CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 i think if it fills...actually fills...then having it deepen again in the face of a rising PNA, falling NAO/AO won't be so easy. The squirrles are as rotund as I've seen them and mother nature typically is a better indicator than any index as much as we scientists would like to dispute. LOL, I thought of you yesterday because I saw 2 portly looking squirrels running around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I think Will fears 2001-02 result to this winter........probably not alone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I think Will fears 2001-02 result to this winter........probably not alone... No... He fears 1979... Just kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 No... He fears 1979... Just kidding. Your going to get slapped.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Cmon guys 2001-2002 wasn't that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 I think Will fears 2001-02 result to this winter........probably not alone... I don't think it will stick around for 3 months like that winter. At some point I expect the Aleutian ridge to flex its muscles poleward. But I will not lie and say I do not fear that AK vortex. I said it in the fall...that I would be a little concerned if we see it continually camping out up there as winter begins. Over the past several years, we have always preached that the AK vortex is the one feature that strikes fear into us. Almost all the warm winters had it there. Many times when December featured that type of pattern, it went on to be a terrible winter....Dec 2001, 1999, 1994, 1991....1993 had it for the first 3 weeks but then it was flushed SW and we built a big -EPO and the winter was off to the record books after that. So it can switch, but I'd rather not try to do it that way and have it flushed out of there by Dec 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Cmon guys 2001-2002 wasn't that bad It was horrible. It's been in the back of my mind....I hope we see a change in 2-3 weeks. We are in line for something like that sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 It was horrible. It's been in the back of my mind....I hope we see a change in 2-3 weeks. We are in line for something like that sooner or later. Lol I know.. especially after that banner year that SNH had the year before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Lol I know.. especially after that banner year that SNH had the year before I think January will be pretty good this year and I'm semi optimistic we'll actually have some winter in Feb and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Cmon guys 2001-2002 wasn't that bad Was it ok in NNE by Vim Tooty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I think January will be pretty good this year and I'm semi optimistic we'll actually have some winter in Feb and March. I'm kinda happy that I probably wont miss anything big during my trip to Cali now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 LOL, I thought of you yesterday because I saw 2 portly looking squirrels running around. I think of Jerry every time I see a squirrel in the fall. And then I laugh because I realize I'm thinking of a poster on a message board as a result of seeing a squirrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Weeklies come out in an hour or so..but I wouldn't expect a big change in their thinking. If they show week 3 or 4 as being less relentless with the ridging in the east then it's a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Dec 1970 didn''t have a death vortex over AK...it actually had a decent Aleutian Ridge....it was a -PNA, but that doesn't have to mean warmth for us if there is cold air in Canada stressing that -PNA and + EPO are not always death Knells. Can you run Nov 5 H look for 1970? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 stressing that -PNA and + EPO are not always death Knells. Can you run Nov 5 H look for 1970? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I don't think it will stick around for 3 months like that winter. At some point I expect the Aleutian ridge to flex its muscles poleward. But I will not lie and say I do not fear that AK vortex. I said it in the fall...that I would be a little concerned if we see it continually camping out up there as winter begins. Over the past several years, we have always preached that the AK vortex is the one feature that strikes fear into us. Almost all the warm winters had it there. Many times when December featured that type of pattern, it went on to be a terrible winter....Dec 2001, 1999, 1994, 1991....1993 had it for the first 3 weeks but then it was flushed SW and we built a big -EPO and the winter was off to the record books after that. So it can switch, but I'd rather not try to do it that way and have it flushed out of there by Dec 10th. 1991 was my first winter back from California. Suffice it to say it blew. My son (then 10) was so looking forward to a well advertised storm that stayed too far east in February that he broke the cup holder in my car from frustration. Normally I'd be pissed but I just comforted him knowing exactly how he felt...lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Vey is mir.....oy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 1991 was my first winter back from California. Suffice it to say it blew. My son (then 10) was so looking forward to a well advertised storm that stayed too far east in February that he broke the cup holder in my car from frustration. Normally I'd be pissed but I just comforted him knowing exactly how he felt...lol.... Hey at least I had a snow day on the first day of Spring that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Vey is mir.....oy! lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Thanks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Was it ok in NNE by Vim Tooty? Nope. CAR came in nearly 2' below their avg, not their worst but bottom quartile. Farther south, 01-02 was the only winter mild enough to allow my Reliance peach to enter the growing season with zero dieback (had 90% dieback in earlier years followed by huge flush of new growth.) It bore about 100 very sweet fruit, the only blossoms/fruit it ever produced, as winter 02-03 killed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Hey Will...can you run the anomalies hemispherically for November 1993 and November 2003? Tyia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Hey Will...can you run the anomalies hemispherically for November 1993 and November 2003? Tyia. This three thread crap has got me confused. 2003 hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Hey Will...can you run the anomalies hemispherically for November 1993 and November 2003? Tyia. 1993 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I don't think it will stick around for 3 months like that winter. At some point I expect the Aleutian ridge to flex its muscles poleward. But I will not lie and say I do not fear that AK vortex. I said it in the fall...that I would be a little concerned if we see it continually camping out up there as winter begins. Over the past several years, we have always preached that the AK vortex is the one feature that strikes fear into us. Almost all the warm winters had it there. Many times when December featured that type of pattern, it went on to be a terrible winter....Dec 2001, 1999, 1994, 1991....1993 had it for the first 3 weeks but then it was flushed SW and we built a big -EPO and the winter was off to the record books after that. So it can switch, but I'd rather not try to do it that way and have it flushed out of there by Dec 10th. When you look at the SST anomalies of 1999 and 2001 vs. 2010 and this year in the GOA region its definitely noticeable that both this year and 2010 there is a near neutral pool of water hugging the Yukon and BC coast and there was clearly not those 2 years, not sure if thats what makes the difference or not, but there also no question the cold pool is ever so slightly more east this year than 2010 and that could mean the pattern change will take longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Was it ok in NNE by Vim Tooty? here it was slightly below avg snowfall coming in bits and pieces..... generally nondescript winter with no snowfalls > 8 inches and peak depth around 16 inches in the last week of march meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 1993 2003 Thanks Will. I guess the +PDO means those years will in no way look like this year. Let's hope that vortex moves. I remain optimistic based solely on the tubs foraging through town for food as if they need it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well, its about that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Sky's clearing out here in GC. Bring on next week. 38.4/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well, its about that time Finally...now what happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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