weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 GFS brings a low east of ACY, but garbage airmass ahead of it allows 850 temps to stay above 0C despite a favorable track. Maybe GFS is too warm, but this shows you why we need a -EPO. There are two 1024 highs being depicted on the GFS...one to our NW and one to our NE and if that happens I would think we would see something that is a bit colder than what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Torcharific 12z GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Miller B on the gfs it seems for weds.. Hybrid. Southern/Northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Looks like a flip to snow at the end down here. Yeah, Quite warm out ahead of the storm verbatium but looks to flip a lot of you over on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Hybrid. Southern/Northern stream. yeah more of a hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 There are two 1024 highs being depicted on the GFS...one to our NW and one to our NE and if that happens I would think we would see something that is a bit colder than what the GFS is showing. That could be, but it stitll goes to show you how even with favorable indices, if the airmass is garbage, your result will be garbage. 1024 highs don't really validate the temperatures in the area. If the euro had that track, it would probably be a bit cooler, but again..the airmass ahead of it isn't that great..especially coastal areas and south of the Pike. Hopefully the antecedent airmass would be better than depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Haven't looked below 850 yet...sites I use for that aren't out that far yet but just looking at the 4-panel charts verbatim I would think this system would give a decent thump of snow on the backside for many areas, especially eastern New England...nice closed lows at 850/700mb with some great lift and still plenty of leftover moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Pretty tight gradient with that cold air to the north and warm air to the south as they storm tracks on the boundry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 That could be, but it stitll goes to show you how even with favorable indices, if the airmass is garbage, your result will be garbage. 1024 highs don't really validate the temperatures in the area. If the euro had that track, it would probably be a bit cooler, but again..the airmass ahead of it isn't that great..especially coastal areas and south of the Pike. Hopefully the antecedent airmass would be better than depicted. At least that air mass in SE Canada is pretty cold...colder than anything probably for the 2 weeks after that as its leftover from the transient -EPO we are getting right now. If we have a 1025-1030 high N of us, that could actually be an icing signal for the interior if 850s stay too warm. Its a bit early for ice, but they have happened in Nov before. We want to see the high closer to the 1028-1030 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That could be, but it stitll goes to show you how even with favorable indices, if the airmass is garbage, your result will be garbage. 1024 highs don't really validate the temperatures in the area. If the euro had that track, it would probably be a bit cooler, but again..the airmass ahead of it isn't that great..especially coastal areas and south of the Pike. Hopefully the antecedent airmass would be better than depicted. Yeah the airmass ahead of the storm is certainly garbage. While it is garbage over us just to our north there is a source of cold air so if we can get this storm to develop quicker and stay SE of us that could help us out by really drawing in the cold air much faster. Perhaps teleconnections played a role in this but remember leading up to the Oct. storm we saw something rather similar being depicted...this storm right now at this stage is modeled stronger but as it does intensify the cold air really drains in...for the Oct storm at this stage we saw a somewhat strung out storm which had a decent track but wasn't drawing in any colder air then as we got closer everything just fell in place. At this stage I'm just not glad we're seeing a cutter type scenario, as long as we can discount that possibility I think the table is still open for a snow event for most. Sure things don't look too great or perfect at this stage but it's still only Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 At least that air mass in SE Canada is pretty cold...colder than anything probably for the 2 weeks after that as its leftover from the transient -EPO we are getting right now. If we have a 1025-1030 high N of us, that could actually be an icing signal for the interior if 850s stay too warm. Its a bit early for ice, but they have happened in Nov before. We want to see the high closer to the 1028-1030 range. Agreed. if we can also keep the wind direction more northerly that should help as well...have the winds coming from the cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 At least that air mass in SE Canada is pretty cold...colder than anything probably for the 2 weeks after that as its leftover from the transient -EPO we are getting right now. If we have a 1025-1030 high N of us, that could actually be an icing signal for the interior if 850s stay too warm. Its a bit early for ice, but they have happened in Nov before. We want to see the high closer to the 1028-1030 range. I thought about the icing too. Probably the favorable areas from near you up into sw NH. SE Canada is cold, but it just can't come south given the setup and flow being rather zonal. Maybe the low level cold could ooze in from the ne. I think the euro would show a colder solution if it depicted the GFS solution verbatim, but probably still toasty south of I-90. Of course we'll see run changes from now until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I wonder if we could also get some help from some dynamic cooling...looks like this could be quite a dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 We had everything else this year why not have an icestorm to top it off Thawed turkeys ftl At least that air mass in SE Canada is pretty cold...colder than anything