Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 IMO... What's gonna happen is we'll see subtle hints of the pattern change sporadically in ensembles, the occasional op. run, etc. Then all of a sudden when they get a handle on it all of the guidance will jump in that direction. Maybe the truth is not until December 10th etc....who knows. After today that is a thing of the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I wouldn't count on much backside action at all. Shouldn't that be left for another thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Will disputed it, but I feel like a month later this would have worked out. The center jump and 850's maybe 3 or 4 C colder going in.... But on November 23rd probably not,,,,, BOX seems less definitive than you on that bolded statement: EVEN IF THIS TRACK WERE TO VERIFY...STILL THINKING IT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MOST OF ANY SNOW CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Good news. You're coming off the cliff. From what I can tell, Kevin's attitude toward the winter the past two weeks has been as mercurial as the diurnal temp swing in the desrt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Mega torch inbound later next week into early December, then winter gradually takes hold mid month in a step down process.........everything on track. Winter never showed up here to nearly Jan 1 last year and I got 70 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Mega torch inbound later next week into early December, then winter gradually takes hold mid month in a step down process.........everything on track. Winter never showed up here to nearly Jan 1 last year and I got 70 inches of snow. LOL..Guess you forgot the Boxing day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Keep telling yourself that. Are you drunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 LOL..Guess you forgot the Boxing day storm I did? I said nearly Jan 1 which it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Are you drunk? Dude, we'll have another +10 after T-day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 At least the mega + departures appear to be done after the 28th or so, but the ensembles are known to smooth out too. They might not have a complete handle on any specifics. it cools, but the flow appears rather zonal with still above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 At least the mega + departures appear to be done after the 28th or so, but the ensembles are known to smooth out too. They might not have a complete handle on any specifics. it cools, but the flow appears rather zonal with still above normal temps. Still means snow inland away from water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Still means snow inland away from water Embrace the warmth. Remember how nice it feels when you're running the 5K in those plum smuggling running shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Still means snow inland away from water As opposed to "inland on the water". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The problem we have here is that most of us are dissatisfied with the amount of winter we get as per seasonal normals. If you average it all out you only get consistent winter wx from maybe Dec. 20 through March 10. Some years a bit earlier. Some years a bit later. Around here I may do better, but I'm talking where most people in this thread live. So you have people who love snow and cold as a hobby and have to be satisfied with 3 months or less of it out of 12. So things are gonna get testy when we have these perfectly normal (in the broader climo sense) later starts to winter. I did? I said nearly Jan 1 which it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 As far as Thanksgiving goes... Around here you can pretty much split it down the middle between the colder and snowier ones and the mild to very mild ones. Both can be true and both are really inside that broad envelope of normalcy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Embrace the warmth. Remember how nice it feels when you're running the 5K in those plum smuggling running shorts. This has been an unreal stretch of warmth this fall. Let's hope we do start to see changes come Dec 1. I'm enjoying this weather but it'll be nice to start tracking some real winter threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 It's been unreal to some extent ..though I take your word for it since I was in Europe for most of it thankfully.... But looking back over 40 years (ouch) of wx memories.... I can probably find at least a half dozen or maybe even 10 years where November was really mild and thankless. So maybe it is well above daily norms, but not "abnormal". Of course it sux.... This has been an unreal stretch of warmth this fall. Let's hope we do start to see changes come Dec 1. I'm enjoying this weather but it'll be nice to start tracking some real winter threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 This has been an unreal stretch of warmth this fall. Let's hope we do start to see changes come Dec 1. I'm enjoying this weather but it'll be nice to start tracking some real winter threats. It's boring as hell. People can spin it or wish cast it all they want, but a change to sustained cold and snow just isn't in the cards right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The last 2 cycles of the operational GFS have finally ...after some 10 cycles or more, come around to the EXTREMELY tightly clustered 1.5SD rise in the PNA prognosticated by the CPC. CDC has done one of their patented stoppages of calculating their values for no apparent reason, episodes, so not sure what is going on with the low level wind flux anomalies the CDC uses (vs CPC's geopotential anomalies). Whether the EPO is on the same page bares less relevance. There is really too, too much emphasis being placed on that particular teleconnector; those doing so are allowing a very myopic overview of the entire system guide their reasoning - which is parlaying into a emotional drive, too. Tsk, tsk. I was reminiscing through the Kocin/Ucellini books the other night and came across a few notable East Coast storms that took place with a +EPO feature, while there was a however-transient at least a +PNAP ridging passing through the west. Over the years I have painfully, tediously so tried to explain the perils of failing to disconnect one's mirth from the weather. For one, more than just the cliche' over this being only November, the objectivity of this thread at times teetered with an embarrassing failure to be blunt. If I were a anonymous Met out there that heard of American, and wanted to see for his/her self, it may not trigger a favorable review. Sure, not to be a hypocrite, sometimes for