Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Let us pray.... 18z GFS looks a heck of a lot better in the Dec 1-5 time frame. That would actually result in seasonable to a bit below temps with H85s going below -10C at times. Of course, its the long range of the 18z GFS. But we gotta grasp at straws at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Best case scenario for early December IMHO is something like Ryan mentioned earlier...enough of a +PNA that we get some seasonable air in here for several days,. maybe a tad below average, but it doesn't really last more than 3-5 days. At least it would be better than the 36 hour cold shots we've been getting recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Yeah, Its the op run, But the ensembles have that signal as well, The ensembles also look better with the weds storm Yeah I saw your post in the storm thread... I gotta go look at those. The GFS is further north than the ECM and CMC. The later two really aren't all that bad for NNE down into CNE. We would mix and change to rain but not before something that at least resembles interesting winter weather. Both 12z ECM and CMC show a good front-end dump and also the chance for another 1-3" on the backside. It would at least be something to break up the monotony of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Best case scenario for early December IMHO is something like Ryan mentioned earlier...enough of a +PNA that we get some seasonable air in here for several days,. maybe a tad below average, but it doesn't really last more than 3-5 days. At least it would be better than the 36 hour cold shots we've been getting recently. Yeah, 3-5 days would be nice instead of 1-2 days... but even still the storm track isn't good so even if it does get seasonable or even a bit below for a couple of days, it looks like a dry cold. This is a pattern where it'll warm up just in time for the rain to begin haha. We'd have to get very lucky to be on the cold side of any significant area of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The snow guns could fire, Upslope possibilities, LES chances here.... Infinitely better than this junk. I don't expect a serious synoptic snow threat before mid December anyway. Yeah, 3-5 days would be nice instead of 1-2 days... but even still the storm track isn't good so even if it does get seasonable or even a bit below for a couple of days, it looks like a dry cold. This is a pattern where it'll warm up just in time for the rain to begin haha. We'd have to get very lucky to be on the cold side of any significant area of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Best case scenario for early December IMHO is something like Ryan mentioned earlier...enough of a +PNA that we get some seasonable air in here for several days,. maybe a tad below average, but it doesn't really last more than 3-5 days. At least it would be better than the 36 hour cold shots we've been getting recently. And that my friends is a pattern change, first week of Dec, then we establish consistency. Say goodbye to the death vortex Dec 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 And that my friends is a pattern change, first week of Dec, then we establish consistency. Say goodbye to the death vortex Dec 1. I don't think the folks in Willow will be that bummed to see it leave. Just punishing cold there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 op Euro is just ripping a monster Pac jet into British Columbia next weekend. Besides the ridging over us that's a pretty nasty pattern for most of CONUS/Canada. Doesn't look too plausible to have a 0 R-wave count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I don't think the folks in Willow will be that bummed to see it leave. Just punishing cold there. My bro is coming out here Dec 8 for Moms 85 th, told me today he is looking forward to the beach. LOL. I told home he will be bringing the cold with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 And that my friends is a pattern change, first week of Dec, then we establish consistency. Say goodbye to the death vortex Dec 1. I do not consider it a pattern change when the vortex just comes back...its like a transient retrogression of the vortex but then it rotates over AK again and we are still stuck with the same problem. More like a band aid for a gunshot wound IMHO. I think our best chance at flushing the vortex in a more meaningful manner comes post-Dec 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I do not consider it a pattern change when the vortex just comes back...its like a transient retrogression of the vortex but then it rotates over AK again and we are still stuck with the same problem. More like a band aid for a gunshot wound IMHO. I think our best chance at flushing the vortex in a more meaningful manner comes post-Dec 10th. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I do not consider it a pattern change when the vortex just comes back...its like a transient retrogression of the vortex but then it rotates over AK again and we are still stuck with the same problem. More like a band aid for a gunshot wound IMHO. I think our best chance at flushing the vortex in a more meaningful manner comes post-Dec 10th. If the Euro ENS are right. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Agreed. When we go from way above normal with transient shots of cold to normal with extended periods of colder how is that not a change from our current pattern. If I see a monster vortex in AK, neg PNA, no NAO after Dec 1 for an extended period then I will agree with you. right now GEFS says pattern change. It led the way last year, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I do not consider it a pattern change when the vortex just comes back...its like a transient retrogression of the vortex but then it rotates over AK again and we are still stuck with the same problem. More like a band aid for a gunshot wound IMHO. I think our best chance at flushing the vortex in a more meaningful manner comes post-Dec 10th. What sort of mechanism can bounce the vort out of AK? Is there a disturbance that can disrupt whatever it is that is keeping that in place? Sort of like the