Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Post 240 hours on the GFS the AK vortex gets increasingly beat down and seems to be obliterated by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Post 240 hours on the GFS the AK vortex gets increasingly beat down and seems to be obliterated by the end of the run. 0c line was all the way into the gulf of mexico at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 12z gfs ensembles track the weds low NE underneath sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 You may be in a good spot on this next one.. well i might get a couple few inches of sloppy snow. maybe a bit more to my south in N VT and especially more in N maine. it would be nice to see some snow finally as we are pushing record values.....but if its going to melt a couple days later and i'm more of a snowpack guy......though i guess it will be good to be 'off the shnide (sp?)' as they say. but i'm more interested in the longer term pattern. to be honest, the fact that we haven't seen any snow here is very strange, but the fact that we have no snow on the ground currently isn't unusual. there is a well-regarded cut-off date here. its right around december 10th, should have a snowpack (and hence winter) on the ground by that date, or have a snowstorm forecast that occurs. if not, its going to be a bad december. the last 3 years have been prime examples for that cuttoff date as a start to snowpack season. 2010....december 7 2009....december 9 2008....december 10 all turned out to be solid decembers (2-4 feet of snow). there are many more examples of this date going back in time. so its common to waste the first week of december and still have winter come in with a vengeance. then you have the winters where there was no snow on the ground december 10 or no snow forecast, like 2006, 2002, 2001. all turned out to be terrible decembers here (approx <1 foot snow) so around december 5th or so is when i will start to get more worried if we don't see any pattern change on the horizon (ie in 7 days or so from then). looking over theses stats also reminds me why i need to spend more time an hour and a half to my west in ottawa ....although they havent see any snow, not even a T, yet either this season which is shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 also GFS cuts off a low in the east after next weekend..would put a hold on the blowtorch that most have been forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Wow... just read the thread from last night til this morning... was absolutely LOLing at kevin's posts. Kevin just 4 days ago lol "I have to say..I am putting little stock in the Euro weeklies/monthlies, yearlies, decadlies..whatever...they were pretty bad last winter and so far have proved even worse this autumn. it wasn't long ago when they showed a cold ,promising pattern setting up for Thanksgiving week and beyond..I used to think they were decent..but in reality they're not" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Always amusing to watch poor Kevin's reaction to stuff. Congratulations Roger Smith....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Wow... just read the thread from last night til this morning... was absolutely LOLing at kevin's posts. Kevin just 4 days ago lol "I have to say..I am putting little stock in the Euro weeklies/monthlies, yearlies, decadlies..whatever...they were pretty bad last winter and so far have proved even worse this autumn. it wasn't long ago when they showed a cold ,promising pattern setting up for Thanksgiving week and beyond..I used to think they were decent..but in reality they're not" This is why I put more stock in what's being talked about on the main thread versus what the GFS/Euro are showing. A change to a colder pattern mid December is far from a unamious decision at this point. It's going to be nip and tuck and if the models are retrograding in the PAC too fast 12/11 is screwed, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Always amusing to watch poor Kevin's reaction to stuff. Congratulations Roger Smith....lol... I'll have to admit.. I'm feeling kind of down right now too, but EVERYONE is in the same boat right now... its not like MA, RI, and CT are getting a MECS and I'm foretasted for 1-3". I guess we can all sulk together and just wait for optimism from will, tip, scott, phil, and Ry(wait..nevermind)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I do think the first half of December is similar to the current pattern but we'll start seeing clear signs of the flip by 12/10 with sensible wx responding 12/20-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 And I'd wait for the ensembles to come out day 11-15 before getting too excited about the op run. The ensembles have shown exceptional agreement and consistency which makes the day 10-20 pattern forecast relatively high confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 LOL, GFS went from Cape May to Pete's house in a day. Show's you how impeccable timing was needed for snow. That nrn stream was everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I do think the first half of December is similar to the current pattern but we'll start seeing clear signs of the flip by 12/10 with sensible wx responding 12/20-28. Yeah I'd say this is definitely possible, Jerry. What I'm worried about is a dislodging of the AK vortex/+EPO pattern that is only temporary. Would hate to see it come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Get used to the GFS bring weenies up, then violently deflating them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 And the sensible wx parallels to 1993 remain striking in November including the quick hitting transient cold on Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 And the sensible wx parallels to 1993 remain striking in November including the quick hitting transient cold on Thanksgiving. make it so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 make it so. <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> Ole man winter's in the shop...working on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 A Tip Shakespearean Depressing Monologue incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 And the sensible wx parallels to 1993 remain striking in November including the quick hitting transient cold on Thanksgiving. If this winter is like '93-'94, I will build a statue of you, in the Arboretum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 It's amazing...from the stratosphere, down to the fannies of polar bears, it is so dam cold up by AK. For all the people crying about sea ice loss.....you want it, you got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 It's amazing...from the stratosphere, down to the fannies of polar bears, it is so dam cold up by AK. For all the people crying about sea ice loss.....you want it, you got it. lol yeah. Vortex of death up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 lol yeah. Vortex of death up there. With the ridging up there, +AMO, -NAO...sea ice has taken a hit. This AK trough is something we haven't seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 So much for Kevin's cold week. The pattern is so atrocious it is not going to take much to start getting strings of +5 or even +10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Get used to the GFS bring weenies up, then violently deflating them. No shyte... this has been the daily roller coaster run to run.... Yea! winter is here! Booo! winter cancel... Always seems to be out at 240+ hours, too...lol Hey, my p-n-c shows/mentions snow at least 4 times this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 With the ridging up there, +AMO, -NAO...sea ice has taken a hit. This AK trough is something we haven't seen in a while. Yup. Oh well. Better now than in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 So much for Kevin's cold week. The pattern is so atrocious it is not going to take much to start getting strings of +5 or even +10 days. Not a bad + departure for d7 MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Not a bad + departure for d7 MOS. Yup. There was a shot at getting some sneaky cold in here on the cold side of the boundary but that seems to be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 If this winter is like '93-'94, I will build a statue of you, in the Arboretum. Probably the one of me picking up doggy doo. Incidentally the increased leash law enforcement have lessened the dog appeal of the arboretum but it's still a great place....,will be with deep snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Anyone else having issues with the board the past few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Well JB says a flip to an eastern trough is coming. I haven't yet succumbed and paid for his new website though so all I see is his headlines. With the ridging up there, +AMO, -NAO...sea ice has taken a hit. This AK trough is something we haven't seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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