probably for the 2 weeks after that as its leftover from the transient -EPO we are getting right now. If we have a 1025-1030 high N of us, that could actually be an icing signal for the interior if 850s stay too warm. Its a bit early for ice, but they have happened in Nov before. We want to see the high closer to the 1028-1030 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 I thought about the icing too. Probably the favorable areas from near you up into sw NH. SE Canada is cold, but it just can't come south given the setup and flow being rather zonal. Maybe the low level cold could ooze in from the ne. I think the euro would show a colder solution if it depicted the GFS solution verbatim, but probably still toasty south of I-90. Of course we'll see run changes from now until then. Yeah the Euro looked like it pressed the cold air south further before the storm (gets us to like -5C), but it tracked further west so we ended up as a lot of rain anyway. The overall setup really stinks, but we might get lucky. The only thing that makes icing seem plausible is its cold in S Canada and while the mid-level flow might remain more zonal, the sfc/BL flow will try and drain more from the N. Still, climo says ice is probably a long shot, but it might be worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That is a really good track...I bet the actual verification would be a little colder for sure, if it took it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yeah the Euro looked like it pressed the cold air south further before the storm (gets us to like -5C), but it tracked further west so we ended up as a lot of rain anyway. The overall setup really stinks, but we might get lucky. The only thing that makes icing seem plausible is its cold in S Canada and while the mid-level flow might remain more zonal, the sfc/BL flow will try and drain more from the N. Still, climo says ice is probably a long shot, but it might be worth watching. Hopefully it slows the north trend, but pretty much anything is up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That's how winter should be. Cold for 3-4 days so we can get lots of snow, then 60's+ for a good week to get rid of it all, then 3-4 days of cold to get more snow, then 60's+ to get rid of it...just keep repeating this cycle until we get to May then severe wx season begins. Thats great if you dont snowmobile or ski.... CT gets actual severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yeah the Euro looked like it pressed the cold air south further before the storm (gets us to like -5C), but it tracked further west so we ended up as a lot of rain anyway. The overall setup really stinks, but we might get lucky. The only thing that makes icing seem plausible is its cold in S Canada and while the mid-level flow might remain more zonal, the sfc/BL flow will try and drain more from the N. Still, climo says ice is probably a long shot, but it might be worth watching. Hey climo bet against the Oct. snowstorm Could you imagine though if we ended up with an ice storm and it even affected interior CT...it would be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That is a really good track...I bet the actual verification would be a little colder for sure, if it took it. Don't feed the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Thats great if you dont snowmobile or ski.... CT gets actual severe weather? Yes we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That is a really good track...I bet the actual verification would be a little colder for sure, if it took it. Can you tell me how the 00z EURO looked for Toronto wrt next week's storm. Thnx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That is a really good track...I bet the actual verification would be a little colder for sure, if it took it. yeah it's interesting...ideally i think you'd like to see some lower heights across NE Canada but then phase that northern stream trough sooner to get the low to bomb earlier. It's such a fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Don't feed the weenies. People should be expecting nothing but rain from this storm at this point. Shame on them if they expect otherwise unless you are in the mts of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 People should be expecting nothing but rain from this storm at this point. Shame on them if they expect otherwise unless you are in the mts of NNE. I'm expecting 6-12'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm expecting 6-12'' Lollies to 36? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I know I asked this last year and was given the answer, but I've forgotten: what was the set-up which gave us the post Christmas arctic outbreak in December 1993? Was it a positive PNA? I mean a high of 15 below farenheit without the wind in Ottawa is incredible. Could we potentially see a flip which gives Toronto a high of 0F and Ottawa a high -15F sometime in December? Will is a master at using the reanalysis tools at NCEP - I'm sure if you asked him he could give you a primer on loading those images. That said ... 1993 was a huge anomalously positive NAO, so massive that the vortex and lower geopotential height anomaly actually encompassed both the D/ Str region and the NE Conus. Polar air was constently delivered, and then waves would enter the vortex from the OV and dump 4-8 inchers before the confluence meated them out... Not everyone was so fortunate but a lot of sites were over 80" by the end of that season. If nothing else it is a prime example of not hanging one's hat on the mode its self, but needing to consider the bigger picture. Rare as it were.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Don't feed the weenies. There would still be work to do in SNE, but certainly nobody should expect anything like that since we our discussing a low prob event beyond 120hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Lollies to 36? Best chance over Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Can you tell me how the 00z EURO looked for Toronto wrt next week's storm. Thnx! Looked like maybe a 3-5" deal or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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