recurving typhoon thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 What sort of mechanism can bounce the vort out of AK? Is there a disturbance that can disrupt whatever it is that is keeping that in place? Sort of like the recurving typhoon thing? A potent MJO wave is a good start...mountain torque stuff that is related that HM talks about. I'm not an expert in that stuff, but its something disruptive enough that can shuffle the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 My bro is coming out here Dec 8 for Moms 85 th, told me today he is looking forward to the beach. LOL. I told home he will be bringing the cold with him. Congrats to Mom! My buddy is coming down for 6 weeks just before the holidays. He's a good luck charm when it comes to snow and cold. We'll be in good shape here before you know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 John, I thought you did not like injecting humor in these... jk.... good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'd like a forecast based upon what mets are seeing now..for the Dec 2nd-$th time frame. HEading to Buffalo that wekend for the Bills game. Based upon modelling it looks like it may be timed right for a decent cold shot and LES chances. Lord knows the lakes are bathwater warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 This might be flawed logic in Willow's forecast. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE TO 15 BELOW...WARMEST IN WINDY AREAS. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH TALKEETNA NORTH. WIND CHILLS TO 35 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 A potent MJO wave is a good start...mountain torque stuff that is related that HM talks about. I'm not an expert in that stuff, but its something disruptive enough that can shuffle the deck. Well, hopefully it can make its way with enough potency that it kills that vortex. Does the MJO also affect things like Greenland blocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'd like a forecast based upon what mets are seeing now..for the Dec 2nd-$th time frame. HEading to Buffalo that wekend for the Bills game. Based upon modelling it looks like it may be timed right for a decent cold shot and LES chances. Lord knows the lakes are bathwater warm Definitely prime time for LES. Have you ever been in a heavy LES band? Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 This might be flawed logic in Willow's forecast. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE TO 15 BELOW...WARMEST IN WINDY AREAS. NORTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. LOCAL GUSTS 20 TO 35 MPH TALKEETNA NORTH. WIND CHILLS TO 35 BELOW TOWARD THE PARK. Awesome wording choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Definitely prime time for LES. Have you ever been in a heavy LES band? Awesome. That would be another notch in his weenie belt for 2011...trapped in Buffalo by 72" of LES When I used to do work out there, I could not get over those dumps. But they really know how to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Definitely prime time for LES. Have you ever been in a heavy LES band? Awesome. Great time in Jamestown, NY in one. I think that's the only good time one might be able to have there now that I think of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Sucks. Lol. Feel bad for the ski resorts...or anyone else that actually *needs* cold and snow. Phil yep me too. I've only been skiing for a few years but we've been very fortune to hit the northern resorts with 50%+ of the trails open Xmas week. That's not happening this year barring a major change because they're not able to effectively build the bases in the mid to lower mountain right now. We will see how it goes in the next 2-3 weeks, they can recover to some extent with some big snows between the 10-25th, if we get to Xmas and they've had no natural snow these few weeks of warmer weather are going to hurt bad. Plus nobody wants to ski. Heck I'm still mowing as are most of my neighbors. The lawn is still growing and the seed put down in early October has come in fully. I figure I have one more mow left at the end of next week/next weekend...it's nuts. It's 57 degrees at 730pm on 11/20...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Definitely prime time for LES. Have you ever been in a heavy LES band? Awesome. No other than some quick squalls/snowshowers in CT that were lake induced..I've never seen one/been in one..so I'm hoping that weekend provides the goods. I hope Will, Scooter, Ryan, Will might be able to provide some insight on the basic pattern they see for that 1st weekend of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'd like a forecast based upon what mets are seeing now..for the Dec 2nd-$th time frame. HEading to Buffalo that wekend for the Bills game. Based upon modelling it looks like it may be timed right for a decent cold shot and LES chances. Lord knows the lakes are bathwater warm It might not be a terrible time for that brief +PNA cold shot...you might get some LES there if the winds can be W or WSW enough. That weekend as of right now, definitely looks to be the best time for that cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Definitely primed for major LES with the warm wx keeping them so warm. Friday's puny little event was under forecast here. I'd like a forecast based upon what mets are seeing now..for the Dec 2nd-$th time frame. HEading to Buffalo that wekend for the Bills game. Based upon modelling it looks like it may be timed right for a decent cold shot and LES chances. Lord knows the lakes are bathwater warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It might not be a terrible time for that brief +PNA cold shot...you might get some LES there if the winds can be W or WSW enough. That weekend as of right now, definitely looks to be the best time for that cold shot. Thanks..My only worry is we hit them on the thruway driving out there that Saturday morning.. I'd love them to be flying for the game and tailgating on Sunday..Then we come back Monday..MAybe we'll get a nice Miller B that weekend too for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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