OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm thinking a more amped up solution is more likely than strung out nothing. The NAO rising points to a somewhat signifcant storm in the east..more likely to be rain than snow, obviously. Also, we've seen a lot of cases where these shortwaves coming out of the southwest pack a big punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 They suck at hockey too We probably shouldn't talk about Canadians though...they may file a police report against us and prompt an investigation. Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm thinking a more amped up solution is more likely than strung out nothing. The NAO rising points to a somewhat signifcant storm in the east..more likely to be rain than snow, obviously. Also, we've seen a lot of cases where these shortwaves coming out of the southwest pack a big punch. and we've had big qpf events regularly for the last 3-4 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Low looks quite amped on the Euro in the ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Low tracks right over the MA/CT border east ugly run rain for most other then the greens and whites with a flip to snow on the backside with the low passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Next. For SNE within 50 miles of the coast, it is generally too early on 11/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Be able to roast the turkey out on the sidewalk after the storm on weds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 btw...which weenie is programming the weather underground Euro snow maps? I doubt that is coming from the European Center.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Be able to roast the turkey out on the sidewalk after the storm on weds.. Not per the Euro. You'd be lucky to get past 42 or so and me maybe 48-50. Thicknesses on both GFS/Euro for the post storm "torch" are pretty low vs expected with those H5 heights arguing for above normal but not absurdly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Be able to roast the turkey out on the sidewalk after the storm on weds.. Lets not get overly dramatic now. 12z EURO looks pretty similar to the 00z run. Hopefully the mountains of NNE can pull off a solid accumulating snow. Maybe they'll be able to open for at least part of the holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Not per the Euro. You'd be lucky to get past 42 or so and me maybe 48-50. Thicknesses on both GFS/Euro for the post storm "torch" are pretty low vs expected with those H5 heights arguing for above normal but not absurdly so. Yeah, Still on the + side though, Not what we really want to see heading into Dec but it is what it is with this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Lets not get overly dramatic now. 12z EURO looks pretty similar to the 00z run. Hopefully the mountains of NNE can pull off a solid accumulating snow. Maybe they'll be able to open for at least part of the holiday weekend. Nothing to get dramatic about, lol, Its still a ways out there so it will change plenty more times between now and weds, The higher elevations will stand the best chance of seeing snow out of this with backside snows maybe to the coast as the low departs, But that's verbatium this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Nothing to get dramatic about, lol, Its still a ways out there so it will change plenty more times between now and weds, The higher elevations will stand the best chance of seeing snow out of this with backside snows maybe to the coast as the low departs, But that's verbatium this run Yeah...850s are awfully warm (on this run verbatim) too in far NNE. So it could be tough even there. I'm not too invested, seeing that it is 11/17 right now. Later in the run, the Midwest really starts to torch though, even into parts of Manitoba/Alberta. It looks like a springtime pattern right there. 60's all the way into Nebraska. I think it gets worse before it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Be able to roast the turkey out on the sidewalk after the storm on weds.. that heat ridge in the Prairies is insane that should nicely melt off what little snowpack they have managed to accumulate so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Rainy storm on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Next. For SNE within 50 miles of the coast, it is generally too early on 11/23. Yeah you're right, not much will change in 5 days.. let's just write it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 There was a winter in the late 1980s/early 1990s that was an absolute brutal torch up until mid-December. I think we hit 70s in Lowell. Was that '92 and Tips famous diatribe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 How many times have we seen a swfe trend colder as we lead up to the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 There was a winter in the late 1980s/early 1990s that was an absolute brutal torch up until mid-December. I think we hit 70s in Lowell. Was that '92 and Tips famous diatribe? I believe December '98 had temps in the 70s too. I was in third grade, if memory serves me correct. EDIT: Yes. Record high temp for December is 76 degrees set in 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Rainy storm on the euro. I could picture something that's like 35F and rain for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yeah...850s are awfully warm (on this run verbatim) too in far NNE. So it could be tough even there. I'm not too invested, seeing that it is 11/17 right now. Later in the run, the Midwest really starts to torch though, even into parts of Manitoba/Alberta. It looks like a springtime pattern right there. 60's all the way into Nebraska. I think it gets worse before it gets better. It does, We are going to need to build the cold back into canada going forward if we can get this pattern to flip towards mid december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I believe December '98 had temps in the 70s too. I was in third grade, if memory serves me correct. I think I was in 5th grade. Yeah...99-00 was my 6th grade year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I could picture something that's like 35F and rain for most of us Ray's favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 that heat ridge in the Prairies is insane that should nicely melt off what little snowpack they have managed to accumulate so far Looks like you have a good chance at some frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Ray's favorite If that does happen I'd think it would be a race to see which goes in the oven first, the turkey or us weenies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 How many times have we seen a swfe trend colder as we lead up to the event.. True, But the cold air is pretty marginal right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 True, But the cold air is pretty marginal right now What makes this interesting, to me at least is there is cold air present, it's just not over us...it's not too far away though. All we really need is a phase just early enough and a trough deepening just soon enough to where the storm does not really ride the cost but stays just far enough off-shore to allow the cold air to dump in...obviously I think even at this stage we can say coastal areas won't see much snow, if any but inland...it's definitely possible. Considering this all may be dependent on the phasing and how the trough develops I don't think anything should be ruled out...those details often aren't really known until you're inside of 72 hours...possibly even less. Considering we aren't seeing any models really with inside runners I think that's a major positive at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 What makes this interesting, to me at least is there is cold air present, it's just not over us...it's not too far away though. All we really need is a phase just early enough and a trough deepening just soon enough to where the storm does not really ride the cost but stays just far enough off-shore to allow the cold air to dump in...obviously I think even at this stage we can say coastal areas won't see much snow, if any but inland...it's definitely possible. Considering this all may be dependent on the phasing and how the trough develops I don't think anything should be ruled out...those details often aren't really known until you're inside of 72 hours...possibly even less. Considering we aren't seeing any models really with inside runners I think that's a major positive at this point. Thats true, But we also have no blocking mechanisim either which still gives this a chance to be further north if it phases to early.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Thats true, But we also have no blocking mechanisim either which still gives this a chance to be further north if it phases to early.. Certainly agree on that but there aren't really any indications that this will phase too early. Blocking is kind of overrated I think...it's great to have but it's not necessarily needed. At this stage I honestly don't care how the thermal profiles are being depicted. I look at it like this... We have the cold air source to our north, there are two areas of high pressure being modeled...one to our NW one to our NE...the system look to pass just SE of SNE going by that I see opportunity for a cold solution and a solution for snow. If we were seeing a track through New England then I would not be thinking this. At this stage, being this far out I'll just look at the overall setup and not pay attention to the mesoscale factors and temps...those will change every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Low tracks right over the MA/CT border east ugly run rain for most other then the greens and whites with a flip to snow on the backside with the low passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.