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Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond


ORH_wxman

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12/10 it starts to change. 12/20 the change is complete. Pity because Kevin is swinging on 12/19.

I could see that time line. Hopefully we can get some good sustained cold and multiple chances for the holidays. Even though I know its not going to show anything different, looking at the GFS ensembles rolling out now, I want to pick the computer up and throw it out the window seeing that pattern for early December.

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I could see that time line. Hopefully we can get some good sustained cold and multiple chances for the holidays. Even though I know its not going to show anything different, looking at the GFS ensembles rolling out now, I want to pick the computer up and throw it out the window seeing that pattern for early December.

Do the end of the euro ensembles(hr 384) show the decaying of the alaska vortex still?

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Euro even more amped and phased with the two streams. Not going to get a whole lot of frozen in that setup....even pretty far NNE has a solid warm surge in the mid-levels. Pretty nice run for Vim toot though, lol.

Yeah...by hour 114 temps are surging into the 50s throughout SNE. Maybe the south coast bumps 60. Arguably a bit humid!

EDIT: Big snowmaker over interior Maine. Ski areas will like it. Too bad it melts shortly thereafter.

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I could see that time line. Hopefully we can get some good sustained cold and multiple chances for the holidays. Even though I know its not going to show anything different, looking at the GFS ensembles rolling out now, I want to pick the computer up and throw it out the window seeing that pattern for early December.

Your way too optimistic....winter is over till around Christmas most likely. Maybe jan will see a few cold days

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I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die.

I more pessimistic than Wes right now.

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But first there is the possible minor overunning event on Monday night/early Tuesday. That could be a few inches of snow for someone and then a stripe of FZRA/PL below that. If that happens it is the second accumulating snow here in four days time.

I don't need big snowstorms yet in November...just get a pattern change in here by middle December so we have snow for the holidays and I'm fine with it.

I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die.

I more pessimistic than Wes right now.

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Meh...only expecting rain...but will it be a cold rain? That's the burning questiin

LOL

Yeah...by hour 114 temps are surging into the 50s throughout SNE. Maybe the south coast bumps 60. Arguably a bit humid!

EDIT: Big snowmaker over interior Maine. Ski areas will like it. Too bad it melts shortly thereafter.

Maybe I should have kept my place in Bethel.

But first there is the possible minor overunning event on Monday night/early Tuesday. That could be a few inches of snow for someone and then a stripe of FZRA/PL below that. If that happens it is the second accumulating snow here in four days time.

I don't need big snowstorms yet in November...just get a pattern change in here by middle December so we have snow for the holidays and I'm fine with it.

Totally agree, Rick. Of course, more is always welcome.

28.3/21 off a low of 27.4

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Couple things...Euro is wrong on the storm this week..It's either south and suppressed or we get some snow from it ala GFS and it's ensembles.. We'll see Euro move in that direction today or tonite.

2) We are in deep deep trouble for all of December. What was looking promising on the long range ensembles is not anymore

3) I'm close to losing it again after seeing all the negativity from Will and Scooter last nite

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Couple things...Euro is wrong on the storm this week..It's either south and suppressed or we get some snow from it ala GFS and it's ensembles.. We'll see Euro move in that direction today or tonite.

2) We are in deep deep trouble for all of December. What was looking promising on the long range ensembles is not anymore

3) I'm close to losing it again after seeing all the negativity from Will and Scooter last nite

1. How is it wrong

2. At least we have a low sun angle in our favor. ) Seriously, though, I think it's way too soon to throw in the towel on the next month.

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I'm close to cancelling winter. The models and Decembers outlook are a completed disaster. We are locked into the worst long wave pattern I have ever seen since following data. There is nothing encouraging in the data unless you hate life and want to die.

I more pessimistic than Wes right now.

Trust me, November and December 1994 was way worse, its going to be a virtual impossibility to beat that.

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Is this in response to my question of "why"? I'm not seeing the connection. I think this summary sentence from his FB post wraps things up nicely

So, for now, I'm not overly concerned about this storm impact potential in New England, but am certainly aware of the potential for it to impact us if these factors come together.

That being said, I like at least seeing flakes in the forecast, fwiw this far out. I know you don't put any stock in these though.

MAZ002-192100-

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

416 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2011

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND

SNOW. COLD. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE

OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF

SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

.THANKSGIVING DAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD. HIGHS

IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

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