Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 GFS MOS is an absolute 7 day torch. Every day above normal... some significantly. It's ugly but it's nice, it's 60 degrees before 11 in late November. Bring on the 70s and skeeters. I think a lot of us really like early season snows. I know I do around the holidays so this whacks it. But there's always hope for Jan-Mar this year. I don't think 95-96 started early. I do think the reality is early season pond skating is going to not happen this year and early season skiing is not likely to be very good either unless you like paying full price to ski on a fraction of trails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Thanksgiving at my crib and hopefully the weather cooperates. Of course, I would love 1989 repeated, but that ain't gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Unfortunately, they are hogging up all the cold right now. It's not a forever thing. There will be a flip and the hammer will drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 It's ugly but it's nice, it's 60 degrees before 11 in late November. Bring on the 70s and skeeters. I think a lot of us really like early season snows. I know I do around the holidays so this whacks it. But there's always hope for Jan-Mar this year. I don't think 95-96 started early. I do think the reality is early season pond skating is going to not happen this year and early season skiing is not likely to be very good either unless you like paying full price to ski on a fraction of trails. We had a teaser in late November of '95, but the big show started about 10-15 days before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 It's not a forever thing. There will be a flip and the hammer will drop. Drop a few of these into your buns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 NAM mostly snow for Saddleback area Are you up there yet? Looking forward to those observations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Just get that disaster out by Thanksgiving so at least we can have some sun. Should I talk to my coach and get out on Tuesday? Seems like the better day to travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Are you up there yet? Looking forward to those observations... 1 week to go in the period.. sticking around for a XC reunion Saturday then heading up. I didn't realize how late Saddleback opens (Dec 17) at first. I guess they don't get a lot of people up that way early in the season so why go through all the effort of making snow between 60 degree torches. I know they had 4" in the event a little while back and probably not much since.. then I'll check what they get this Wednesday so I can have a decent estimate of the total this year. edit: Oh apparently the mountain reported 3.5 the 17th/18th, I'll have to see if the town got that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Should I talk to my coach and get out on Tuesday? Seems like the better day to travel. Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty tough. First in the MA and then spreading into the northeast hubs Wednesday. Could be tough with IFR conditions and delays. Tuesday looks tough down there, but should be fine at Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I started up a storm thread for Wednesday's disaster. I merged Powderfreaks post so it looks like he started the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 We had a teaser in late November of '95, but the big show started about 10-15 days before Christmas. My winter forecast no long term prolonged cold, up and down winter that from this point on forward ends up near averages for snowfall in most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The idea of a SSW this January has been something I have liked for a while now. All the years with a setup similar to 2011-12 had a substantial SSW/MMW and some of my favorite years had it in January. It is quite possible that a majority of January and February come in cooler than normal across the eastern US, but it depends on how fast this all occurs. Some of you are arguing for a late January response, which is perfectly reasonable. However, if the MJO continues to remain faster than normal, you are going to get a tropical boost much sooner than that in the month, possibly jump-starting the SSW. Whenever this period occurs, it will have significant cold / snow and be similar to the last couple of years' outcomes in terms of wintry extremes. The potential exists for historic snow / cold with this particular round of -AO and the timing of it couldn't be better (or worse) for significant cold. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I started up a storm thread for Wednesday's disaster. I merged Powderfreaks post so it looks like he started the thread. http://www.americanw...3-storm-threat/ Appropriate seeing that he and Vim Toot are the only ones who give a $hit about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 FTW Personally I think that's rushing it a bit.. I like the idea of lat jan or Feb before the possibility of any sustained blocking. It's going to take a lot to disrupt the stratosphere the way it is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 1 week to go in the period.. sticking around for a XC reunion Saturday then heading up. I didn't realize how late Saddleback opens (Dec 17) at first. I guess they don't get a lot of people up that way early in the season so why go through all the effort of making snow between 60 degree torches. I know they had 4" in the event a little while back and probably not much since.. then I'll check what they get this Wednesday so I can have a decent estimate of the total this year. edit: Oh apparently the mountain reported 3.5 the 17th/18th, I'll have to see if the town got that too. Oh yeah it doesn't make a lot of sense for some of the smaller areas to open before mid-December. I mean the major destination resorts lose money till that point but they have gotten in the habit of opening in November for the passholders (ie. you pay a LOT of money for a seasons pass and for that we make a good faith effort to open as early as feasible and stay open till late April). