snowNH Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The talk of "freak storms" is turning me on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 And ensembles thankfully are much better in the longer range. They are jerry, From 276 on looks like some lower heights trys to develop over the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Models will be all over the place until the northern stream gets on shore. This setup is a real "Crap Chute" and in no way is it "Crap Shoot" no matter what anyone tells you. "Crap Shoot" doesn't even make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Models will be all over the place until the northern stream gets on shore. This setup is a real "Crap Chute" and in no way is it "Crap Shoot" no matter what anyone tells you. "Crap Shoot" doesn't even make sense. Crap Shoot is a gambling term...as in shooting craps...luck of the dice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Crap Shoot is a gambling term...as in shooting craps...luck of the dice. A Crap Chute can depend on luck too, If you happen to be walking by the chute when somone is taking a crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Well the EURO lost the backside snow for T-Day. AMOUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Models will be all over the place until the northern stream gets on shore. This setup is a real "Crap Chute" and in no way is it "Crap Shoot" no matter what anyone tells you. "Crap Shoot" doesn't even make sense. Mmmmmm crapes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Hey Guys.... SnowNH's friend here... Tragic news regarding him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Sounds like HM has been toying around with the idea of a SSW. I mentioned it a couple of times, although perhaps for reasons not like his, that we see one with a downwelling -QBO wave, but that was a WAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Well, that EC run is a deflating thing to come down to. Seems the GFS has kept a prayer of flakes alive for some folks, though I'm not sure how many folks will hold onto that hope. After that storm passes through, though, what a horror show. Hopeuflly they're all wrong. ) For the time being, I can take solace as I cling to the rain/snow wording in my forecast for Wed night. 39.9/35 Edit: 06 GFS tries to wrest even the last hopes of flakes away. At least T-day will still be reasonably seasonable, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 HPC` says east..which would mean backend snows for interior areas EXPECT THAT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WILL ULTIMATELY TREND BACK EASTWARD...WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY KEY IN KEEPING THE WAVE FROM MAKING TOO MUCH POLEWARD PROGRESS. THE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 This week is lost. I'd just be interested in whether the day 10 map shows any hope of a pattern shift starting. Well, that EC run is a deflating thing to come down to. Seems the GFS has kept a prayer of flakes alive for some folks, though I'm not sure how many folks will hold onto that hope. After that storm passes through, though, what a horror show. Hopeuflly they're all wrong. ) For the time being, I can take solace as I cling to the rain/snow wording in my forecast for Wed night. 39.9/35 Edit: 06 GFS tries to wrest even the last hopes of flakes away. At least T-day will still be reasonably seasonable, ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 JB FTW BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi all one need do is look at the blend of the cold pdo/warm amo analogs and you will see that a major trough nov25-dec5 is likely in the east8 hours ago »BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi All you weather folk can see eastern trough on models right for end of the month. The past analogs told of this months ago, right?8 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 HPC` says east..which would mean backend snows for interior areas EXPECT THAT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WILL ULTIMATELY TREND BACK EASTWARD...WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY KEY IN KEEPING THE WAVE FROM MAKING TOO MUCH POLEWARD PROGRESS. THE I wouldn't count on much backside action at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I have been pretty dubious of back end snows though because east also means kinda squished and not wrapped up to that extent. It would take a lot, but keep hope alive. HPC` says east..which would mean backend snows for interior areas EXPECT THAT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WILL ULTIMATELY TREND BACK EASTWARD...WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY KEY IN KEEPING THE WAVE FROM MAKING TOO MUCH POLEWARD PROGRESS. THE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 JB FTW BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi all one need do is look at the blend of the cold pdo/warm amo analogs and you will see that a major trough nov25-dec5 is likely in the east8 hours ago »BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi All you weather folk can see eastern trough on models right for end of the month. The past analogs told of this months ago, right?8 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I wouldn't count on much backside action at all. I am riding the CMC from yesterday as final outcome. With that high in Canada no reason not to think this has a center jump to south of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Euro extrapolated would have a pretty big trough cold shot as we move into days 11-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Euro extrapolated would have a pretty big trough cold shot as we move into days 11-14 Pattern stinks. So what if we have a transient shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 He really needs subscribers, but I hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 He really needs subscribers, but I hope he is right. They'll be a trough that gives is a 2 day cold shot and he'll still claim he was right. That's how he rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Good news. You're coming off the cliff. Euro extrapolated would have a pretty big trough cold shot as we move into days 11-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Good news. You're coming off the cliff. Or he has completely lost it and is grasping for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Pattern stinks. So what if we have a transient shot. Whiny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Well I thought the GFS was showing some hope the AK vortex would relocate west in a few op runs and some ensemble means. 0Z was wishy washy about it though...didn't look at 6Z. But we are talking past day 10. I have no idea how JB can see it as early as 11/25 though. Or he has completely lost it and is grasping for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Whiny Take the torch like a man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I don't need to hear that Hear the sounds of +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Hear the sounds of +10. After today that is a thing of the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 HPC` says east..which would mean backend snows for interior areas EXPECT THAT THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WILL ULTIMATELY TREND BACK EASTWARD...WITH THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY KEY IN KEEPING THE WAVE FROM MAKING TOO MUCH POLEWARD PROGRESS. THE BOX seems less definitive than you on that bolded statement: EVEN IF THIS TRACK WERE TO VERIFY...STILL THINKING IT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MOST OF ANY SNOW CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 After today that is a thing of the past Keep telling yourself that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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