Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I agree completely Re: " the other interests". Precisely why I scheduled my Europe trip for November. Most Novembers are thankless around here, with a few nice exceptions. I love snow for Thanksgiving, but only about a 25% shot probably. The last 2 cycles of the operational GFS have finally ...after some 10 cycles or more, come around to the EXTREMELY tightly clustered 1.5SD rise in the PNA prognosticated by the CPC. CDC has done one of their patented stoppages of calculating their values for no apparent reason, episodes, so not sure what is going on with the low level wind flux anomalies the CDC uses (vs CPC's geopotential anomalies). Whether the EPO is on the same page bares less relevance. There is really too, too much emphasis being placed on that particular teleconnector; those doing so are allowing a very myopic overview of the entire system guide their reasoning - which is parlaying into a emotional drive, too. Tsk, tsk. I was reminiscing through the Kocin/Ucellini books the other night and came across a few notable East Coast storms that took place with a +EPO feature, while there was a however-transient at least a +PNAP ridging passing through the west. Over the years I have painfully, tediously so tried to explain the perils of failing to disconnect one's mirth from the weather. For one, more than just the cliche' over this being only November, the objectivity of this thread at times teetered with an embarrassing failure to be blunt. If I were a anonymous Met out there that heard of American, and wanted to see for his/her self, it may not trigger a favorable review. Sure, not to be a hypocrite, sometimes for dark humor I have probably helped perpetuate some of that stigma, admittedly. But, at the end of the day, more in jest. You got to have other hobbies - this goes for the red taggies too . I was at times somewhat bemused as of late when I sited specific reasons why it looked to be turning colder post the 15th of the month, in stages, and instead the next 2 days worth of posts hurled sardonic, backhanded barbs pointed to being doomed until circa December whenever. Here's the issue: you got to do stuff during the "off seasons", those quite times between eras of potency. They will allow you to derive joy regardless. Yes, yes, yes, I am a weather fanatic. I chose this as my blood, sweat, and tearing collegiate career, made it through, and use it for Environmental Science - related software, while maintaining a vigil and commitment to the "art" of middle and extended range forecasting; admittedly, using Internet forums as a proverbial podium much of the time, sure. But, I am also a writer, a runner, a cooking enthusiast, a gardener, love the cinema, with a weakness for sports. All of which offer a bounty in distraction, such that the last 3 weeks of quiescence since the Halloween treat have really not been rough at all. In fact, it has been quite the contrary, as back then I looked at the whole of the NH, and saw some "intangibles" (only possible through objectively considering ...or trying to, the whole system), that suggested the latter half of November would get interesting in the models. Here we have pre-TG thingy to follow, and then a pretty strong signal (at least in the GFS cluster) for a +PNA recovery. Just a waiting period, and an opportunity to enjoy other stuff. So cheer up folks, it's Thanks Giving week! Great football games for those that enjoy the NFL. We have an undefeated Green Bay Packers team going up against a newly born Detroit Lions team that has won enough biggies to prove they are for real. Thanks Giving day is traditionally the Lions and Cowboy's day, so that will add to the intangible element of them showing up to play! That Packers/Lions game is really enough to put the weather dreams away and get into it, it is going to be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Should be interesting to what the euro ensembles will have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Pepper spray. ..Although you have to be pretty fast to get it out in time if some vicious pit bull makes a move at you. i was just at the Arboretum yesterday...too many dogs off leash...bounding around bothering people, and bothering other dogs on leash...and bothering kids in strollers...not to mention stepping in dog poo... i like the leash law...people need to be responsible pet owners...if i'm pushing a baby stroller, how do i know your 130lb german shepherd bounding at me is only looking for a pat-pat...i don't know the personality of your dog from a hole in the wall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Totally totally f''d. 2000-2001 all over agin..The good part is I've recognized it early,,and won't hold on hoping for a switch. Writing is on the wall . umm day 10 is a switch on Euro..that is not a blowtorch on day 10..the weeklies a few weeks ago had a mega SE ridge and 60's and 70's in late November..that is not what day 10 shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 The 12Z GFS pattern shift is post day 10.... so it might even be too soon to see if on the day 10 Euro. umm day 10 is a switch on Euro..that is not a blowtorch on day 10..the weeklies a few weeks ago had a mega SE ridge and 60's and 70's in late November..that is not what day 10 shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 umm day 10 is a switch on Euro..that is not a blowtorch on day 10..the weeklies a few weeks ago had a mega SE ridge and 60's and 70's in late November..that is not what day 10 shows Listen..you are certainly entitled to your own opinion..but that day 10 Euro map is a mess globally. It's not a wintry pattern..and it's not a pattern change. There's no cold in Canada. The ensembles are awful thru mid Dec. All the mets short range and long range guys all are very worried..Ryan who admitedly isn't a long range guy(look at his forecast last winter) is worried about going skiing in Vermont in late Dec. I am hopeful things will turn around..but it's becoming painfully obvious that the entire month of December is lost if you are a winter wx lover. The worst part is seeing posts about winter doesn't start until Dec 21st.. That is BS.. The entire month of Dec is met winter and should be wintry. You can't pin