Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 A good friend reminded me of something last week, last year there were so many toaster tubby baths, fact is winter never showed up here until after xmas, looking at these pics I am still left speechless, something I may never see again. Not saying this winter will end up like last, certainly not down here, but man winter showed up late down here at sea level and was damn impressive. (simply nowhere to put the snow last winter) Believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Yes 3 runs and counting now with this 18z operational GFS run a nice representation of the extremely tight ensemble clustered arrival of +PNA, showing the PNAP component of the PNA domain reversing the NW U.S/SE U.S. goepotential anomaly distribution. Fun talk for ridging returning to the west while repeating S/Ws pass through an new eastern N/A full latitude long wave. Will it persist...who the hell knows, but this is a signal that isn't going away and I think those that expect cold to hold off until December are going to be proven wrong here. Not based solely on the 18z run, no, but be building mass of evidential modeling to the contrary of thinking a -EPO is absolutely paramount here. Can't hit this point enough; I want folks that care about getting this stuff to acknowledge that. -EPO is hugely helpful, granted... But a pervasive snow pack over the Canadian shield and on-going 10-D negative anomalies covering all by southeastern regions will suffice as the PNA climbs and the ambient mid level trajectories begin to back. Aside from the fact, it is entirely possible that a +PNA could precede a -EPO ...particular if the PNA ridge becomes sufficiently amplified. Regarding the storm mid week. Now D5, tonight's Euro run is a 4.5 D lead threshold for naughty spanking the other guidance types. Point of interest for me is if any thermal fields of the closing mid level centers show cooling on this run versus priors. That Euro solution, however warm regardless in the early innings of that event, then demonstrates some pretty phenomenal dynamical cooling from internal height falls. That sfc solution, also, is approaching bombogen criteria deepening rates. These late autumn deal like this....eh, I'd be leery about signing off on a warm rain storm. Anytime you see an 850mb 0C circumvallate being toted along with a closing vortex aloft becomes real real dicey. The issue I have with the GFS is that its more southern stream component of that phase is currently dipping S as an outside slider off the west coast of N/A, where the initialization is entirely satellite soundings and/or assimilation derived. That's very good, but it will be more interesting for me what the GFS does once that relays over land in a day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Should be an interesting 00z EC run tonight. It would be cool to have the rain change to snow during thanksgiving even if it didn't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Should be an interesting 00z EC run tonight. It would be cool to have the rain change to snow during thankshiving even if it didn't amount to much. I hope ya'll get it, last Tday I was in FT Washington Pa and it snowed for a few hours on Thanksgiving, really nice treat for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 hammer time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The GGEM at 12z was a huge storm... wow, over 24 hours of wintery precip in CNE and NNE. SNE gets a nice tail end snow. Gives some sort of confidence in the ECMWF solution of a big cut-off low meandering around just south of New England and then passing SE of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I will take an order of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 hammer time oh yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The GGEM at 12z was a huge storm... wow, over 24 hours of wintery precip in CNE and NNE. SNE gets a nice tail end snow. Gives some sort of confidence in the ECMWF solution of a big cut-off low meandering around just south of New England and then passing SE of BOS. Gives the euro some credance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Getting ready to go outside for a TDAY week fiirepit. Jamiesons by my side. March up North has been perfect skiing the last 4 years, lots of snow and because SNE NY are brown no peeps. I like my snow Christmas to Feb just fine but could dig a great March. Nothing better than fire pit nights Steve! We had lots of fun last winter at night kids going down the man made sled hill i made and libations for the adults! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I hope ya'll get it, last Tday I was in FT Washington Pa and it snowed for a few hours on Thanksgiving, really nice treat for sure! You are kinda creepy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Nothing better than fire pit nights Steve! We had lots of fun last winter at night kids going down the man made sled hill i made and libations for the adults! You got hammered.... me, not so much, but it was fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 You are kinda creepy I'm creepy because I want people to get some snow on tday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I'm creepy because I want people to get some snow on tday? creeper.... Pour another drink its all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 creeper.... Pour another drink its all good None for me buddy, I have to work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 None for me buddy, I have to work tomorrow. I'll have one for ya, On my 3rd captains.