toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Looked like maybe a 3-5" deal or so. Thanks. Wasn't expecting that but ill take it FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yes the course of lease regret re that system this next week is to expect cold rain until otherwise proven with more certitude. Even joking about 6-12" lollies or whatever in those post say is not really funny actually because it does have a way of "tinting" the expectation somewhat; it's called bargaining in psychological parlance, to use humor to dodge the disappointment. If that were not enough... yeah, the GFS grid is not going to resolve thermodynamics on intra-SNE scales on a D7 panel... A polar high transiting N with an open wave running through the critical 1 to 1.5 degree rule-of-thumb latitudes S of LI after Nov 1 any year, does not preclude the possibility that the GFS is too warm. Remember, there is hygroscopic concerns that the GFS is DEFINITELY not going to see the feed-back to cold (perhaps someone with more formal model physics knowledge can speak to that). Evaporational isn't the whole thing either.. That track looks pretty ideal for frontogenic mid levels, and meso banding ...where in goodness creation that evolves, would punch a hole through any marginatlity that is going on at the time. There's a lot there. Looks like a NJ model low in this run. Euro might be interesting... duh. Nice phasing on the 00z - too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 People should be expecting nothing but rain from this storm at this point. Shame on them if they expect otherwise unless you are in the mts of NNE. That is a classic, sig worthy line. lol I will never expect, but always hope and dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Best chance over Tolland. Every morning I wake at school and look at the majestic mount tolland from my window and bask in its heavenly glory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yes the course of lease regret re that system this next week is to expect cold rain until otherwise proven with more certitude. Even joking about 6-12" lollies or whatever in those post say is not really funny actually because it does have a way of "tinting" the expectation somewhat; it's called bargaining in psychological parlance, to use humor to dodge the disappointment. If that were not enough... yeah, the GFS grid is not going to resolve thermodynamics on intra-SNE scales on a D7 panel... A polar high transiting N with an open wave running through the critical 1 to 1.5 degree rule-of-thumb latitudes S of LI after Nov 1 any year, does not preclude the possibility that the GFS is too warm. Remember, there is hygroscopic concerns that the GFS is DEFINITELY not going to see the feed-back to cold (perhaps someone with more formal model physics knowledge can speak to that). Evaporational isn't the whole thing either.. That track looks pretty ideal for frontogenic mid levels, and meso banding ...where in goodness creation that evolves, would punch a hole through any marginatlity that is going on at the time. There's a lot there. Looks like a NJ model low in this run. Euro might be interesting... duh. Nice phasing on the 00z - too much? It's a battle next week, because the ridge temporarily builds out west (colder air would try to come south over the northeast), but that s/w trough ejects out of the sw (fights the cold trying to come se by raising heights over the east ahead of it). Pretty cool actually. Hopefully the ridge out west wins. No surprise, the GEFS really south on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I am expecting an all out blizzard once i run the euro out of my basement this afternoon, Whatever we get is just a bonus this time of year being its still november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 The Euro is going to start showing some insane solution that none of us will buy at first, but it will keep showing this solution...the Ukie will have something similar and then the GFS will catch on then the NAM. That's my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That is a really good track...I bet the actual verification would be a little colder for sure, if it took it. CT_Blizz gives the new optimistic Scooter his seal of approval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 People should be expecting nothing but rain from this storm at this point. Shame on them if they expect otherwise unless you are in the mts of NNE. There would still be work to do in SNE, but certainly nobody should expect anything like that since we our discussing a low prob event beyond 120hrs out. What will said. If people are seriously expecting a snowstorm in C/SNE, out of this, you are seriously delusional. My preference on this modeled system would be for the northern stream to come in faster than currently, pushing the baroclinic zone further south and than have the follow up southern stream energy remain weak and scoot off south of us. Any phasing of these pieces of energy is problematic for us in C/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Its a thread the needle storm no two ways around it with the marginal cold air around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 CT_Blizz gives the new optimistic Scooter his seal of approval. Don't start Eric. It still may cue a toaster bath for him, but I was thinking areas near Will and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 What will said. If people are seriously expecting a snowstorm in C/SNE, out of this, you are seriously delusional. My preference on this modeled system would be for the northern stream to come in faster than currently, pushing the baroclinic zone further south and than have the follow up southern stream energy remain weak and scoot off south of us. Any phasing of these pieces of energy is problematic for us in C/SNE. Even if it's mostly rain, the prospect of a flip to tail end snow isn't a pipe dream, but as of now..this is not a SNE snow deal. Doesn't mean it couldn't be, but just keep prospects down and families of people like snowNH can still expect them to attend Holiday festivities, not swinging from the rafters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Even if it's mostly rain, the prospect of a flip to tail end snow isn't a pipe dream, but as of now..this is not a SNE snow deal. Doesn't mean it couldn't be, but just keep prospects down and families of people like snowNH can still expect them to attend Holiday festivities, not swinging from the rafters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Well one thing arguing for a winter event, I'm working Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yep. A lot like last night in that the setup isn't there with the cold air in what could otherwise be a favorable outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 At least that air mass in SE Canada is pretty cold...colder than anything probably for the 2 weeks after that as its leftover from the transient -EPO we are getting right now. If we have a 1025-1030 high N of us, that could actually be an icing signal for the interior if 850s stay too warm. Its a bit early for ice, but they have happened in Nov before. We want to see the high closer to the 1028-1030 range. An icestorm is locked this winter..Only thing we haven't had this year. This will probably be it next week..to finish off the rest of the trees,,and leave everyone without power for the holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 An icestorm is locked this winter..Only thing we haven't had this year. This will probably be it next week..to finish off the rest of the trees,,and leave everyone without power for the holiday you would be in heaven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 No worries.. Margusity says heavy heavy snow for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 you would be in heaven Turkey in the deep fryer instead of the oven.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 No worries.. Margusity says heavy heavy snow for all Bahaha why doesn't he just cover the entire U.S and say " snow is possible" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 No worries.. Margusity says heavy heavy snow for all What a putz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 are the snowfall maps on wunderground for the euro 3 hour snow or 6 hour snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Bahaha why doesn't he just cover the entire U.S and say " snow is possible" I looked at that graphic too quickly and because it says "long range winter forecast" I thought that was his prediction for the whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 are the snowfall maps on wunderground for the euro 3 hour snow or 6 hour snow? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 What a putz Well, he isn't saying heavy snow, just a possibility...but yeah, why put out such a map at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Not that I care but his maps look like blizz24 put them together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Canadian just has the first weak wave strung out to the south and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Canadian just has the first weak wave strung out to the south and that's it. They should stick to hockey, We are going to see multiple solutions i think depending on the strength or lack there of of the vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 They should stick to hockey, We are going to see multiple solutions i think depending on the strength or lack there of of the vort They suck at hockey too We probably shouldn't talk about Canadians though...they may file a police report against us and prompt an investigation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 **** everything if my flight is canceled weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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