CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Link?, I thought of this when Tip mentioned conveyors You stole my thunder - I'd have to look for it, but the diagram that I used in school had the WCB curving back to the NW to overlay the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 On cue - gotta love COMET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 No not really, just that we torch heading into the last week of Novie. The euro ensembles have a gradient look to them at the end of the run, but the colder air doesn't really want to make it much farther past the border of Canada. If it's a gradient look as we head into the Dec 1-10 timeframe that means we'd at least have normal cold..and if it's below normal up in Canada that's the time of year the low level cold can really ooze down and press..and would be good..esp the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 If it's a gradient look as we head into the Dec 1-10 timeframe that means we'd at least have normal cold..and if it's below normal up in Canada that's the time of year the low level cold can really ooze down and press..and would be good..esp the interior There may not be much in the way of below normal temps up there come the beginning of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I think its hilarious that the DGEX shows a monster storm every run lol It did nail 10/30 however... Almost argues ICE for Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 On cue - gotta love COMET! Yeah that site is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Link?, I thought of this when Tip mentioned conveyors the piece of the warm conveyor belt that bends back toward the low is associated with the trowal and decreasing atmospheric stability...resulting in slantwise convection or upright convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 There may not be much in the way of below normal temps up there come the beginning of Dec. Still some pretty good flow from the Pacific into the NW Territories, but at least lower heights try to knife into Hudson Bay. I would think if the pattern shown was pushed ahead by a month, it probably would work out well in New England. The AK troughs still lingers though with no -NAO really in site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 the piece of the warm conveyor belt that bends back toward the low is associated with the trowal and decreasing atmospheric stability...resulting in slantwise convection or upright convection. Yep and it makes sense that part of the WCB would be involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 old? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 At this time, Taunton says to expect mainly rain from pre-Thanksgiving storm: PUT IT ALL TOGETHER...EXPECT A COLD WET AND WINDY DAY. AGEOSTROPIC FLOW LEADING THE SURFACE LOW SHOWS SOME COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CAN/T RULE OUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN HIGHLAND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH LEADING THE STORM. COLDER AIR THEN DRAINS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THIS WOULD MEAN A CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE RAIN IS TAPERING OFF. AGAIN...ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 At this time, Taunton says to expect mainly rain from pre-Thanksgiving storm: PUT IT ALL TOGETHER...EXPECT A COLD WET AND WINDY DAY. AGEOSTROPIC FLOW LEADING THE SURFACE LOW SHOWS SOME COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CAN/T RULE OUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IN HIGHLAND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH LEADING THE STORM. COLDER AIR THEN DRAINS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...THIS WOULD MEAN A CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE RAIN IS TAPERING OFF. AGAIN...ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. I'm not sure why amounts would even be discussed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Lord I like this guy http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Well I see we have the lethal combo of the 18z GFS and the 18z DGEX giving us snow...Euro ensembles actually werent bad either, a shade warm but nice track. My guess is mostly rain at this point but even most guidance that is warm shows a flip to snow at the end. So its something to still watch at least. Euro ensembles are ugly entering December. Not much cold in Canada. The only solace is that we get a slight bit of ridging in the PNA region and that at least cuts off the torching flow from the PAC...however, the continued low heights in the EPO region do not dump fresh cold into Canada...what we sort of see is the cryosphere regenerating cold in central and NE Canada as they finally stop advecting warm air from the west....if we had a -NAO, some of this might be pushed down to our area, but the NAO looks putrid so it all stays up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Yeah Ginx that's a forecast I think all of us want to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Lord I like this guy http://www.nsf.gov/n...er/predicts.jsp Has he put out a graphical forecast for this winter yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Well I see we have the lethal combo of the 18z GFS and the 18z DGEX giving us snow...Euro ensembles actually werent bad either, a shade warm but nice track. My guess is mostly rain at this point but even most guidance that is warm shows a flip to snow at the end. So its something to still watch at least. Euro ensembles are ugly entering December. Not much cold in Canada. The only solace is that we get a slight bit of ridging in the PNA region and that at least cuts off the torching flow from the