your hopes on having a torch first half and then magically the 2nd half winter starts. It doesn't work like that. There is no sign anywhere..of any type of change to cold.. To me probably the most optimistic met on the board.. ......it is very, very worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Listen..you are certainly entitled to your own opinion..but that day 10 Euro map is a mess globally. It's not a wintry pattern..and it's not a pattern change. There's no cold in Canada. The ensembles are awful thru mid Dec. All the mets short range and long range guys all are very worried..Ryan who admitedly isn't a long range guy(look at his forecast last winter) is worried about going skiing in Vermont in late Dec. I am hopeful things will turn around..but it's becoming painfully obvious that the entire month of December is lost if you are a winter wx lover. The worst part is seeing posts about winter doesn't start until Dec 21st.. That is BS.. The entire month of Dec is met winter and should be wintry. You can't pin your hopes on having a troch first half and then magically the wnd half winter starts. It doesn't work like that. There is no sign anywhere..of any type of change to cold.. To me probably the most optimistic met on the board.. ......it is very, very worrisome Kevin you bailed last year, you bailed this year, we expect no less. Winter did not start until Dec 26th last year, yea last year sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Kevin you bailed last year, you bailed this year, we expect no less. No I never bailed last year. I am not bailing this year. I am simply expressing my worries of a lost month of winter..Just like I did last year. I'm still hopeful Jan and Feb are good months this year. But for you to post this AM that the pattern looks good to you in early Dec is laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 umm day 10 is a switch on Euro..that is not a blowtorch on day 10..the weeklies a few weeks ago had a mega SE ridge and 60's and 70's in late November..that is not what day 10 shows I wouldn't really take a D10 prog verbatim. Here's why: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 No I never bailed last year. I am not bailing this year. I am simply expressing my worries of a lost month of winter..Just like I did last year. I'm still hopeful Jan and Feb are good months this year. But for you to post this AM that the pattern looks good to you in early Dec is laughable Not my problem you can't see the forest through the broken trees. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/m500zusanim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 1993 Leon Lett in the sleet with temps in the 20s in Dallas. its all coming together! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Euro ensembles still hint a some wrap around snows T-Day morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Listen..you are certainly entitled to your own opinion..but that day 10 Euro map is a mess globally. It's not a wintry pattern..and it's not a pattern change. There's no cold in Canada. The ensembles are awful thru mid Dec. All the mets short range and long range guys all are very worried..Ryan who admitedly isn't a long range guy(look at his forecast last winter) is worried about going skiing in Vermont in late Dec. I am hopeful things will turn around..but it's becoming painfully obvious that the entire month of December is lost if you are a winter wx lover. The worst part is seeing posts about winter doesn't start until Dec 21st.. That is BS.. The entire month of Dec is met winter and should be wintry. You can't pin your hopes on having a torch first half and then magically the 2nd half winter starts. It doesn't work like that. There is no sign anywhere..of any type of change to cold.. To me probably the most optimistic met on the board.. ......it is very, very worrisome the whole December is lost..man..what I will do is bring this up when we have a snow threat..and will bring this up again next November...To make a statement like that when it is November 19th is a absurd..the reason you are not seeing a winter pattern because it is NOT WINTER YET..and believe me I have seen worst Euro maps in late November than today's day 10..wish I could get out last years late November,early December maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Euro ensembles still hint a some wrap around snows T-Day morning. Ray loves wrap arounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 2000-2001 was a great winter...i had over 70 inches of snow in Bristol Ct with one 18 inch plus and one 12 inch plus storm...who cares if it started the day before New Years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Albeit 240hrs out, both the EURO and GFS have that cutoff low that seems to hinder the utter torch that would have ensued. Little steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 All of December lies in the day 12 to day 43 time frame. How can anyone say December is lost when you know the accuracy scores of models in that distant time frame? the whole December is lost..man..what I will do is bring this up when we have a snow threat..and will bring this up again next November...To make a statement like that when it is November 19th is a absurd..the reason you are not seeing a winter pattern because it is NOT WINTER YET..and believe me I have seen worst Euro maps in late November than today's day 10..wish I could get out last years late November,early December maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 the whole December is lost..man..what I will do is bring this up when we have a snow threat..and will bring this up again next November...To make a statement like that when it is November 19th is a absurd..the reason you are not seeing a winter pattern because it is NOT WINTER YET..and believe me I have seen worst Euro maps in late November than today's day 10..wish I could get out last years late November,early December maps. EXACTLY ITS NOT WINTER YET !