Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Noone was thinking that.You guys all thought after Dec 10th..Now you're extending it to the New Year well...new years is after dec 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Based on what? I think I'll wake up Thursday morning to the ground whitened. Happened yesterday and the day before without it being in the forecast. I am not infected with this Debbie Downer illness. I blame Ji for infecting our threads. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thanksgiving Day: Sunny, with a high near 37. Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I will be using all my heating oil savings on a winter vacation on the cape this december, sunny beaches, bbq.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I think I'll wake up Thursday morning to the ground whitened. Happened yesterday and the day before without it being in the forecast. I am not infected with this Debbie Downer illness. I blame Ji for infecting our threads. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thanksgiving Day: Sunny, with a high near 37. Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 26. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 45. There is also a 30% chance that weather wiz' seductive allure has claimed his virginity, but I'll take the over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I think I'll wake up Thursday morning to the ground whitened. Good luck with that. Your last hope is the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 At least it looks like the EPO is beginning to weaken and loosen up areas upstream....but that is one intense torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 People in eastern MA, don't worry, the sea breeze will keep temps on the cooler side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Gets much warmer we may have a tornado outbreak in December. I don't like pattern slip. We've all been down those roads in years gone by where the pattern is changing in 3-4 weeks for months while our weenies roast. I guess on one hand for Phil and I....I'd rather have a January/Feb/Mar winter than a Nov/Dec/early Jan winter anyway. Long as it comes I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 At least it looks like the EPO is beginning to weaken and loosen up areas upstream....but that is one intense torch good to see the cold pattern showing up on the op and ensemble runs. again, AMOUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 At least it looks like the EPO is beginning to weaken and loosen up areas upstream....but that is one intense torch The only two negative implications of having this pattern right now are: 1) Once it flips, the first couple of storms maybe harsher than usual on the cp, as the ocean maybe more pervasive than it normally would be in latter Decemeber\early January.....but ssts are very malleable and that consequence should be fleeting. A cold pattern will remedy that quicker than many think. 2) The tacit fear of god that the pattern will hardly abate for the majority of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Gets much warmer we may have a tornado outbreak in December. I don't like pattern slip. We've all been down those roads in years gone by where the pattern is changing in 3-4 weeks for months while our weenies roast. I guess on one hand for Phil and I....I'd rather have a January/Feb/Mar winter than a Nov/Dec/early Jan winter anyway. Long as it comes I'm happy yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Laugh now. Doubt the same folks will. Be laughing come this time next month. Better to face reality now than late Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 yep. Yea, one Dec 1996 redux is enough, this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Good luck with that. Your last hope is the DGEX. Meh, I've seen too many Winters to cancel one on 11/19. All the grousing and hand wringing is foolish. LR forecasting is about as accurate as guessing. Have fun wallowing in self pity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Laugh now. Doubt the same folks will. Be laughing come this time next month. Better to face reality now than late Dec You change your tune as often as the wind changes direction. When the snow comes you'll crow "I told you so." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 yep. I guess the good news for you and I is the ocean is down to 50 already and we get to enjoy some nice late fall weather the next few weeks. I believe it was 1999 or maybe 98 that I was out on a boat on 12/7 in 70 degree calm weather. Would love to see that again this year, then follow it with a cold snowy pattern around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 You change your tune as often as the wind changes direction. When the snow comes you'll crow "I told you so." Like his sig says..."endless winter". Glad his mouth and keyboard are in accord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Laugh now. Doubt the same folks will. Be laughing come this time next month. Better to face reality now than late Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Laugh now. Doubt the same folks will. Be laughing come this time next month. Better to face reality now than late Dec there are still some folks out there suggesting a turn to cold much sooner so you can hope some of those ideas pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Like his sig says..."endless winter". Glad his mouth and keyboard are in accord. What a goof ball. I like all these cancel Winter type posts he is making. They will be great fun to trot out