CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Unfortunately it's still really ugly. I'd like to see that trough over Alaska/GOA completely gone and replaced by ridging. Given it's a 360 hour forecast you know there must be a large amount of members with a rather sizable vortex continuing. I know we've discussed this before so we're sort of beating a dead horse but the +EPO is killing us. We can maybe modulate the PNA enough to teleconnect to some east coast troughing but the Nina pattern is going to keep pumping up the SE Ridge. Unfortunately the end of the ensembles bring us to Dec 4... and at that point the models still aren't showing much of a change at all. That's why I'm thinking mid month or a little later for a total change. Maybe even closer to Christmas? I don't know. That vortex is still pushing crap air into Canada which is why it is colder in Hudson Bay and points ne. This would have been a prime opportunity to have a -NAO, but alas it is gone for now. I think the ends of the ensembles have been getting slightly better with time, but there is a lot of work to do. Maybe a yo-yo type deal before an actual change? If people just think later rather than sooner, two things will happen. 1) If it is earlier, weenies will be happy. 2) If it waits until mid month or later, weenies won't be surprised and families of weenies won't have to plan funerals instead of Holiday dinner arrangements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 The GEFS for the MJO just rot the wave in the COD. They are against the world right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 That's why I'm thinking mid month or a little later for a total change. Maybe even closer to Christmas? I don't know. That vortex is still pushing crap air into Canada which is why it is colder in Hudson Bay and points ne. This would have been a prime opportunity to have a -NAO, but alas it is gone for now. I think the ends of the ensembles have been getting slightly better with time, but there is a lot of work to do. Maybe a yo-yo type deal before an actual change? If people just think later rather than sooner, two things will happen. 1) If it is earlier, weenies will be happy. 2) If it waits until mid month or later, weenies won't be surprised and families of weenies won't have to plan funerals instead of dinner arrangements. Another thing to note the MJO forecasts have been steadily showing the wave really deamplifying into the COD by early December. That may have important implications in keeping the AK vortex in place as opposed to getting a solid MJO wave heading toward the central Pac and helping break down the +EPO. Also the post you had earlier (maybe last night?) about the ripping +AO is going to be a problem beyond the next couple weeks. It's going to take a lot to break that icebox in the stratosphere over the NP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 The GEFS for the MJO just rot the wave in the COD. They are against the world right now. lol just posted the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 We are so f'ing screwed. Dec is gone..MArch is gone. All we have possibly are Jan and Feb. I need to get away from this .Later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 LL has his torch glasses on. Save your breath. LOL, enjoy the inferno Pete, when winter shows up we will let you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 We are so f'ing screwed. Dec is gone..MArch is gone. All we have possibly are Jan and Feb. I need to get away from this .Later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Another thing to note the MJO forecasts have been steadily showing the wave really deamplifying into the COD by early December. That may have important implications in keeping the AK vortex in place as opposed to getting a solid MJO wave heading toward the central Pac and helping break down the +EPO. Also the post you had earlier (maybe last night?) about the ripping +AO is going to be a problem beyond the next couple weeks. It's going to take a lot to break that icebox in the stratosphere over the NP. That might have been someone else posting that, but yeah the AO is defintely positive for a while to come. The stratosphere did a huge flip in November last year, but it just seems like it is cold and stable right now. Maybe with a downwelling -QBO it can shuffle around? I'm not a stratospheric guy. I also thought a lower solar flux help keep the stratosphere cooler and disturbs the whole PV, but I'm probably wrong in that. Maybe it's the ozone increase warming the higher troposphere and lower stratosphere and disturbing the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 We are so f'ing screwed. Dec is gone..MArch is gone. All we have possibly are Jan and Feb. I need to get away from this .Later Take it easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 LOL, enjoy the inferno Pete, when winter shows up we will let you know. Winter's already here Joe. Hard for you to imagine living down there on the equator. Tomorrow looks warm here but the reat of the week looks average. Have you even seen 1 snowflake yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 That might have been someone else posting that, but yeah the AO is defintely positive for a while to come. Yeah...I believe it was Nick last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Take it easy. What a drama Queen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 After reading the last 5 pages or so on here, Does anyone have the dead kitten count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 That might have been someone else posting that, but yeah the AO is defintely positive for a while to come. The stratosphere did a huge flip in November last year, but it just seems like it is cold and stable right now. And I think it's only going to get colder and more stable as we see the pattern lock in place. Have to totally disturb the vortex to get something to break. Can't rely on a stratospheric warming from solar stuff until later in the season... right now we need to rely on the tropics to come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm honestly getting worried about a trip up to VT to go skiing after xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm sorry for implying YOU were cancelling Winter. It's more the tone of some in here. HubbJi for instance. Droopy dog posts about how December will torch despite it being 10 days out before the first of the month. It's laughable that people get so invested over LR model forcasts. As far as I can tell they are almost worthless. Anyway, we'll see about T-day. I won't be surprised to see the ground whitened. It happened twice this week without much support. We can revisit this in a few days. Regardless, I remain bullish for a good season including a good December. Lol... just kidding around Pete... well, er ... mostly We will get in a winter. It just going to be a bit delayed after our October trouncing. As mentioned before, I could only wind up with 60% of my normal Nov-April snow and still have near or above normal thanks to the 23" I have already experienced. Still bullish on Jan and Feb, and even March. I will probably be skiing in less than a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 That might have been someone else posting that, but yeah the AO is defintely positive for a while to come. The stratosphere did a huge flip in November last year, but it just seems like it is cold and stable right now. Maybe with a downwelling -QBO it can shuffle around? I'm not a stratospheric guy. I also thought a lower solar flux help keep the stratosphere cooler and disturbs the whole PV, but I'm probably