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Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

The last 2 cycles of the operational GFS have finally ...after some 10 cycles or more, come around to the EXTREMELY tightly clustered 1.5SD rise in the PNA prognosticated by the CPC. CDC has done one of their patented stoppages of calculating their values for no apparent reason, episodes, so not sure what is going on with the low level wind flux anomalies the CDC uses (vs CPC's geopotential anomalies).

Whether the EPO is on the same page bares less relevance. There is really too, too much emphasis being placed on that particular teleconnector; those doing so are allowing a very myopic overview of the entire system guide their reasoning - which is parlaying into a emotional drive, too. Tsk, tsk. I was reminiscing through the Kocin/Ucellini books the other night and came across a few notable East Coast storms that took place with a +EPO feature, while there was a however-transient at least a +PNAP ridging passing through the west.

Over the years I have painfully, tediously so tried to explain the perils of failing to disconnect one's mirth from the weather. For one, more than just the cliche' over this being only November, the objectivity of this thread at times teetered with an embarrassing failure to be blunt. If I were a anonymous Met out there that heard of American, and wanted to see for his/her self, it may not trigger a favorable review. Sure, not to be a hypocrite, sometimes for dark humor I have probably helped perpetuate some of that stigma, admittedly. But, at the end of the day, more in jest. You got to have other hobbies - this goes for the red taggies too :). I was at times somewhat bemused as of late when I sited specific reasons why it looked to be turning colder post the 15th of the month, in stages, and instead the next 2 days worth of posts hurled sardonic, backhanded barbs pointed to being doomed until circa December whenever.

Here's the issue: you got to do stuff during the "off seasons", those quite times between eras of potency. They will allow you to derive joy regardless. Yes, yes, yes, I am a weather fanatic. I chose this as my blood, sweat, and tearing collegiate career, made it through, and use it for Environmental Science - related software, while maintaining a vigil and commitment to the "art" of middle and extended range forecasting; admittedly, using Internet forums as a proverbial podium much of the time, sure.

But, I am also a writer, a runner, a cooking enthusiast, a gardener, love the cinema, with a weakness for sports. All of which offer a bounty in distraction, such that the last 3 weeks of quiescence since the Halloween treat have really not been rough at all. In fact, it has been quite the contrary, as back then I looked at the whole of the NH, and saw some "intangibles" (only possible through objectively considering ...or trying to, the whole system), that suggested the latter half of November would get interesting in the models. Here we have pre-TG thingy to follow, and then a pretty strong signal (at least in the GFS cluster) for a +PNA recovery. Just a waiting period, and an opportunity to enjoy other stuff.

So cheer up folks, it's Thanks Giving week! Great football games for those that enjoy the NFL. We have an undefeated Green Bay Packers team going up against a newly born Detroit Lions team that has won enough biggies to prove they are for real. Thanks Giving day is traditionally the Lions and Cowboy's day, so that will add to the intangible element of them showing up to play! That Packers/Lions game is really enough to put the weather dreams away and get into it, it is going to be epic.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Just finished up a nice visit with Cold Miser and family, great folks. :thumbsup:

I started thinking about the panic attacks I have witnessed over the years on this board. My favorite was the meltdowns in Nov. prior to our CP Dec 09 KU.

The Nov 19 Euro map looked almost exactly like our progged Euro maps. Everyone was panicking, Mets continually pointed out how awful things looked and others feared Dec would be lost. We finished Nov + 4, On Dec 3rd we hit 70 degrees with +22 departures region wide and then the change occurred. We finished Dec -2.5 or so. Not saying it is a similar pattern but it does show that at this time of year the pointing out how awful a two week period looks means very little to the meat of winter. This is the map from Nov 19, 09 look familiar?

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
The last 2 cycles of the operational GFS have finally ...after some 10 cycles or more, come around to the EXTREMELY tightly clustered 1.5SD rise in the PNA prognosticated by the CPC. CDC has done one of their patented stoppages of calculating their values for no apparent reason, episodes, so not sure what is going on with the low level wind flux anomalies the CDC uses (vs CPC's geopotential anomalies).

