would be fine. But even those aren't a given..especially out this way. We are all thinking mid month or so...give it take 5 days. I wouldn't be shocked if it is after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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