dryslot Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Its not often you get the 582dm height line to camp out over the region for 2 days at the end of November. Pretty impressive in its own right. Thats something to look forward to .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 12/10 it starts to change. 12/20 the change is complete. Pity because Kevin is swinging on 12/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 12/10 it starts to change. 12/20 the change is complete. Pity because Kevin is swinging on 12/19. I could see that time line. Hopefully we can get some good sustained cold and multiple chances for the holidays. Even though I know its not going to show anything different, looking at the GFS ensembles rolling out now, I want to pick the computer up and throw it out the window seeing that pattern for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I could see that time line. Hopefully we can get some good sustained cold and multiple chances for the holidays. Even though I know its not going to show anything different, looking at the GFS ensembles rolling out now, I want to pick the computer up and throw it out the window seeing that pattern for early December. Do the end of the euro ensembles(hr 384) show the decaying of the alaska vortex still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Do the end of the euro ensembles(hr 384) show the decaying of the alaska vortex still? Who cares.. Too much popularity surrounding that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Who cares.. Too much popularity surrounding that feature. I'm curious to see what it shows that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Wow...just saw 00z. What a change from 18z! And next weekend...maybe 65-70 degrees? Lollies to 71-72? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Kinda overshadowed in the talk of the death vortex, PNA, and the NAO is the pretty ridiculous +AO being forecasted over the next week or two. That tends to keep the circumpolar vortex very strong with lower than normal heights over the NP and higher than normal heights in the mid-latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Euro even more amped and phased with the two streams. Not going to get a whole lot of frozen in that setup....even pretty far NNE has a solid warm surge in the mid-levels. Pretty nice run for Vim toot though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Euro even more amped and phased with the two streams. Not going to get a whole lot of frozen in that setup....even pretty far NNE has a solid warm surge in the mid-levels. Pretty nice run for Vim toot though, lol. Yeah...by hour 114 temps are surging into the 50s throughout SNE. Maybe the south coast bumps 60. Arguably a bit humid! EDIT: Big snowmaker over interior Maine. Ski areas will like it. Too bad it melts shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Yikes. At this rate we could be in "exhaust inhalation" mode through Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I could see that time line. Hopefully we can get some good sustained cold and multiple chances for the holidays. Even though I know its not going to show anything different, looking at the GFS ensembles rolling out now, I want to pick the computer up and throw it out the window seeing that pattern for early December. Your way too optimistic....winter is over till around Christmas most likely. Maybe jan will see a few cold days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die. I more pessimistic than Wes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 But first there is the possible minor overunning event on Monday night/early Tuesday. That could be a few inches of snow for someone and then a stripe of FZRA/PL below that. If that happens it is the second accumulating snow here in four days time. I don't need big snowstorms yet in November...just get a pattern change in here by middle December so we have snow for the holidays and I'm fine with it. I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die. I more pessimistic than Wes right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Meh...only expecting rain...but will it be a cold rain? That's the burning questiin LOL Yeah...by hour 114 temps are surging into the 50s throughout SNE. Maybe the south coast bumps 60. Arguably a bit humid! EDIT: Big snowmaker over interior Maine. Ski areas will like it. Too bad it melts shortly thereafter. Maybe I should have kept my place in Bethel. But first there is the possible minor overunning event on Monday night/early Tuesday. That could be a few inches of snow for someone and then a stripe of FZRA/PL below that. If that happens it is the second accumulating snow here in four days time. I don't need big snowstorms yet in November...just get a pattern change in here by middle December so we have snow for the holidays and I'm fine with it. Totally agree, Rick. Of course, more is always welcome. 28.3/21 off a low of 27.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Is there a geological feature that causes this warm up east of the ORH hills and west of that Nashua(?)-Newton area and a few points south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Couple things...Euro is wrong on the storm this week..It's either south and suppressed or we get some snow from it ala GFS and it's ensembles.. We'll see Euro move in that direction today or tonite. 2) We are in deep deep trouble for all of December. What was looking promising on the long range ensembles is not anymore 3) I'm close to losing it again after seeing all the negativity from Will and Scooter last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Couple things...Euro is wrong on the storm this week..It's either south and suppressed or we get some snow from it ala GFS and it's ensembles.. We'll see Euro move in that direction today or tonite. 2) We are in deep deep trouble for all of December. What was looking promising on the long range ensembles is not anymore 3) I'm close to losing it again after seeing all the negativity from Will and Scooter last nite 1. How is it wrong 2. At least we have a low sun angle in our favor. ) Seriously, though, I think it's way too soon to throw in the towel on the next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 1. How is it wrong 2. At least we have a low sun angle in our favor. ) Seriously, though, I think it's way too soon to throw in the towel on the next month. From Noyes http://www.facebook....sew_VHzdkJoePWg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die. I more pessimistic than Wes right now. Trust me, November and December 1994 was way worse, its going to be a virtual impossibility to beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 From Noyes http://www.facebook....sew_VHzdkJoePWg Is this in response to my question of "why"? I'm not seeing the connection. I think this summary sentence from his FB post wraps things up nicely So, for now, I'm not overly concerned about this storm impact potential in New England, but am certainly aware of the potential for it to impact us if these factors come together. That being said, I like at least seeing flakes in the forecast, fwiw this far out. I know you don't put any stock in these though. MAZ002-192100- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 416 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2011 .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. COLD. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. .THANKSGIVING DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Whiffle ball all the way to Xmas. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Warmer than 2006 is ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Whiffle ball all the way to Xmas. AWT. Noone was thinking that.You guys all thought after Dec 10th..Now you're extending it to the New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Whiffle ball all the way to Xmas. AWT. Warmer than 2006 is ominous If that is how it plays out, at least we have a banter thread. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Noone was thinking that.You guys all thought after Dec 10th..Now you're extending it to the New Year Well, at least you had your snow piles and the Pumkin Thumper. Cherish those memories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 If that is how it plays out, at least we have a banter thread. ) Temp talk and mowing ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Well, at least you had your snow piles and the Pumkin Thumper. Cherish those memories All those cold and snowy winter forecasts..This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Temp talk and mowing ftw Christmas caroling in shorts and wifebeaters ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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