Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[nzucker]

Is that ridging showing up north of the Caspian? Looks like the new guy has an itchy trigger finger.....

That's a game changer right there...you've got the Cahir's Connection as well as the bombing trough over the OH Valley which should lead to height rises over Greenland and help make the NAO negative. The Pacific is still mediocre but the GoA low is clearly retrograding towards the Aleutians, leading to a more favorable pattern with a +PNA.

[Logan11]

Now I get it. LOL This is just the inverse of the torch talk. Stirring the pot to get us all riled up.

Scientific explanation of why please

[ski MRG]

Scientific explanation of why please

Well, Blizz needs to spin up a wide array of defense mechanisms because he is a snow weenie living in relatively snowless state. These defense mechanisms help him to function in this hostile environment. Without these periodic flare ups the anxiety would eventually kill him It's actually quite fascinating.

[WeatherX]

That's a game changer right there...you've got the Cahir's Connection as well as the bombing trough over the OH Valley which should lead to height rises over Greenland and help make the NAO negative. The Pacific is still mediocre but the GoA low is clearly retrograding towards the Aleutians, leading to a more favorable pattern with a +PNA.

Hi Nate

Well that's one of the things I would be looking for on the NH charts...the rest of the stuff is mostly noise at this point. Just give me one good signal......tried and true. I'm sure your students are driving you nuts? Haha.....

[ORH_wxman]

That's a game changer right there...you've got the Cahir's Connection as well as the bombing trough over the OH Valley which should lead to height rises over Greenland and help make the NAO negative. The Pacific is still mediocre but the GoA low is clearly retrograding towards the Aleutians, leading to a more favorable pattern with a +PNA.

The OP Euro would be crazy and probably help shuffle things up, but it has little ensemble support right now.

A little spike in the PNA even with a +EPO could help us cool down a bit to seasonal levels for a bit, which would probably be a way we can sneak a snow event in there, but the larger scale issues still remain on the ensembles. Hopefully something crazy happens to shake it up earlier.

[nzucker]

Hi Nate

Well that's one of the things I would be looking for on the NH charts...the rest of the stuff is mostly noise at this point. Just give me one good signal......tried and true. I'm sure your students are driving you nuts? Haha.....

As Will said, it's pretty unsupported by other modeling, so we'll have to wait to see if the GFS/ECM ENS get onboard with such an extreme solution.

I had a kid hit me on Friday for trying to kick him out of class, not a pleasant situation. Home for the weekend to relax and get away from it all. Tense job I have at times working with some very difficult kids.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well, Blizz needs to spin up a wide array of defense mechanisms because he is a snow weenie living in relatively snowless state. These defense mechanisms help him to function in this hostile environment. Without these periodic flare ups the anxiety would eventually kill him It's actually quite fascinating.

Can you let me know the score of the Cowboys/Bills game last Sunday?I can't seem to find what the final score was anywhere

[dryslot]

Can you let me know the score of the Cowboys/Bills game last Sunday?I can't seem to find what the final score was anywhere

[WeatherX]

As Will said, it's pretty unsupported by other modeling, so we'll have to wait to see if the GFS/ECM ENS get onboard with such an extreme solution.

I had a kid hit me on Friday for trying to kick him out of class, not a pleasant situation. Home for the weekend to relax and get away from it all. Tense job I have at times working with some very difficult kids.

Well if you just use timing for example, all other things aside; that AK vortex can't sit there forever. So let's just see what happens with that, I'm still gung ho on this winter for most of us.

You've got a tough job Nate. Surely you have no background on these kids and what the developmental years were like.....My hat is off to you.

[TheCloser24]

I guess the NWS wants to alert the public early on possible inclement weather on the biggest travel day of the year:

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WINDS...AND EVEN COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH...SO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST.

[powderfreak]

I guess the NWS wants to alert the public early on possible inclement weather on the biggest travel day of the year:

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WINDS...AND EVEN COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH...SO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST.

BTV also starting to chirp a bit with the large amount of travel that takes place on Wednesday afternoon.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW...BUT THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW. POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT IT JUST RAIN/SNOW AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE...ITS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY SNOW AMOUNTS. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ADVISED OF LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

[nzucker]

Well if you just use timing for example, all other things aside; that AK vortex can't sit there forever. So let's just see what happens with that, I'm still gung ho on this winter for most of us.

You've got a tough job Nate. Surely you have no background on these kids and what the developmental years were like.....My hat is off to you.