dark humor I have probably helped perpetuate some of that stigma, admittedly. But, at the end of the day, more in jest. You got to have other hobbies - this goes for the red taggies too . I was at times somewhat bemused as of late when I sited specific reasons why it looked to be turning colder post the 15th of the month, in stages, and instead the next 2 days worth of posts hurled sardonic, backhanded barbs pointed to being doomed until circa December whenever. Here's the issue: you got to do stuff during the "off seasons", those quite times between eras of potency. They will allow you to derive joy regardless. Yes, yes, yes, I am a weather fanatic. I chose this as my blood, sweat, and tearing collegiate career, made it through, and use it for Environmental Science - related software, while maintaining a vigil and commitment to the "art" of middle and extended range forecasting; admittedly, using Internet forums as a proverbial podium much of the time, sure. But, I am also a writer, a runner, a cooking enthusiast, a gardener, love the cinema, with a weakness for sports. All of which offer a bounty in distraction, such that the last 3 weeks of quiescence since the Halloween treat have really not been rough at all. In fact, it has been quite the contrary, as back then I looked at the whole of the NH, and saw some "intangibles" (only possible through objectively considering ...or trying to, the whole system), that suggested the latter half of November would get interesting in the models. Here we have pre-TG thingy to follow, and then a pretty strong signal (at least in the GFS cluster) for a +PNA recovery. Just a waiting period, and an opportunity to enjoy other stuff. So cheer up folks, it's Thanks Giving week! Great football games for those that enjoy the NFL. We have an undefeated Green Bay Packers team going up against a newly born Detroit Lions team that has won enough biggies to prove they are for real. Thanks Giving day is traditionally the Lions and Cowboy's day, so that will add to the intangible element of them showing up to play! That Packers/Lions game is really enough to put the weather dreams away and get into it, it is going to be epic. LOL - says the guy posting a 300 word essay on a wx forum during the middle of a sunny, unseasonably warm Saturday. pot...kettle...black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 this ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... THE SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE IMPACTING CA ON SUN WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND ARRIVE INTO THE ERN REGION ON TUES. A REAL COMPLICATED FCST BEGINS TO EVOLVE AS SPLIT FLOW AND PROGRESSION OF VERY WET SRN STREAM FEATURE IS HANDLED IN VARIOUS WAYS BY THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE SRN STREAM FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ARRIVE INTO THE OH/TN VLYS AND A WALL OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AND ADVECT INTO THE NORTHEAST... WHERE A SOLID AND LIKELY UNDERESTIMATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT AND WEDGED. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO THE NRN FRINGE OF THE EXTENDED PRECIP SHIELD TO RESULT IN A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN... AS COLD AIR HAS DIFFICULTY BEING SCOURED OUT. HPC GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE ON QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES TO INTRODUCE A LOW PROB OF 4 INCHES OF HVY SNOW BUT NO ICING AT THIS TIME. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 this ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... THE SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE IMPACTING CA ON SUN WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND ARRIVE INTO THE ERN REGION ON TUES. A REAL COMPLICATED FCST BEGINS TO EVOLVE AS SPLIT FLOW AND PROGRESSION OF VERY WET SRN STREAM FEATURE IS HANDLED IN VARIOUS WAYS BY THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE SRN STREAM FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL ARRIVE INTO THE OH/TN VLYS AND A WALL OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AND ADVECT INTO THE NORTHEAST... WHERE A SOLID AND LIKELY UNDERESTIMATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT AND WEDGED. THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO THE NRN FRINGE OF THE EXTENDED PRECIP SHIELD TO RESULT IN A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN... AS COLD AIR HAS DIFFICULTY BEING SCOURED OUT. HPC GENERALLY WENT WITH A MODEL COMPROMISE ON QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES TO INTRODUCE A LOW PROB OF 4 INCHES OF HVY SNOW BUT NO ICING AT THIS TIME. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. When you read the "northern fringe" in the Northern New England discussion has a mixed combo, SNE should be prepared for wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 When you read the "northern fringe" in the Northern New England discussion has a mixed combo, SNE should be prepared for wet. Yeah, I don't think it is going to help down your way unless this low would exit the NJ coast, The southern stream would have to be a little more dominant or the low is weaker coming up, But it would help up here if it tracks more SE if the models are underdoing the cold air to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 This has been an unreal stretch of warmth this fall. Let's hope we do start to see changes come Dec 1. I'm enjoying this weather but it'll be nice to start tracking some real winter threats. This is the proper way to look at it... Yard work ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 This is the proper way to look at it... Yard work ftw Not much else to do honestly. Breezy out there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Ruh roh He is on a diet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Maybe some convection Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Maybe some convection Wednesday. maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Euro op says days and days of eating hot turkey sandwiches outside in 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 maybe Seems possible now...with the system now looking to track west of us that should place portions of the region into the warm sector with a fairly warm/moist low-level airmass characterized by sfc dewpoints into the mid to upper 50's and 925/850mb temps between +5C and +10C. Temps in the mid levels are quite cold too, around -15C or so and dropping as the trough approaches from the west. Should have some decent ML lapse rates along with some decent lift. Could get a ribbon of weak sfc-based instability that works into parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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