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Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond


ORH_wxman

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For the most part I just enjoy reading the boards and they are always worth a laugh or two! I don’t know enough about the weather to get into the technical discos but there are a lot of great meteorologist and non mets on here that do that and I learn something new each day. Seems as though it is going to be rough sledding as we head into December, ok maybe sledding was not the best reference LOL. I for one am just going to take it for what it is and see where we stand come mid December. I know we are located throughout New England from the coast to deep interior. For me on the coast I don’t expect much in terms of snow early on in December, as usually set ups are marginal at best and the ocean is still rather toasty and becomes an issue fast. The past few Decembers have been very kind to the majority, but I would rather go through this period now not in the middle of winter! If we get to mid December and things are still ugly and the extended range from then out looks ugly then yes I might get a little nervous about where we are heading for the rest of winter, but until that point it is what it is. I have a new truck with a brand new plow and I want to use that sooner rather than latter that does not look to be the case but I am confident I will get my chances this winter! I am going to try and get to the next GTG to try and meet some of you folks as it seems like a really good group, full of knowledge when it comes to weather!

awesome look forward to meeting you, better bring some of those awesome photos you take!!! New truck and plow, ut oh huge curse LOL

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This is the part I just can't comprehend...Dec 1 is winter... Dec is a winter month..We should be seeing signs of a winter pattern setting in IF WE WANT ANY SUSTAINED WINTRY PERIODS in middle and latter Dec. We aren't seeing a hint of global change anywhere on any model..The MJO blows..the EPO blows worse. There is nothing...NOTHING that says we should not be worrying.

Hell we had Will post last night that he was so upset he wanted to throw his laptop out the window..That should be eye opening for you

I'm with him 100%. This pattern stinks like Ray's undies after deadlifts.

I'm hoping the weeklies were right in that something happens near mid month..week 3ish or so. That's what we are all in agreement I think.

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I'm with him 100%. This pattern stinks like Ray's undies after deadlifts.

I'm hoping the weeklies were right in that something happens near mid month..week 3ish or so. That's what we are all in agreement I think.

Another apparent suicide attempt on Tobin Bridge

AP 11/19/11 - 3:31 pm

Boston fire crews responded to the Tobin Bridge around 3:30 p.m. on reports somebody was threatening to jump from the upper level of the bridge; The Globe reports Chelsea police were able to talk the man down before he actually jumped.

State, Boston and Massport police and fire boats responded to the scene; the Boston Fire Department dive team was called in as well, just in case.

Rte. 1 southbound was shut down.

The last jump from the bridge was early on Nov 18. That person didn't make it.

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Another apparent suicide attempt on Tobin Bridge

AP 11/19/11 - 3:31 pm

Boston fire crews responded to the Tobin Bridge around 3:30 p.m. on reports somebody was threatening to jump from the upper level of the bridge; The Globe reports Chelsea police were able to talk the man down before he actually jumped.

State, Boston and Massport police and fire boats responded to the scene; the Boston Fire Department dive team was called in as well, just in case.

Rte. 1 southbound was shut down.

The last jump from the bridge was early on Nov 18. That person didn't make it.

That sure does look like Scooter

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That sure does look like Scooter

LOL, I don't think you would ever see me do that.

I'm not so sure that myself, Will, Phil, Ryan etc are being Debbie Downers...we're just talking about how it is right now. If we say a pattern sucks, it doesn't mean we are running and canceling winter.

On that note, the euro ensembles are ugly...lol.

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Another apparent suicide attempt on Tobin Bridge

AP 11/19/11 - 3:31 pm

Boston fire crews responded to the Tobin Bridge around 3:30 p.m. on reports somebody was threatening to jump from the upper level of the bridge; The Globe reports Chelsea police were able to talk the man down before he actually jumped.

State, Boston and Massport police and fire boats responded to the scene; the Boston Fire Department dive team was called in as well, just in case.

Rte. 1 southbound was shut down.

The last jump from the bridge was early on Nov 18. That person didn't make it.

It's disturbing how many people have tried and gone through jumping.

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LOL, I don't think you would ever see me do that.

I'm not so sure that myself, Will, Phil, Ryan etc are being Debbie Downers...we're just talking about how it is right now. If we say a pattern sucks, it doesn't mean we are running and canceling winter.

On that note, the euro ensembles are ugly...lol.

Another step in the wrong direction apparently? This is getting really, really bad

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Another step in the wrong direction apparently? This is getting really, really bad

Well some runs take a step back, others a step forward. I think it goes to show you how long it will take. We weren't kidding 2+ weeks ago when we said it. I hope the weeklies have a clue. We'll know in about 2-3 weeks.

The atmosphere is still in shuffling mode, so they'll be a lot of noise in the models. Take a deep breath, play frisbee, and lets chat this up in a couple of weeks or so. We've had plenty of lousy first half of December.