wrong in that. Maybe it's the ozone increase warming the higher troposphere and lower stratosphere and disturbing the PV. What was the mechanism behind that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 And I think it's only going to get colder and more stable as we see the pattern lock in place. Have to totally disturb the vortex to get something to break. Can't rely on a stratospheric warming from solar stuff until later in the season... right now we need to rely on the tropics to come through. What caused the flip last year? MJO and some bottom up warming from the wave? I assume that's what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm honestly getting worried about a trip up to VT to go skiing after xmas. Way to early for that, but it will start to creep into our minds after the first week of December if we are way behind on our snowmaking and terrain expansion. The *only* good caveat is that even in bad winters we have orographic lift and upslope helping us out... so if the synoptics can't work, sometimes we can get lucky with relatively good conditions locally from upslope (Sugarbush north through Stowe and Jay). Every winter I've been here there's at least one 20-30" upslope event that at least helps the situation even if it settles to only a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Way to early for that, but it will start to creep into our minds after the first week of December if we are way behind on our snowmaking and terrain expansion. The *only* good caveat is that even in bad winters we have orographic lift and upslope helping us out... so if the synoptics can't work, sometimes we can get lucky with relatively good conditions locally from upslope (Sugarbush north through Stowe and Jay). Every winter I've been here there's at least one 20-30" upslope event that at least helps the situation even if it settles to only a foot. Yeah I hope you guys get dumped on. I'm meh for here... don't really need any snow here. The thing is we're going to begin to enter a short window to build up a solid base and open terrain for 12/26 etc. Going to take a bit of luck in the 12/15-12/25 time frame. We could really be inhaling fumes through 12/10 or 12/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Way to early for that, but it will start to creep into our minds after the first week of December if we are way behind on our snowmaking and terrain expansion. The *only* good caveat is that even in bad winters we have orographic lift and upslope helping us out... so if the synoptics can't work, sometimes we can get lucky with relatively good conditions locally from upslope (Sugarbush north through Stowe and Jay). Every winter I've been here there's at least one 20-30" upslope event that at least helps the situation even if it settles to only a foot. Well, the snowmaking and Stowe's favorable topography would allow operations to continue, but the "brown in the backyard" syndrome could hurt visits I assume... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Yeah I hope you guys get dumped on. I'm meh for here... don't really need any snow here. The thing is we're going to begin to enter a short window to build up a solid base and open terrain for 12/26 etc. Going to take a bit of luck in the 12/15-12/25 time frame. We could really be inhaling fumes through 12/10 or 12/15. Yeah that's the worst time frame possible too... in a perfect world we wouldn't want to be making much snow during the holiday period. We get so many complaints from people if the snow guns are running during the busy times that its easier just to not do it. However, if we have no choice, it'll happen. But yeah, due to upslope our snowfall is pretty reliable even in the bad winters. Even in warm winters its still plenty cold on the upper mountain for snow most of the time (ie, 2001-2002 was still 281" at our summit measuring spot). The worst winter in the past 10-15 winters was 2009-2010 and that was because of suppression (mid-Atlantic winter). I actually fear suppression more than a warm winter, TBH. Its funny how it works, but really cold weather leads to lower snowfall whereas we do good with temps averaging 2-4F above normal with more available moisture. I'm already starting to wonder where this winter will fall as far as snowfall above 3,000ft... man if only we could get another 2000-2001 with over 400" and a 140" settled snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Well, the snowmaking and Stowe's favorable topography would allow operations to continue, but the "brown in the backyard" syndrome could hurt visits I assume... Which is the usual case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 What caused the flip last year? MJO and some bottom up warming from the wave? I assume that's what it was. Breaking the Pac jet I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Yeah that's the worst time frame possible too... in a perfect world we wouldn't want to be making much snow during the holiday period. We get so many complaints from people if the snow guns are running during the busy times that its easier just to not do it. However, if we have no choice, it'll happen. But yeah, due to upslope our snowfall is pretty reliable even in the bad winters. Even in warm winters its still plenty cold on the upper mountain for snow most of the time (ie, 2001-2002 was still 281" at our summit measuring spot). The worst winter in the past 10-15 winters was 2009-2010 and that was because of suppression (mid-Atlantic winter). I actually fear suppression more than a warm winter, TBH. Its funny how it works, but really cold weather leads to lower snowfall whereas we do good with temps averaging 2-4F above normal with more available moisture. I'm already starting to wonder where this winter will fall as far as snowfall above 3,000ft... man if only we could get another 2000-2001 with over 400" and a 140" settled snowpack. Yeah you guys will be in decent shape... I worry about areas further south like Killington and Mt Snow especially. They could have a really horrible December. It's going to be interesting to see how things shape up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Well, the snowmaking and Stowe's favorable topography would allow operations to continue, but the "brown in the backyard" syndrome could hurt visits I assume... That is certainly a huge concern... even when we were getting fringed last January we had record levels of business. It was just that when the folks from CT would come up and say they have more snow in their front yard than we do in Stowe, they really couldn't understand it. Ahhh, the general public and weather, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Breaking the Pac jet I assume. That's why we gotta get the MJO to swing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 That's why we gotta get the MJO to swing around. Yup. The stronger the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm honestly getting worried about a trip up to VT to go skiing after xmas. I was just thinking the same thing. I've got plans to go up to visit a friend in Montpelier New Years week. It's very difficult for a ski area to make headway with the man made stuff when they can only run the guns at night. Plus man made doesn't really cut it w/o at least one good base building dump thrown in the mix. Might have to trek the extra distance up to Jay Peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 That's why we gotta get the MJO to swing around. I was reading HM's posts last night in the thread on the main board...he seemed to think the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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