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Personally I think that's rushing it a bit.. I like the idea of lat jan or Feb before the possibility of any sustained blocking. It's going to take a lot to disrupt the stratosphere the way it is right now. We don't need blocking to get snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Thanksgiving at my crib and hopefully the weather cooperates. Of course, I would love 1989 repeated, but that ain't gonna happen. A 7/10/89 repeat would be SICK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 A couple big deep interior dumps in November 1995. I probably would have been hammered here, but I was at 250' in the Hudson Valley at the time. But Nov. 1995 was a colder month so analog not too good. We had a teaser in late November of '95, but the big show started about 10-15 days before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Nat Geo, tornado swarm on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 We don't need blocking to get snow events. fortunately not, but I wouldn't expect any sustained cold or snow pack. Here is a composite of years with a similar stratosphere to this November. Widespread +3-4 torch for a 2 month period (Dec-Jan). I am forecasting something similar to this, perhaps just toned back a little. Northern plains I might forecast near average b/c of the -PDO bringing periodic cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Although I'm enjoying the warmth for outdoor activities it's also allowing the ticks to proliferate deep into the season. Came in and felt a pain in my leg and sure enough I had one lodged in my thigh. Luckily I'm really sensitive to them and it wasn't bloated so she probably wasn't there long. My least favorite insect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 A 7/10/89 repeat would be SICK. Yeah... you'd be stuck selling popcorn at a little league game with the weather radio going off in your bedroom and an F4 ripping through New Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The GFS is catastrophic through the first few days of December anyway. AK vortex finally weakens after H300 and more hope. But might as well just give up on winter for two weeks. Except for those folks mainly above 44N that have a shot with this weeks storm. Yeah... you'd be stuck selling popcorn at a little league game with the weather radio going off in your bedroom and an F4 ripping through New Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The GFS is catastrophic through the first few days of December anyway. No kidding Logan. I'm starting to suspect we may have a torch December. Our only hope now is that there is a flip towards the end of December similar to December 1993. I note how a similar brief cold shot occurred in my area (Toronto/Ottawa) around november 20,1993 and how the record low in Fairbanks today was set in 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Enjoy the frozen precip. this week there anyway.... No kidding Logan. I'm starting to suspect we may have a torch December. Our only hope now is that there is a flip towards the end of December similar to December 1993. I note how a similar brief cold shot occurred in my area (Toronto/Ottawa) around november 20,1993 and how the record low in Fairbanks today was set in 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 fortunately not, but I wouldn't expect any sustained cold or snow pack. Here is a composite of years with a similar stratosphere to this November. Widespread +3-4 torch for a 2 month period (Dec-Jan). I am forecasting something similar to this, perhaps just toned back a little. Northern plains I might forecast near average b/c of the -PDO bringing periodic cold shots. Several El Nino years in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 fortunately not, but I wouldn't expect any sustained cold or snow pack. Here is a composite of years with a similar stratosphere to this November. Widespread +3-4 torch for a 2 month period (Dec-Jan). I am forecasting something similar to this, perhaps just toned back a little. Northern plains I might forecast near average b/c of the -PDO bringing periodic cold shots. Not a great outlook unfortunately, but I've been suspecting this could happen for awhile. Statistically and historically, Toronto/Ottawa do not get cold, snowy winters following torch Octobers and Novembers. Even October 2006 was below normal in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Enjoy the frozen precip. this week there anyway.... Maybe in Ottawa they will...I'm in Toronto for school this year, so it'll be just plain old rain for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Several El Nino years in there. still an exceptionally strong signal, and three of the 7 years are Ninas. 56-57, 71-72, and 88-89 which are similar to the other 4 (warm overall, but 56-57 and 71-72 have a stripe of cold across the northern tier) That's why I said I'd tone it back a bit especially in the northern plains where things could go either way because of the -PDO/Nina signal for cold. But otherwise the Nina signal matches well with the stratosphere signal for warmth strongest over the SE US. 56-57 and 71-72 could be good analog years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Just hang in there guys... Another 336 hours left of this crappy pattern! I'm going to pretend that far out isn't a fantasy. Sent from my PG86100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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