dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Pretty ugly mike at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Pretty ugly mike at the moment Maybe the 18z GFS will enliven us in a little bit. Even if only for the few seconds after the run before Will/Scott tell us the GFS is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Maybe the 18z GFS will enliven us in a little bit. Even if only for the few seconds after the run before Will/Scott tell us the GFS is wrong. kinda inflate the weenie scenario then have it whacked off loretta bobbitt style with the sword of reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Maybe the 18z GFS will enliven us in a little bit. Even if only for the few seconds after the run before Will/Scott tell us the GFS is wrong. I know it's not good to always use one model, but the euro ensembles are pretty darn good around d6 or so. As good as it can be, for being 6 days out anyways. Will might agree with me on this, but when I see the euro and euro ensemble agree on something 6 days out, and the GFS isn't agreeing...I tend to favor the EC. It doesn't always work, and you have to look at all the guidance, but I think overall...this is true. Models sometimes do "trend" towards one another so that needs to be taken into consideration, but usually that's something to really think about inside 96 hrs or so. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I know it's not good to always use one model, but the euro ensembles are pretty darn good around d6 or so. As good as it can be, for being 6 days out anyways. Will might agree with me on this, but when I see the euro and euro ensemble agree on something 6 days out, and the GFS isn't agreeing...I tend to favor the EC. It doesn't always work, and you have to look at all the guidance, but I think overall...this is true. Models sometimes do "trend" towards one another so that needs to be taken into consideration, but usually that's something to really think about inside 96 hrs or so. JMHO. Its really hard to go against the king and its ensembles unless its proving wrong consistently and that has not been the case, More often then not, The other models do usually end up caving to the Euro so you have to give it quite a bit of respect especially like you said, Inside 6 days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Its really hard to go against the king and its ensembles unless its proving wrong consistently and that has not been the case, More often then not, The other models do usually end up caving to the Euro so you have to give it quite a bit of respect especially like you said, Inside 6 days.. Yeah but it's not like the euro is gonna be set in stone for the next 5 days.. a shift south 50-100 miles will do wonders down here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yeah but it's not like the euro is gonna be set in stone for the next 5 days.. a shift south 50-100 miles will do wonders down here.. Sure would...you'd go from 38F and rain to 29F and strato Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Sure would...you'd go from 38F and rain to 29F and strato Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Sure would...you'd go from 38F and rain to 29F and strato Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yeah but it's not like the euro is gonna be set in stone for the next 5 days.. a shift south 50-100 miles will do wonders down here.. Nothings ever in stone even inside the last 24-36 hrs, The october snow bomb would be a prime example where all the models were trending SE with the storm system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yup Don't take the toaster out just yet...lots of winter to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Never going to snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 However, right now the king and its ensembles don't completely agree on the track. Euro ensembles are still warm, but further south than the op. low goes off of Cape may and heads ENE, yet thicknesses are 546 along I-90. Could mean 2 things. 1) indicative of garbage airmass. 2) might be warmer ensembles members like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Nothings ever in stone even inside the last 24-36 hrs, The october snow bomb would be a prime example where all the models were trending SE with the storm system A very valid point. Another example would be the big icestorm a couple years back. Lots of fine-tuning took place in the final hours before that one. Of course, they can go the other way like the December WSW for double-digits wound up with a complete whiff--not even giving a flake for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yeah but it's not like the euro is gonna be set in stone for the next 5 days.. a shift south 50-100 miles will do wonders down here.. I'm not referring to the exact solution, I mean it may give us an idea of where things may head. Nothing is set in stone 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 A very valid point. Another example would be the big icestorm a couple years back. Lots of fine-tuning took place in the final hours before that one. Of course, they can go the other way like the December WSW for double-digits wound up with a complete whiff--not even giving a flake for many of us. Yeah, Nothing is off the table at this point, It could end up whiffing south if it ends up being a strung out piece of crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 However, right now the king and its ensembles don't completely agree on the track. Euro ensembles are still warm, but further south than the op. low goes off of Cape may and heads ENE, yet thicknesses are 546 along I-90. Could mean 2 things. 1) indicative of garbage airmass. 2) might be warmer ensembles members like the op. 3) Icestorm for ALL interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yeah, Nothing is off the table at this point, It could end up whiffing south if it ends up being a strung out piece of crap... That 'whiff storm" was my favorite becuase it didn't just 'underperform' it utter implosion. I remember we were taking my daughter to "bright nights" in Springfield and the radio was giving their forecast saying a warning with 5--10" blah, blah, blah. I looked at the radar before bed having thrown in the towel, but it wasn't until the next morning that I learned EVERYBODY whiffed. All we could do was laugh. I don't even remember what happened with it. 36.3/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Just a brutal run of the Euro todau until day 10..Hopefully ens are also cooler like they are for storm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 3) Icestorm for ALL interior No big deal if that were to happen--you don't have any trees left. I had to make the 20-mile drive to FedEx in Hatfield the other day. It was the first time down 91 in a couple of weeks. The damage from the Oct storm was much more visible from the highway now that the leaves were down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 3) Icestorm for ALL interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Just a brutal run of the Euro todau until day 10..Hopefully ens are also cooler like they are for storm track Well sometimes in SWFE, ensembles will always be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Just a brutal run of the Euro todau until day 10..Hopefully ens are also cooler like they are for storm track and that is how you know you are fooked...when the cold and snow is always 10 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Look ay that cold just lurking on the NAM at 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 However, right now the king and its ensembles don't completely agree on the track. Euro ensembles are still warm, but further south than the op. low goes off of Cape may and heads ENE, yet thicknesses are 546 along I-90. Could mean 2 things. 1) indicative of garbage airmass. 2) might be warmer ensembles members like the op. I still believe given what we are seeing we'd see a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Don't you have to have established cold air in the region to get an icestorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Never going to snow again Dead kitten count: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Dead kitten count: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Surprise there has only been 2.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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