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Promised land this winter....pre birthday song for Jerry. Time to get the sleds ready....

Yep LOL, this time last year I was taking toaster baths, now I kid about it but reality is this..................we live in sne, not the arctic circle, winter will probably show up sometime around xmas when it usually does expect for those up in the mtns. It will snow this winter, it will get cold, when and how who knows, but it will. Will it be as good as last winter, I doubt it, that was something special...........cherish each flake like its your last, and perhaps we will even have a wintery Feb and March this year.

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Yep LOL, this time last year I was taking toaster baths, now I kid about it but reality is this..................we live in sne, not the arctic circle, winter will probably show up sometime around xmas when it usually does expect for those up in the mtns. It will snow this winter, it will get cold, when and how who knows, but it will. Will it be as good as last winter, I doubt it, that was something special...........cherish each flake like its your last, and perhaps we will even have a wintery Feb and March this year.

Old man winter arrives whenever the heck he wants, kicks down your door and takes a dump on your couch if he so chooses, doesn't give a flying fook if you are home or not and never has the courtesy to leave you a thank you note.

This is how he rolls. He's been on his best behavior the past few years......It's going to be a fun ride again this year, just not sure how much poop we'll have to clean up off the floor yet.

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Old man winter arrives whenever the heck he wants, kicks down your door and takes a dump on your couch if he so chooses, doesn't give a flying fook if you are home or not and never has the courtesy to leave you a thank you note.

This is how he rolls. He's been on his best behavior the past few years......It's going to be a fun ride again this year, just not sure how much poop we'll have to clean up off the floor yet.

LOL picture Jerry as Mr Snow Miser, LL Joe as Mr Heat Miser

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Not that anyone should care necessarily but the 18z DGEX continues to pound the interior with big snow (> 6").

The Euro and its Ens actually gave some folks decent snow. But all you will hear is, it will melt in 4 days, like who the fok cares if it melts? I would love to see a cranking west side storm. Interesting weekend of runs.

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The end of Red Sox nation?

OT, but the disbanding of "red sox nation" is written on the wall, and in the very least the mystique of it was completely vaporized by that gaggle of douche bags of this last 2011 roster. f' 'em all for what they did to the paying fan-base, that pays their salaries ultimately.

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Another step in the wrong direction apparently? This is getting really, really bad

I do not think we should expect to see the Euro ensembles change a whole lot until maybe around Thanksgiving weekend when they can see beyond Dec 10th. Right now they go out to Dec 4 which has been expected to support a putrid pattern for a while now. MJO will be going through an ugly phase at that time so there is really nothing to force the issue...perhaps by the 10th is when we can see some encouraging changes in the Pacific.

If we still have the exact same look in the long range Euro ensembles 1 week from now, then we can be worried that we are shot until after Xmas. But I don't think we need to be on the edge of our seats every run at this point. All the ensembles are telling us right now is that early December will stink which is what we kind of knew anyway. Hopefully the weeklies had the right idea in the pattern change really getting going in that Dec 13-19 time range.

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I do not think we should expect to see the Euro ensembles change a whole lot until maybe around Thanksgiving weekend when they can see beyond Dec 10th. Right now they go out to Dec 4 which has been expected to support a putrid pattern for a while now. MJO will be going through an ugly phase at that time so there is really nothing to force the issue...perhaps by the 10th is when we can see some encouraging changes in the Pacific.

If we still have the exact same look in the long range Euro ensembles 1 week from now, then we can be worried that we are shot until after Xmas. But I don't think we need to be on the edge of our seats every run at this point. All the ensembles are telling us right now is that early December will stink which is what we kind of knew anyway. Hopefully the weeklies had the right idea in the pattern change really getting going in that Dec 13-19 time range.

Will, what do you make of the Euro Ensemble members and the last several runs with the lower latitude mid level cut off signals? There's some pretty interesting scenarios with some of these runs.....would love to get your input.

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Classic Blizz meltdown. So good. What will it be?

A. Winter turns out to be crappy and Blizz claims he is a met AND a prophet.

B. Winter rushes in and December turns out to be snowy and cold after all.Blizz then claims he was never worried and was merely "stirring the pot" to create excitement during the pre Thanksgiving doldrums.

I choose B. Winter will come in like gang busters in December and all of this will be another example of early season jitters.

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Classic Blizz meltdown. So good. What will it be?

A. Winter turns out to be crappy and Blizz claims he is a met AND a prophet.

B. Winter rushes in and December turns out to be snowy and cold after all.Blizz then claims he was never worried and was merely "stirring the pot" to create excitement during the pre Thanksgiving doldrums.

I choose B. Winter will come in like gang busters in December and all of this will be another example of early season jitters.

Scientific explanation of why please

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