Based on the -AO summer-->+AO fall-->-AO winter connection (though Skierinvermont does offer a stratospheric argument against using this rationale this year), I think we're in decent shape. I also think that Atlantic SSTs and the rapid increase to near-record NH snow cover support blocking, so all hope is not lost even if the poor Pacific pattern does become somewhat persistent early in the winter. Also, the long-range ensembles show the GoA low starting to retrograde towards the Aleutians, which would start up more of a +PNA/-EPO. It's a shame, however, that this cold dump into Canada didn't do any good; it all gets torched away by the huge ULL over the Bering Strait/AK.

In terms of the job, you are correct in asserting that we don't have a lot of background. The school purposefully denies teachers access to in-depth records about medical/developmental problems as we're a non-diagnosis/non-punishment type of program so they don't want us making too many judgments about student lives. For safety reasons, I do have access to what medications students are currently taking, so that and casual observation in class give me some idea of which issues are troubling which students, but it's very vague. This is one of the main tensions among the faculty: whether students are being undermedicated because of the program's anti-pharmaceutical philosophy, whether teachers are being hurt by not knowing about previous diagnoses and psychiatric evaluations, and whether the lack of any negative repercussions for behavior is encouraging students to cut class, behave violently to their classmates and teachers, etc. Even when I was just casually talking to the English teacher in a private conversation the other day, he balked at my use of the word "learning disabled" to describe a student with whom I've been working really successfully. I generally find myself agreeing with our philosophy but it tends towards the extreme, and I do think the fact that we have a tougher group this year compared to other years, with more violence, may make the administration tighten up a bit and move away from our very idealistic principles.

[weathafella]

Meaningful change begins 12/10. It is complete 12/20-25....we go full in winter for 2-3 months thereafter. The early snow made people think winter is nigh.

[WeatherX]

Based on the -AO summer-->+AO fall-->-AO winter connection (though Skierinvermont does offer a stratospheric argument against using this rationale this year), I think we're in decent shape. I also think that Atlantic SSTs and the rapid increase to near-record NH snow cover support blocking, so all hope is not lost even if the poor Pacific pattern does become somewhat persistent early in the winter. Also, the long-range ensembles show the GoA low starting to retrograde towards the Aleutians, which would start up more of a +PNA/-EPO. It's a shame, however, that this cold dump into Canada didn't do any good; it all gets torched away by the huge ULL over the Bering Strait/AK.

In terms of the job, you are correct in asserting that we don't have a lot of background. The school purposefully denies teachers access to in-depth records about medical/developmental problems as we're a non-diagnosis/non-punishment type of program so they don't want us making too many judgments about student lives. For safety reasons, I do have access to what medications students are currently taking, so that and casual observation in class give me some idea of which issues are troubling which students, but it's very vague. This is one of the main tensions among the faculty: whether students are being undermedicated because of the program's anti-pharmaceutical philosophy, whether teachers are being hurt by not knowing about previous diagnoses and psychiatric evaluations, and whether the lack of any negative repercussions for behavior is encouraging students to cut class, behave violently to their classmates and teachers, etc. Even when I was just casually talking to the English teacher in a private conversation the other day, he balked at my use of the word "learning disabled" to describe a student with whom I've been working really successfully. I generally find myself agreeing with our philosophy but it tends towards the extreme, and I do think the fact that we have a tougher group this year compared to other years, with more violence, may make the administration tighten up a bit and move away from our very idealistic principles.

Yeah the work stuff is OT. We'll talk. My wife is an authority on that.

Some of the things you want to see are showing up now....albeit faded by long range resolution.....It looks like the Nina might be collapsing quicker than expected....your thoughts on that?

[Ginx snewx]

I guess the NWS wants to alert the public early on possible inclement weather on the biggest travel day of the year:

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WINDS...AND EVEN COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH...SO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST.

BTV also starting to chirp a bit with the large amount of travel that takes place on Wednesday afternoon.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW...BUT THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN BACK TO SNOW. POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT IT JUST RAIN/SNOW AT THIS TIME. BASED ON LOW CONFIDENCE IN PTYPE...ITS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY SNOW AMOUNTS. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD KEEP ADVISED OF LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

Our new moon super high tide big coastal streak continues. Watching this closely this weekend. As X and Tubes say

[Baroclinic Zone]

Meaningful change begins 12/10. It is complete 12/20-25....we go full in winter for 2-3 months thereafter. The early snow made people think winter is nigh.

