powderfreak Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Yeah you guys will be in decent shape... I worry about areas further south like Killington and Mt Snow especially. They could have a really horrible December. It's going to be interesting to see how things shape up. Yeah December is huge for the winter recreation business... people want cold/snow through the holidays then they slowly start to lose interest. By late February they could really care less if it snows. Its like the LitchfieldLibations syndrome where you want snow for the holidays then its more a hassle after that. Winters like 2006-2007 are awful for business even though it turned out ok in the snow department... its just that over 200" fell after February 13th and by that time the folks that spend money up here are already past caring. Its great for the locals and our "core" group of skiers/riders... but 75% of our revenue comes from folks that ski less than 10 times per season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 This is just further proof that long range winter forecasts are largely useless. Last year they all forecast an early flip to milder that never came ...until maybe later February. This year so far no cold in sight and it was supposed to be an early onset. I waste very little time on that stuff. I also don't think much of the Euro monthlies and stuff like that. Really the only thing that seems likely now is that through about day 10-15 we don't yet flip the pattern. December 10th (21 days ahead) is still up for grabs. All those cold and snowy winter forecasts..This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm honestly getting worried about a trip up to VT to go skiing after xmas. Turns out you won't be able to go because all the roads are closed for a massive blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 This is just further proof that long range winter forecasts are largely useless. Last year they all forecast an early flip to milder that never came ...until maybe later February. This year so far no cold in sight and it was supposed to be an early onset. I waste very little time on that stuff. I also don't think much of the Euro monthlies and stuff like that. Really the only thing that seems likely now is that through about day 10-15 we don't yet flip the pattern. December 10th (21 days ahead) is still up for grabs. Congratulations on being ignorant of developing science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 ANyone else having trouble with this board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 ANyone else having trouble with this board? You mean how we've lost 50% of our members to suicides? But yeah, the board is faltering now and then for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 You mean how we've lost 50% of our members to suicides? But yeah, the board is faltering now and then for me Same here since yesterday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I was reading HM's posts last night in the thread on the main board...he seemed to think the opposite. I think we may be thinking similar. What I mean is that the MJO forcing through p3-5 and into 6 may be enough to help disturb the vortex an shift it around. There is a lot of noise this time of year as the atmosphere transitions into the winter state. I'm not a big fan of composites sometimes, because one phase of the MJO might mean something totally different at the beginning of December than at the end of December. However, the principles of the tropical forcing still apply. That's why, imo, if we get this thing to swing around through some of these phases....it may try to dislodge and disturb the vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 In a really atrocious winter you just skip NE and head straight to Tremblant or Mont Ste. Anne. It's always good up there and those kind of winters really tend to dump on the Laurentians. Example....Tremblant got a couple feet out of that Jan. 1998 ice storm further south. I went up there after that and it was all powder. But hopefully all the doom and gloom is not born out..... I was just thinking the same thing. I've got plans to go up to visit a friend in Montpelier New Years week. It's very difficult for a ski area to make headway with the man made stuff when they can only run the guns at night. Plus man made doesn't really cut it w/o at least one good base building dump thrown in the mix. Might have to trek the extra distance up to Jay Peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 ANyone else having trouble with this board? Yup... it even "types" slowly...some sort of lag. And all of the bad news seems to be an issue, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 ANyone else having trouble with this board? John thinks it may be a DNS issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I suppose it could end as a little snow up by you, but maybe Vim Toot and Powderfreak can rejoice the ski areas are getting snow and the economy of northern New England can be salvaged. whatever snow falls will be all gone shortly thereafter. economy fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Scientific research is great ...more power to them for pursuing it, but right now it's too much in it's infancy for me to take it that seriously. What are the odds on these winter forecasts 55% accuracy maybe? Congratulations on being ignorant of developing science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 John thinks it may be a DNS issue. Does Not Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Scientific research is great ...more power to them for pursuing it, but right now it's too much in it's infancy for me to take it that seriously. What are the odds on these winter forecasts 55% accuracy maybe? Well, it certainly is in it's infancy. You can also find a dozen long range forecasts that are in a dozen directions, and they are all by reliable mets... I think the next 10 years or so will see huge strides. It seems to work ok in the broad sense, but anything more than regional (ie Northeastern US) and it is a "crap chute" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 If you go back to the first post of the thread, you can see why having that northern stream run out ahead of the southern wave was so important if we were going to try and get snow....and what happens now (look at the recent model