Whether the EPO is on the same page bares less relevance. There is really too, too much emphasis being placed on that particular teleconnector; those doing so are allowing a very myopic overview of the <b><i>entire system </i></b>guide their reasoning - which is parlaying into a emotional drive, too. Tsk, tsk. I was reminiscing through the Kocin/Ucellini books the other night and came across a few notable East Coast storms that took place with a +EPO feature, while there was a however-transient at least a +PNAP ridging passing through the west.

Over the years I have painfully, tediously so tried to explain the perils of failing to disconnect one's mirth from the weather. For one, more than just the cliche' over this being only November, the objectivity of this thread at times teetered with an embarrassing failure to be blunt. If I were a anonymous Met out there that heard of American, and wanted to see for his/her self, it may not trigger a favorable review. Sure, not to be a hypocrite, sometimes for dark humor I have probably helped perpetuate some of that stigma, admittedly. But, at the end of the day, more in jest. You got to have other hobbies - this goes for the red taggies too <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' />. I was at times somewhat bemused as of late when I sited specific reasons why it looked to be turning colder post the 15th of the month, in stages, and instead the next 2 days worth of posts hurled sardonic, backhanded barbs pointed to being doomed until circa December whenever.

Here's the issue: you got to do stuff during the "off seasons", those quite times between eras of potency. They will allow you to derive joy regardless. Yes, yes, yes, I am a weather fanatic. I chose this as my blood, sweat, and tearing collegiate career, made it through, and use it for Environmental Science - related software, while maintaining a vigil and commitment to the "art" of middle and extended range forecasting; admittedly, using Internet forums as a proverbial podium much of the time, sure.

But, I am also a writer, a runner, a cooking enthusiast, a gardener, love the cinema, with a weakness for sports. All of which offer a bounty in distraction, such that the last 3 weeks of quiescence since the Halloween treat have really not been rough at all. In fact, it has been quite the contrary, as back then I looked at the whole of the NH, and saw some "intangibles" (only possible through objectively considering ...or trying to, the whole system), that suggested the latter half of November would get interesting in the models. Here we have pre-TG thingy to follow, and then a pretty strong signal (at least in the GFS cluster) for a +PNA recovery. Just a waiting period, and an opportunity to enjoy other stuff.

So cheer up folks, it's Thanks Giving week! Great football games for those that enjoy the NFL. We have an undefeated Green Bay Packers team going up against a newly born Detroit Lions team that has won enough biggies to prove they are for real. Thanks Giving day is traditionally the Lions and Cowboy's day, so that will add to the intangible element of them showing up to play! That Packers/Lions game is really enough to put the weather dreams away and get into it, it is going to be epic.

Outstanding post John! Within 2 weeks of my 65th birthday, I am thankful for my good health, my good fortune in being able to be educated such that a very good living is pretty much automatic, and the lovely region we live in. Winter will come. Meanwhile, enjoy what we have!

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

The last 2 cycles of the operational GFS have finally ...after some 10 cycles or more, come around to the EXTREMELY tightly clustered 1.5SD rise in the PNA prognosticated by the CPC. CDC has done one of their patented stoppages of calculating their values for no apparent reason, episodes, so not sure what is going on with the low level wind flux anomalies the CDC uses (vs CPC's geopotential anomalies).

Whether the EPO is on the same page bares less relevance. There is really too, too much emphasis being placed on that particular teleconnector; those doing so are allowing a very myopic overview of the entire system guide their reasoning - which is parlaying into a emotional drive, too. Tsk, tsk. I was reminiscing through the Kocin/Ucellini books the other night and came across a few notable East Coast storms that took place with a +EPO feature, while there was a however-transient at least a +PNAP ridging passing through the west.

Over the years I have painfully, tediously so tried to explain the perils of failing to disconnect one's mirth from the weather. For one, more than just the cliche' over this being only November, the objectivity of this thread at times teetered with an embarrassing failure to be blunt. If I were a anonymous Met out there that heard of American, and wanted to see for his/her self, it may not trigger a favorable review. Sure, not to be a hypocrite, sometimes for dark humor I have probably helped perpetuate some of that stigma, admittedly. But, at the end of the day, more in jest. You got to have other hobbies - this goes for the red taggies too :). I was at times somewhat bemused as of late when I sited specific reasons why it looked to be turning colder post the 15th of the month, in stages, and instead the next 2 days worth of posts hurled sardonic, backhanded barbs pointed to being doomed until circa December whenever.