March is gonna rock Jerry! The Ides of 1993.

[Ginx snewx]

Hey Garth, great to see you today. Change is in the wind, we get over this hump the next ten days then we have fun. I am getting very interested in the sensible WX aspects of the Wed storms, very dynamic on Euro and Canadian.

[Ginx snewx]

LOL picture Jerry as Mr Snow Miser, LL Joe as Mr Heat Miser

Mr Snow Miser FTW? The little bald guys look like CTBLIZZ

[Mr Torchey]

I was looking at some websites today, okemo fired up the guns on Thursday, it would really go a long way if ski country could cash in mid week for them man made 6 inches of natural even if its paste. As long as we see winter weather begin just before the holidays it should be a classic winter, I am sick of March being just cold enough not to be able to do anything yet without snow, I miss the classic Feb and early to mid march MONSTERs.

The way I am looking at this torch, and especially the post tday one, is enjoy it, savour the flavor, in a weak to moderate nina that maybe weakening, we are almost assured of a couple classic upper plains east arctic invasions old school style.

For now, its frisbee and picnics, I have said this many times this fall to JD (weatherx) when winter gets here, it will be a shock to our systems after an historically warm autumn.

[CT Rain]

That's a game changer right there...you've got the Cahir's Connection as well as the bombing trough over the OH Valley which should lead to height rises over Greenland and help make the NAO negative. The Pacific is still mediocre but the GoA low is clearly retrograding towards the Aleutians, leading to a more favorable pattern with a +PNA.

But there's not a whole lot of cold left in NOAM with the ripping +EPO. It's not a game changer but could arguably get you back to seasonable and increase snow chances.

[Ginx snewx]

I was looking at some websites today, okemo fired up the guns on Thursday, it would really go a long way if ski country could cash in mid week for them man made 6 inches of natural even if its paste. As long as we see winter weather begin just before the holidays it should be a classic winter, I am sick of March being just cold enough not to be able to do anything yet without snow, I miss the classic Feb and early to mid march MONSTERs.

The way I am looking at this torch, and especially the post tday one, is enjoy it, savour the flavor, in a weak to moderate nina that maybe weakening, we are almost assured of a couple classic upper plains east arctic invasions old school style.

For now, its frisbee and picnics, I have said this many times this fall to JD (weatherx) when winter gets here, it will be a shock to our systems after an historically warm autumn.

Getting ready to go outside for a TDAY week fiirepit. Jamiesons by my side. March up North has been perfect skiing the last 4 years, lots of snow and because SNE NY are brown no peeps. I like my snow Christmas to Feb just fine but could dig a great March.

[CT Rain]

lol at the op Euro

[Mr Torchey]

Getting ready to go outside for a TDAY week fiirepit. Jamiesons by my side. March up North has been perfect skiing the last 4 years, lots of snow and because SNE NY are brown no peeps. I like my snow Christmas to Feb just fine but could dig a great March.

Steve, enjoy the pit, and Happy Festivus.

[WeatherX]

I'm gonna pin my hopes on this.....18Z GFS Ensembles......Pattern change is coming

[Ginx snewx]

But there's not a whole lot of cold left in NOAM with the ripping +EPO. It's not a game changer but could arguably get you back to seasonable and increase snow chances.

Take that in a heartbeat. Canada gets cold all by itself quickly.

[Ginx snewx]

lol at the op Euro

Said it before that's one screwy Louie run.

[WeatherX]

But there's not a whole lot of cold left in NOAM with the ripping +EPO. It's not a game changer but could arguably get you back to seasonable and increase snow chances.

Nice job Ryan with the scumbag at CLP......

[dryslot]

It was an odd set up on the euro, Not that it could not happen but thers a lot of moving parts going on

[CT Rain]

Take that in a heartbeat. Canada gets cold all by itself quickly.

Yeah it's not great but it's one way to turn a crappy pattern into something that can deliver.

The deck is stacked against us through 12/10 or 12/15. Can always get lucky though.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah it's not great but it's one way to turn a crappy pattern into something that can deliver.

The deck is stacked against us through 12/10 or 12/15. Can always get lucky though.

If you believe the Euro verbatim. I do not. GFS ENS keep advertising first week of Dec. MJO is a non factor. Would be beyond great if that Euro run happens, you can just see how a Neg NAO would form. Things are changing, models are starting to pick up on it. I am just glad it is 11 days until Dec. I will state it again, now is the time we want AK to be frigid.