when we're under endless Winter Storm Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Meh, I've seen too many Winters to cancel one on 11/19. All the grousing and hand wringing is foolish. LR forecasting is about as accurate as guessing. Have fun wallowing in self pity. Who canceled winter? I thought we were discussing the chances of you seeing snow on the ground Thanksgiving morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Well, euro ensembles try to hint(I use this real loosely) at an Aleutian ridge at the end of the range. They had it yesterday too. Verbatim, it isn't bad at the end of the run with the 540 line finally south of us, but we know how the ends of the ensemble runs can rush things. We still have that split flow look coming from the vortex near AK. We have ridging in western Canada which tries to force cooler air south, and a trough in the sw which is acting to pump up heights in the east. Vortex is slowly dying, but it is still there. We need that Aleutian ridge to build and either push it west or just weaken it. Of course we can still sneak a couple of storms in. Nobody is saying, no snow until mid month. However, and this is JMHO, I would keep expectations in check until mid month or so...maybe even a few days after. If it changes in the first week, then consider it an early Holiday gift. It might be something like a yo-yo type transition which perhaps offers a chance at something in the 1st week, but I'm talking more overall sustainable stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 From Noyes http://www.facebook....sew_VHzdkJoePWg Storm could easily be rain. As it is now, seems like rain with maybe the chance of a brief flip to snow on the backside for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Ginx, you cant be serious, time to jump ship, late November into early December is an absolute blowtorch. I hope things change for the holidays, classic model delays going on now. Surely you can see the evolution and change the GFS ENS advertises the first week of DEC.This does not look TORCHY to me in comparison, rather normal. Love the HP building into AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Who canceled winter? I thought we were discussing the chances of you seeing snow on the ground Thanksgiving morning? I'm sorry for implying YOU were cancelling Winter. It's more the tone of some in here. HubbJi for instance. Droopy dog posts about how December will torch despite it being 10 days out before the first of the month. It's laughable that people get so invested over LR model forcasts. As far as I can tell they are almost worthless. Anyway, we'll see about T-day. I won't be surprised to see the ground whitened. It happened twice this week without much support. We can revisit this in a few days. Regardless, I remain bullish for a good season including a good December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Surely you can see the evolution and change the GFS ENS advertises the first week of DEC.This does not look TORCHY to me in comparison, rather normal. Love the HP building into AK. LL has his torch glasses on. Save your breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Well, euro ensembles try to hint(I use this real loosely) at an Aleutian ridge at the end of the range. They had it yesterday too. Verbatim, it isn't bad at the end of the run with the 540 line finally south of us, but we know how the ends of the ensemble runs can rush things. We still have that split flow look coming from the vortex near AK. We have ridging in western Canada which tries to force cooler air south, and a trough in the sw which is acting to pump up heights in the east. Vortex is slowly dying, but it is still there. We need that Aleutian ridge to build and either push it west or just weaken it. Of course we can still sneak a couple of storms in. Nobody is saying, no snow until mid month. However, and this is JMHO, I would keep expectations in check until mid month or so...maybe even a few days after. If it changes in the first week, then consider it an early Holiday gift. It might be something like a yo-yo type transition which perhaps offers a chance at something in the 1st week, but I'm talking more overall sustainable stuff. Unfortunately it's still really ugly. I'd like to see that trough over Alaska/GOA completely gone and replaced by ridging. Given it's a 360 hour forecast you know there must be a large amount of members with a rather sizable vortex continuing. I know we've discussed this before so we're sort of beating a dead horse but the +EPO is killing us. We can maybe modulate the PNA enough to teleconnect to some east coast troughing but the Nina pattern is going to keep pumping up the SE Ridge. Unfortunately the end of the ensembles bring us to Dec 4... and at that point the models still aren't showing much of a change at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Even ripping and reading GFS MOS (my favorite thing to do) gives you a pretty torch of a week this coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Good luck with that. Your last hope is the DGEX. There's a chance he could have a feather dusting on the ground T-day. It will be torched away in about 2 hours on Friday, but a white T-day would be cool if we could actually get a flip to snow at the end. Not overly optimistic though. The whole pattern stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Winter doesn't start for over a month and we've already had a HECS. I'm off like Kev's prom dress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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