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Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond


ORH_wxman

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Euro ensembles may allow for a brief period of seasonable or slightly below normal wx during the week after Thanksgiving as the +EPO relaxes a bit with the Alaska vortex retrograding a bit toward the Bering Sea.

Also during that time frame there appears to be a weak +PNA/-NAO signal. Not expecting big cold with NOAM being pretty warm with still an active Pac jet slamming into B.C.

Unfortunately it appears to be temporary as the Euro ens mean reestablishes the +EPO by Dec 3/4.

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Euro ensembles may allow for a brief period of seasonable or slightly below normal wx during the week after Thanksgiving as the +EPO relaxes a bit with the Alaska vortex retrograding a bit toward the Bering Sea.

Also during that time frame there appears to be a weak +PNA/-NAO signal. Not expecting big cold with NOAM being pretty warm with still an active Pac jet slamming into B.C.

Unfortunately it appears to be temporary as the Euro ens mean reestablishes the +EPO by Dec 3/4.

it can only go so far...

post-821-0-52928700-1321822798.jpg

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<img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/unsure.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':unsure:' /> The actual favorable pattern started on 12/2 last winter.

Actually it wasnt till January. Sure we had the storm but it was an island of cold in a sea of warm. 12/3 started a 10 day cold snap before it was mainly above normal for the rest of the month. Mid December at BOS Had 3 days well up in the 50s.

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hmmm I disagree, plenty of warmth around xmas and our snow came starting boxing day.

No, it was well before Xmas...we had some close misses and below average temps. The Cape got smoked with a big storm pre-Xmas. It really started around 12/14. We had a pretty nice cold shot that lasted from 12/2 to 12/10 too. Way different than this year it looks like.

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:unsure: The actual favorable pattern started on 12/2 last winter.

hmmm I disagree, plenty of warmth around xmas and our snow came starting boxing day.

Actually it wasnt till January. Sure we had the storm but it was an island of cold in a sea of warm. 12/3 started a 10 day cold snap before it was mainly above normal for the rest of the month. Mid December at BOS Had 3 days well up in the 50s.

No, it was well before Xmas...we had some close misses and below average temps. The Cape got smoked with a big storm pre-Xmas. It really started around 12/14. We had a pretty nice cold shot that lasted from 12/2 to 12/10 too. Way different than this year it looks like.

Well, we all beg to differ

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Well, we all beg to differ

We had sustained at or below average temps after the 13th with several chances...one which produced a big Cape event (and a light snow event for eastern MA/RI) and one which produced a HECS for NJ and a SECS/MECS for SNE on the 26th.

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No, it was well before Xmas...we had some close misses and below average temps. The Cape got smoked with a big storm pre-Xmas. It really started around 12/14. We had a pretty nice cold shot that lasted from 12/2 to 12/10 too. Way different than this year it looks like.

Oh well...

My gamble on oil might pay off this year

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Yep a suppressed out to sea pattern overall....from my perspective. But at least it was cold.

We had sustained at or below average temps after the 13th with several chances...one which produced a big Cape event (and a light snow event for eastern MA/RI) and one which produced a HECS for NJ and a SECS/MECS for SNE on the 26th.

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18z GFS looks a heck of a lot better in the Dec 1-5 time frame. That would actually result in seasonable to a bit below temps with H85s going below -10C at times.

Of course, its the long range of the 18z GFS. But we gotta grasp at straws at this point.

Yeah, Its the op run, But the ensembles have that signal as well, The ensembles also look better with the weds storm

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