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 2000-2001 was a great winter...i had over 70 inches of snow in Bristol Ct with two foot plus storms...who cares if it started the day before New Years? Kevin meant 2001-2002. He is horrible with dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 All of December lies in the day 12 to day 43 time frame. How can anyone say December is lost when you know the accuracy scores of models in that distant time frame? I was commenting on what CT Blizz said..which I thought was absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 the whole December is lost..man..what I will do is bring this up when we have a snow threat..and will bring this up again next November...To make a statement like that when it is November 19th is a absurd..the reason you are not seeing a winter pattern because it is NOT WINTER YET..and believe me I have seen worst Euro maps in late November than today's day 10..wish I could get out last years late November,early December maps. This is the part I just can't comprehend...Dec 1 is winter... Dec is a winter month..We should be seeing signs of a winter pattern setting in IF WE WANT ANY SUSTAINED WINTRY PERIODS in middle and latter Dec. We aren't seeing a hint of global change anywhere on any model..The MJO blows..the EPO blows worse. There is nothing...NOTHING that says we should not be worrying. Hell we had Will post last night that he was so upset he wanted to throw his laptop out the window..That should be eye opening for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Ray loves wrap arounds. Thinking back to some of my better reach arounds....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Kevin meant 2001-2002. He is horrible with dates. at least we would have xtra money saving on energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Thinking back to some of my better reach arounds....... LOL, please tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 This is the part I just can't comprehend...Dec 1 is winter... Dec is a winter month..We should be seeing signs of a winter pattern setting in IF WE WANT ANY SUSTAINED WINTRY PERIODS in middle and latter Dec. We aren't seeing a hint of global change anywhere on any model..The MJO blows..the EPO blows worse. There is nothing...NOTHING that says we should not be worrying. Hell we had Will post last night that he was so upset he wanted to throw his laptop out the window..That should be eye opening for you It's quite common...in fact the rule over the past 30 years for it to be subpar and decidedly not snowy 12/1-15. Every one has hope for mid December onward. Yes it's a winter month. But BOS climo max for 12/1 is 45-46.....about the same as 3/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I wouldn't really take a D10 prog verbatim. Here's why: I think the message from the last 2 euro runs is that they allow the end of the month storm to go negative and transfer a lot of heat towards the pole. Ginx posted about the Nov. 09 storm on the 19th... The pattern had changed and the snows came 3-4 weeks later. Euro gives hope for something like that. The GFS is Dec. 01 all over again... I remember reading Dr. Dewpoint articles after that winter and he put a lot of blame on the solar activity for the strength of the vortex... Not sure if it's been debunked but I put some creedence into it at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 If the models and ensembles are still showing these same solutions towards the end of their runs in a week or two, we can get a *slight bit* worried. We're still a week away from Thanksgiving. We still need to be patient. The MJO has a ways to go to get into favorable stages. Luckily it's November 19th. Keep rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 The sad reality is though that the first 10 days of December are still mild and rainy half the time in SNE and adjacent ENY probably. We just don't live far enough north for guaranteed winter wx all 31 days of December. I sure wish we did, but we don't. Mid December is 3.5 weeks away and when these pattern changes come they often are not telegraphed well at such a range. This is the part I just can't comprehend...Dec 1 is winter... Dec is a winter month..We should be seeing signs of a winter pattern setting in IF WE WANT ANY SUSTAINED WINTRY PERIODS in middle and latter Dec. We aren't seeing a hint of global change anywhere on any model..The MJO blows..the EPO blows worse. There is nothing...NOTHING that says we should not be worrying. Hell we had Will post last night that he was so upset he wanted to throw his laptop out the window..That should be eye opening for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 It's quite common...in fact the rule over the past 30 years for it to be subpar and decidedly not snowy 12/1-15. Every one has hope for mid December onward. Yes it's a winter month. But BOS climo max for 12/1 is 45-46.....about the same as 3/25. Thank -you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 For the most part I just enjoy reading the boards and they are always worth a laugh or two! I don’t know enough about the weather to get into the technical discos but there are a lot of great meteorologist and non mets on here that do that and I learn something new each day. Seems as though it is going to be rough sledding as we head into December, ok maybe sledding was not the best reference LOL. I for one am just going to take it for what it is and see where we stand come mid December. I know we are located throughout New England from the coast to deep interior. For me on the coast I don’t expect much in terms of snow early on in December, as usually set ups are marginal at best and the ocean is still rather toasty and becomes an issue fast. The past few Decembers have been very kind to the majority, but I would rather go through this period now not in the middle of winter! If we get to mid December and things are still ugly and the extended range from then out looks ugly then yes I might get a little nervous about where we are heading for the rest of winter, but until that point it is what it is. I have a new truck with a brand new plow and I want to use that sooner rather than latter that does not look to be the case but I am confident I will get my chances this winter! I am going to try and get to the next GTG to try and meet some of you folks as it seems like a really good group, full of knowledge when it comes to weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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