OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 GFS ensemble pattern looks a whole lot better after about 300 hours. There is still a trough over AK...but it has shifted west lowering heights in the Bearing Sea and the Aleutians...causing higher heights on the US West Coast and lower than normal heights over East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm not sure of a site that compares them. I don't even know of any site that does the EPO in graphical form our forecast...just NAO/PNA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 We've had a very weak wave over the last two weeks which isn't doing squat for the pattern. Having this wave become stronger and move around the horn at least tries to shuffle the pattern around, especially after it moves out of the p3-5 area. I certainly don't want to see it fall into the circle of death, meaning the area corresponding to a very weak amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Phase 5 is still warm for us but it starts promoting some higher heights toward AK using the December composite...he was asking about the vortex up there, not our temp anomalies. Phase 6 isn't that warm in December, it is in Jan/Feb. You always hae to be careful with this stuff though. As we have said in the past, the MJO only has an influence of any real consequence if the wave is fairly robust. If it is weak, it is probably not doing much forcing. That was going to be my next question was the strength and its effects? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 http://www.esrl.noaa...casts/teleconn/ Thanks Ginxer-roo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 If in 4 or 5 days we're still talking about changes at 15 days looking better I'll start getting concerned. Sometimes these patterns hold on despite what the models try to show. 12/15ish hopefully real winter starts to set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Phase 5 is still warm for us but it starts promoting some higher heights toward AK using the December composite...he was asking about the vortex up there, not our temp anomalies. Phase 6 isn't that warm in December, it is in Jan/Feb. You always hae to be careful with this stuff though. As we have said in the past, the MJO only has an influence of any real consequence if the wave is fairly robust. If it is weak, it is probably not doing much forcing. Ah, I misunderstood what he was asking there. The MJO signal right now is quite weak and has been fairly weak since about late October...signal was much more strong during mid-October. I don't know where to find the Euro ENS for MJO forecasts but the GFS really doesn't have the MJO signal being all that strong too going down the road, in fact it seems like the consensus among the ENS is for the signal to get even weaker...which does make sense in a way b/c we're continuing to see cooling occurring across the tropical Pacific and those cold anomalies are really spreading in the western region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/ Thanks, Steve! I had forgotten about this. Bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Ah, I misunderstood what he was asking there. The MJO signal right now is quite weak and has been fairly weak since about late October...signal was much more strong during mid-October. I don't know where to find the Euro ENS for MJO forecasts but the GFS really doesn't have the MJO signal being all that strong too going down the road, in fact it seems like the consensus among the ENS is for the signal to get even weaker...which does make sense in a way b/c we're continuing to see cooling occurring across the tropical Pacific and those cold anomalies are really spreading in the western region. GEFS bring the MJO into the COD...Euro ens strengthen it through phases 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 GEFS bring the MJO into the COD...Euro ens strengthen it through phases 3-5. Wow...that's a pretty big spread there. That would kind of suck if it did strengthen through phases 3-5, however, if that continued from phases 6-8 that wouldn't really be a bad thing. Going to be crazy to see how much of a signal we will really see from the MJO going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Interior and elevated NNE snowstorm IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This pattern has been persistent since about Nov. 1st. Imo, generally patterns last 4 to 6 weeks before they become unstable and shift into a different regime. Dec. 1st to the 15th would make sense in that paradigm because this has lasted since the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Interior and elevated NNE snowstorm IMHO If i was to bet, Thats where i would have my money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 If i was to bet, Thats where i would have my money Too early to bet now, but it's good to have the euro showing a strong storm.. rain or snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 This pattern has been persistent since about Nov. 1st. Imo, generally patterns last 4 to 6 weeks before they become unstable and shift into a different regime. Dec. 1st to the 15th would make sense in that paradigm because this has lasted since the October storm. That makes sense and seems to be the timeframe everyone has discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Too early to bet now, but it's good to have the euro showing a strong storm.. rain or snow Nah, Thats what gambling is about, Taking a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Huge euro run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Huge euro run today Eh, no run is huge beyond 120hrs, even if it showed a Cat III hitting GON or a blizzard of '78 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Huge euro run today If I had a nickle for every time this was said I'd have my own island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Thanks, Steve! I had forgotten about this. Bookmarked. Interesting differences, hopefully NCEP is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Eh, no run is huge beyond 120hrs, even if it showed a Cat III hitting GON or a blizzard of '78 redux. Not the biggest run of our life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Eh, no run is huge beyond 120hrs, even if it showed a Cat III hitting GON or a blizzard of '78 redux. WRT to the boringness of the pattern.. its all relative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Interesting differences, hopefully NCEP is right Pretty remarkable differences in the PNA forecast there. If NCEP is correct there and we see a +PNA along with a weakening +EPO and -NAO that should spell big time potential I would think. Keep the pattern active with sources for cold air to work in and we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Pretty remarkable differences in the PNA forecast there. If NCEP is correct there and we see a +PNA along with a weakening +EPO and -NAO that should spell big time potential I would think. Keep the pattern active with sources for cold air to work in and we're good. FWIW, the euro guys bring the PNA to near neutral, but then it drops towards the end of the period as troughing develops in the sw. NAO is a non-factor imo. Transient NAO ridge is "bootleg" as Gibbs would say. Biggest factor is up by AK where we have ridging in the GOA that tries to drop the EPO, but it still has a lot of work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 GFS brings a low east of ACY, but garbage airmass ahead of it allows 850 temps to stay above 0C despite a favorable track. Maybe GFS is too warm, but this shows you why we need a -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 FWIW, the euro guys bring the PNA to near neutral, but then it drops towards the end of the period as troughing develops in the sw. NAO is a non-factor imo. Transient NAO ridge is "bootleg" as Gibbs would say. Biggest factor is up by AK where we have ridging in the GOA that tries to drop the EPO, but it still has a lot of work to do. As long as we're not seeing a raging +EPO I think we should be fine. We really don't need to see a -EPO unless you want to see some brutal cold which is insignificant here. If I remember correctly I think even the GFS ensembles drop the PNA negative, however, only slightly negative so the PNA signal won't be as strong either...taking this verbatim. I still think going through the winter the NAO signal will end up being much more strong than any of the other signals and that will ultimately lead to us having an excellent winter here in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Miller B on the gfs it seems for weds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 12z GFS has a really nice track for SNE but almost no cold air to work with so its mostly rain until the last few hours. Mostly an indictment of the God-awful setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Miller B on the gfs it seems for weds.. Looks like a flip to snow at the end down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 12z GFS has a really nice track for SNE but almost no cold air to work with so its mostly rain until the last few hours. Mostly an indictment of the God-awful setup. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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