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I'll have one for ya, On my 3rd captains.... Nice! Just finished dinner, putting the kids to bed, might have a glass of red long day in the leaves tomorrow up in North Stamford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Nice! Just finished dinner, putting the kids to bed, might have a glass of red long day in the leaves tomorrow up in North Stamford Stay thirsty my friend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Should be an interesting 00z EC run tonight. It would be cool to have the rain change to snow during thanksgiving even if it didn't amount to much. The northern S/W in question doesn't come on shore until 12z monday. Don't expect a definitive answer until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like the 00z GFS has trended toward the ECMWF and CMC solutions. I love all the torch talk going on; meanwhile, the northern Plains' warm spots currently are in the low teens. Many areas are in the single numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like the 00z GFS has trended toward the ECMWF and CMC solutions. I love all the torch talk going on; meanwhile, the northern Plains' warm spots currently are in the low teens. Many areas are in the single numbers. Was just going to post that. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like some backside snow for some here in the northeast as heights crash SE with some hangback moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like the 00z GFS has trended toward the ECMWF and CMC solutions. I love all the torch talk going on; meanwhile, the northern Plains' warm spots currently are in the low teens. Many areas are in the single numbers. Sadly the upper air temperatures aren't supportive of snow on the GFS and the Nam . I get a p!ss tank full of rain on both runs....about 1-2 inches. Imagine if it was colder lol. Horrible Pacific pattern and +NAO/+AO across the Atlantic isnt ideal at all for cold cross the East or sustained cold esp. with that huge Vortex across AK and insane +EPO/-PNA. On the 0z GFS you can see a Weak Bermuda High in the Atlantic and weak HP anomaly across Quebec and no 50/50 Low, the pattern isnt ideal for cold thus the end result is a rainstorm for most everyone across the East. Hopefully it can get cooler for the following few runs. BTW whats your thought on the earlier GFS runs depicting a weakening AK Vortex and -EPO/+PNA pattern starting to revolve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like some backside snow for some here in the northeast as heights crash SE with some hangback moisture I feel like backlash never pans out..hopefully though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 I feel like backlash never pans out..hopefully though. Most of the time it does not work out here, But it is usually when the low has already scooted by, But thats not the case verbatium here on this run, But the gfs looks more like the euro run, The gfs ensembles have had the low tracking further south then the op over the last few runs so we shall see over the next day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 OP run of the GFS is ugly wire to wire...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 OP run of the GFS is ugly wire to wire...... For most but not all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Was just going to post that. Hmmm. Doesn't it get well into the 50s for most of the storm before the huge temp crash and snow Wednesday night into Thanksgiving morning? Models seem to be in pretty good agreement of this. Hopefully it pans out; it would be cool to have back end snow after it being in the 50s with rain for most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 OP run of the GFS is ugly wire to wire...... Hmm...every single time we get a cold shot in, it comes in and heads out in 24-48 hours as a heat ridge flexes its muscles in the center of the nation, heading east. Stay the course though. Pattern change starts 12/10-15, complete by 12/20-25. Maybe a sneak 4-8" somewhere between now and then. Even December 2001 had a solid 5-9" storm on 12/8. Another freak 10" storm and many places around ORH will be between 30-40" on the season. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Hmm...every single time we get a cold shot in, it comes in and heads out in 24-48 hours as a heat ridge flexes its muscles in the center of the nation, heading east. Stay the course though. Pattern change starts 12/10-15, complete by 12/20-25. Maybe a sneak 4-8" somewhere between now and then. Even December 2001 had a solid 5-9" storm on 12/8. Another freak 10" storm and many places around ORH will be between 30-40" on the season. Not too shabby. And ensembles thankfully are much better in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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