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Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond


ORH_wxman

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I anyone else having trouble connecting to NCEP sites ?

Occasionally I get this: "...can't find the server at www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov." over the past month, and it is doing it again today.

Ah, I just cycled my Lynksys and it came back. Weird how it selectively fails these government sites though - never any other.

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I think there will be plenty of conflicting signals until we get around a week out from the real pattern change. So the met's in here (being naturally cautious as per their training) can't forecast it for awhile. But weenies can if they want. :)

I think we'll be able to see the writing on the wall. If they start getting closer...d14...d12...d10 and so on..you'll know it's coming for sure. The key is to not always have this change at T+384hr.

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I get that sort of thing often with their models page when I don't use the back button to go back to the beginning model menu - such as when I want to start viewing a new run. I would think I should be able to just reload the GFS and see the 18Z pop up later today, but lots of times that action would trigger an error message.

I anyone else having trouble connecting to NCEP sites ?

Occasionally I get this: "...can't find the server at www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov." over the past month, and it is doing it again today.

Ah, I just cycled my Lynksys and it came back. Weird how it selectively fails these government sites though - never any other.

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I get that sort of thing often with their models page when I don't use the back button to go back to the beginning model menu - such as when I want to start viewing a new run. I would think I should be able to just reload the GFS and see the 18Z pop up later today, but lots of times that action would trigger an error message.

It may have been a false positive... I cycled the Linksys and it came back for 2 minutes, then they went back to "can't find the server at www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov." ...Not sure it is the motem now... Could be a router in my local Web area for all I know... I suspect it is not really NCEP though.

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It may have been a false positive... I cycled the Linksys and it came back for 2 minutes, then they went back to "can't find the server at www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov." ...Not sure it is the motem now... Could be a router in my local Web area for all I know... I suspect it is not really NCEP though.

Don S has a great site

http://wintercenter.homestead.com/weather3.html

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Everybody keeps talking about how far above normal we are. But this is par for the course around the NE. We can be way above normal or way below normal in later Nov/early Dec. It just depends on when the pattern flip to winter occurs. So really daily norms around this volatile time are sort of irrelevant.

Change begins 12/10 and is in place by 12/25.

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