runs) when you get a phase with zero blocking in place. You end up with a storm running up through BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 If you go back to the first post of the thread, you can see why having that northern stream run out ahead of the southern wave was so important if we were going to try and get snow....and what happens now (look at the recent model runs) when you get a phase with zero blocking in place. You end up with a storm running up through BGM. I was discussing this with wiz yesterday, That an earlier phase with no blocking was going to run this system further north and flood us with milder air, We would be better of with a weaker system at this point to suppress the track some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 After reading the last 5 pages or so on here, Does anyone have the dead kitten count? lol astronomically high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Does Not Snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I actually find the situation this week somewhat encouraging for our latitude in the broader (winter season) sense. Move this whole scenario out to around December 20th and we are probably looking at a nice overunning snow event for central/northern NY/NE. Yeah it's a crappy pattern for most of the CONUS, but this is how we can still get good snowfalls even while the rest of the east is in despair. It's just too early probably to pull that off before Thanksgiving. Gotta have an optimum +PNA etc. to score significant snowfalls in November. Such is not the case during met. winter and it snows here in above normal patterns. In the garbage winter of 05-06 you'll find a few such svenarious where decent snowfalls occurred. I don't aspire to have another 05-06, but just to make a case in point. Well, it certainly is in it's infancy. You can also find a dozen long range forecasts that are in a dozen directions, and they are all by reliable mets... I think the next 10 years or so will see huge strides. It seems to work ok in the broad sense, but anything more than regional (ie Northeastern US) and it is a "crap chute" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 lol astronomically high. You may be in a good spot on this next one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm honestly getting worried about a trip up to VT to go skiing after xmas. We already cancelled the trip to Sunday River after Christmas - be the first time in several years we weren't there for NYE. I don't like what I'm seeing and I'm not paying hundreds of bucks a day to ski on half baked trails/limited terrain with the kids. Taking a cruise to Central America as we have relatives from England staying at our house that week anyway. If we didn't do something it was going to be wall to wall people here. Works out for everyone. Ski areas will hurt if it doesn't snow in the population centers. That's the way it's always been. Even worse if we're wearing cargo shots and hawaiin shirts in December. Prices had gone so high the past two years we needed an off start to the winter to drive prices down a little anyway. Talking to some of the agents for places in Vermont....they're running behind last year in terms of bookings. I think it'll be a good season come January but I'm going to wait this year. They can't build much of a base with temps like we're going to be seeing and not much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 If you go back to the first post of the thread, you can see why having that northern stream run out ahead of the southern wave was so important if we were going to try and get snow....and what happens now (look at the recent model runs) when you get a phase with zero blocking in place. You end up with a storm running up through BGM. I said this yesterday as well. We just do not want a phased solution. Still early though in the season for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm not sure that would be over BGM if this was a month later and the cold air pressing from Canada was stronger. Even if it was we'd probably have a decent front end dump etc. It's asking a lot to get significant snow in such a marginal situation on November 22nd or so. If you go back to the first post of the thread, you can see why having that northern stream run out ahead of the southern wave was so important if we were going to try and get snow....and what happens now (look at the recent model runs) when you get a phase with zero blocking in place. You end up with a storm running up through BGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I said this yesterday as well. We just do not want a phased solution. Still early though in the season for many. I saw you mention this yesterday. In a few weeks hopefully it will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Maybe a threat for low-topped squall line around Dec 1st? 12/1/06 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Of course I'm P.O'd about not having much winter wx before December 15th etc. this year also. But there is a certain resignation that we live at 42.8N here and many years winter just doesn't set in good until the latter half of December. It certainly isn't toaster in the bath time yet. I really would love to live up above 45N and maybe one day in retirement or something. Let the weak ones go to the adult communities in FL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm not sure that would be over BGM if this was a month later and the cold air pressing from Canada was stronger. Even if it was we'd probably have a decent front end dump etc. It's asking a lot to get significant snow in such a marginal situation on November 22nd or so. In a month it would probably be 1-3" on the front, then some ice for the interior and then a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 OP 12z GFS really develops a +PNA in early December..with some interesting stuff..not much cold..but without a doubt a better pattern!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Actually thinking about 05-06 we had a very wintry Thanksgiving that year. A several inch synopotic snowfall and then good LES and really biting wind, etc. that night.... That was my first T-day up here. Goes to show that it certainly didn't foretell a good cold winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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