Here's the issue: you got to do stuff during the "off seasons", those quite times between eras of potency. They will allow you to derive joy regardless. Yes, yes, yes, I am a weather fanatic. I chose this as my blood, sweat, and tearing collegiate career, made it through, and use it for Environmental Science - related software, while maintaining a vigil and commitment to the "art" of middle and extended range forecasting; admittedly, using Internet forums as a proverbial podium much of the time, sure.

But, I am also a writer, a runner, a cooking enthusiast, a gardener, love the cinema, with a weakness for sports. All of which offer a bounty in distraction, such that the last 3 weeks of quiescence since the Halloween treat have really not been rough at all. In fact, it has been quite the contrary, as back then I looked at the whole of the NH, and saw some "intangibles" (only possible through objectively considering ...or trying to, the whole system), that suggested the latter half of November would get interesting in the models. Here we have pre-TG thingy to follow, and then a pretty strong signal (at least in the GFS cluster) for a +PNA recovery. Just a waiting period, and an opportunity to enjoy other stuff.

So cheer up folks, it's Thanks Giving week! Great football games for those that enjoy the NFL. We have an undefeated Green Bay Packers team going up against a newly born Detroit Lions team that has won enough biggies to prove they are for real. Thanks Giving day is traditionally the Lions and Cowboy's day, so that will add to the intangible element of them showing up to play! That Packers/Lions game is really enough to put the weather dreams away and get into it, it is going to be epic.

you forgot about the niners game.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Posted
Just finished up a nice visit with Cold Miser and family, great folks. <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/thumbsupsmileyanim.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':thumbsup:' />

I started thinking about the panic attacks I have witnessed over the years on this board. My favorite was the meltdowns in Nov. prior to our CP Dec 09 KU.

The Nov 19 Euro map looked almost exactly like our progged Euro maps. Everyone was panicking, Mets continually pointed out how awful things looked and others feared Dec would be lost. We finished Nov + 4, On Dec 3rd we hit 70 degrees with +22 departures region wide and then the change occurred. We finished Dec -2.5 or so. Not saying it is a similar pattern but it does show that at this time of year the pointing out how awful a two week period looks means very little to the meat of winter. This is the map from Nov 10, 09 look familiar?

I get your point but that winter sucked for most of us.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Posted

We already cancelled the trip to Sunday River after Christmas - be the first time in several years we weren't there for NYE. I don't like what I'm seeing and I'm not paying hundreds of bucks a day to ski on half baked trails/limited terrain with the kids. hurt if it doesn't snow in the population centers. That's the way it's always been. Even worse if we're wearing cargo shots and hawaiin shirts in December. Prices had gone so high the past two years we needed an off start to the winter to drive prices down a little anyway. Talking to some of the agents for places in Vermont....they're running behind last year in terms of bookings.

I think it'll be a good season come January but I'm going to wait this year. They can't build much of a base with temps like we're going to be seeing and not much snow.

The reason all my week longs are in March,tons of snow and no peoples. But seriously its Nov 19th, even two weeks of shi t weather allows them 3 weeks of natural and snowmaking. I say they have 90 + trails open Christmas week, your call?

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#NoPoles

#NoPoles

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Posted

Probably the one of me picking up doggy doo. Incidentally the increased leash law enforcement have lessened the dog appeal of the arboretum but it's still a great place....,will be with deep snow.

i was just at the Arboretum yesterday...too many dogs off leash...bounding around bothering people, and bothering other dogs on leash...and bothering kids in strollers...not to mention stepping in dog poo...

i like the leash law...people need to be responsible pet owners...if i'm pushing a baby stroller, how do i know your 130lb german shepherd bounding at me is only looking for a pat-pat...i don't know the personality of your dog from a hole in the wall...

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weathafella

weathafella

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Posted

i was just at the Arboretum yesterday...too many dogs off leash...bounding around bothering people, and bothering other dogs on leash...and bothering kids in strollers...not to mention stepping in dog poo...

i like the leash law...people need to be responsible pet owners...if i'm pushing a baby stroller, how do i know your 130lb german shepherd bounding at me is only looking for a pat-pat...i don't know the personality of your dog from a hole in the wall...

I agree with you but there are areas where dog owners go and people with strollers can't. No need for someone to get a ticket a hundred yards from the nearest person with a very well behaved and controllable dog off leash.

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