PAC...however, the continued low heights in the EPO region do not dump fresh cold into Canada...what we sort of see is the cryosphere regenerating cold in central and NE Canada as they finally stop advecting warm air from the west....if we had a -NAO, some of this might be pushed down to our area, but the NAO looks putrid so it all stays up there. Yeah that's why it can be misleading when using indices like the PNA. Sure it's positive, but we are only as good as the airmass in Canada and while not horrible, it isn't great either. The NAO is gone and with the trough in the sw pumping up heights...we are at the mercy of any ridging in the NW Territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Gonna be pretty cold and raw Monday/Tuesday I think ..maybe some FZRA enters the mix for the first time. That will be kind of fun for a change. ALB point forecast for here mentioning various P types.... Of course the idea of putting a specific % on it and breaking it down into three hour increments at day 3.5 is ridiculous.... and how about Monday ...partly sunny except for that one hour from 3 to 4 when it may rain. LOL Monday: A chance of rain, mainly between 3pm and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night: A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 10pm, then a chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 10pm and 1am, then a chance of snow and freezing rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Tuesday Night: A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 30% Yeah that's why it can be misleading when using indices like the PNA. Sure it's positive, but we are only as good as the airmass in Canada and while not horrible, it isn't great either. The NAO is gone and with the trough in the sw pumping up heights...we are at the mercy of any ridging in the NW Territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Yeah that's why it can be misleading when using indices like the PNA. Sure it's positive, but we are only as good as the airmass in Canada and while not horrible, it isn't great either. The NAO is gone and with the trough in the sw pumping up heights...we are at the mercy of any ridging in the NW Territories. Its interesting that you can start to see the cold regenerating around Hudson Bay and northeastward when they finally stop advecting PAC taint, just the long nights help cool it as time goes on if you shut off the WAA....but we can't get that stuff down to us without a -NAO...the stuff in W Canada is still kind of ugly, though not as horrific as before. Still seems like we will be waiting past the first week of December at minimum for a big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Has he put out a graphical forecast for this winter yet? This was Harvey's interview with him, not great.. Closer that was last years forecast. I like his method http://www.thebostonchannel.com/weather/29807608/detail.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 The inexorable march has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 This was Harvey's interview with him, not great.. Closer that was last years forecast. I like his method http://www.theboston...608/detail.html I guess we can make an assumption that it would look somewhat similar for this winter, based on the remarkable recovery so far this autumn in NH snowfall, but I'd rather not speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Its interesting that you can start to see the cold regenerating around Hudson Bay and northeastward when they finally stop advecting PAC taint, just the long nights help cool it as time goes on if you shut off the WAA....but we can't get that stuff down to us without a -NAO...the stuff in W Canada is still kind of ugly, though not as horrific as before. Still seems like we will be waiting past the first week of December at minimum for a big change. Yeah the one time we really need that -NAO arm to really assert itself and push the cold south, it's not there. I actually like to see those cold anomalies on this side of Hudson Bay, instead of over Calgary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I guess we can make an assumption that it would look somewhat similar for this winter, based on the remarkable recovery so far this autumn in NH snowfall, but I'd rather not speculate. Record set today for NH snow cover, but his emphasis and theory is Oct Snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Record set today for NH snow cover, but his emphasis and theory is Oct Snow cover. Yeah I know that, so then if we use this October for his model, we are fooked...But the recovery in late October and our current state is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I saw 25 squirrels going into a meeting of overeaters anonymous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I saw 25 squirrels going into a meeting of overeaters anonymous. Fear not...this winter will be good...especially from you points n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 Tonight's GFS looks like another pretty warm air mass in place for the Wednesday threat. The 00z NAM was quite a bit colder at 84h. GFS looks like a rain event for virtually all of New England save the extreme northern Mts near the Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Tonight's GFS looks like another pretty warm air mass in place for the Wednesday threat. The 00z NAM was quite a bit colder at 84h. GFS looks like a rain event for virtually all of New England save the extreme northern Mts near the Canadian border. Yeah that isn't a shock..lol. It's a little early to claim victory...but as usual, EC and ensembles > GFS and ensembles at d5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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