David Reimer Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 new gfs increases the llj a tad more This is a hodograph for Dallas at 6 PM on Monday from the 18Z GFS. If this comes close to verifying, my concern level is going to triple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 After showing an empty map for several runs yesterday, the SREF's significant tornado ingredients parameter is increasing for Monday. It looks like we have a small '20' contour present on the 03Z graphic. While this convinces me we're going to have a busy severe weather day in my neck of the woods (or in this case, the flat open plains ) on Monday, it also makes me concerned the tornado potential may be increasing as well. I'm definitely going to be glued to the 0Z model runs as they come in later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 19, 2011 Author Share Posted November 19, 2011 yea those hodos are really starting to look nice. if higher instability can be realized, i will def be more impressed. it is one hell of a drive from IL for me and i am on major time constraints thanks to work. i have a close eye on the models. i am still wondering how long discrete supercells would last. storm interference could be an issue. but like last week, new storms could keep forming south of the merging ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm thinking Forbes clearly made a blunder issuing the 5, as now he has decreased his TOR:CON values while the models are increasing the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I'm thinking Forbes clearly made a blunder issuing the 5, as now he has decreased his TOR:CON values while the models are increasing the potential. Did the same thing on 11/7...it's all a ploy for publicity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Did the same thing on 11/7...it's all a ploy for publicity... Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 This is a duplicate of the discussion I just posted on the Texas Storm Chasers website and is written with the general public in mind. My thoughts that I posted in this morning’s discussion for Sunday generally remain the same, but a few things are beginning to change for Monday that I wanted to talk briefly about. Please note this is only an update and is meant to supplement this morning’s discussion. I’m planning to have an entirely new discussion posted early tomorrow morning.View my morning discussion here. 18Z GFS: 850 Millibar height/wind at 6 PM Monday This graphic comes from the 18Z GFS, which is still rolling in the door as I type this around 4:30 PM. This graphic shows the 850 millibar output for 6 PM on Monday. If you read my discussion from this morning, you’ll recall that I mentioned that models were increasing the strength of the low level jet each supplemental run. I mentioned that the low level jet was pretty weak, and that the tornado potential would likely remain limited due to the small hodograph sizes, or turning with height. This run of the GFS has increased the low level jet’s strength. Instead of the 30-35 knot low level jet that was being indicated on last night’s North American Model (NAM) for 6 PM on Monday, the new 18Z GFS is showing a 45 to 50 knot low level jet south of the south, veering to the southwest the further west of Fort Worth you go. This is a dramatic increase in the speed of the low level jet and needs to be monitored very closely for consistency. 0Z NAM: Simulated hodograph for Decatur, TX at 6 PM Sunday 18Z GFS: Simulated hodograph for Dallas, TX at 6 PM Monday The first graphic shows the hodograph I used as an example on this morning’s blog post for 6 PM Sunday. I explained how that the hodograph size looked to be limited due to weak lower level shear and that this would likely help limit the tornado threat. This still looks to be the case on Sunday, however there are indications that this may not be the case on Monday. This second graphic shows the simulated hodograph from the 18Z GFS for Dallas at 6 PM on Monday. Do you see how much larger the hodograph is on the second image verses the first? If this type of hodograph was present on Monday and we had adiquite amounts of instability, I could definitely see portions of North Texas having a substantial tornado threat. HOWEVER, this is just one model run and it takes a lot more then wind shear to create the threat of tornadoes. I just wanted to point out that there is the possibility that we may be dealing with more then I originally thought on Monday. I’d recommend that everyone stay tuned, as Monday is already looking to be a busy severe weather day. Whether or not we deal with a substantial tornado threat is to be determined. I’m going to be posting a new discussion later tonight that will talk in depth about the possibilities for both Sunday and Monday. Stay tuned! - David Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Any deepening/underestimation of the lower level cyclogenesis would be a serious problem with the progged solid moisture inflow off of the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Did the same thing on 11/7...it's all a ploy for publicity... Well damn. I never watch TWC, but I know Dr. Forbes knows his stuff and never would have expected that; guess I had a lapse of cynicism WRT the media there. Will keep that in mind from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 This is an email that was sent out to the local skywarn groups in North Texas this afternoon... From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth Date: Saturday 19 Nov 2011 13:49 CST A cold front and an upper level storm system will affect North Texas Sunday and Monday and result in the potential for severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and night, and again on Monday afternoon and night. Thunderstorms Sunday and Monday will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds, with isolated tornadoes not out of the question Sunday. The tornado potential may be higher on Monday as both supercell thunderstorms and bow-echo squall lines are possible. Some areas, especially north of Interstate 20, may experience sufficient rainfall to cause runoff and localized flooding through Monday. Overview...A cold front currently extends from Iowa into the Oklahoma Panhandle. This front will move into North Texas during the day Sunday before becoming stationary across our area Sunday night and Monday. An upper level disturbance currently over the eastern Pacific Ocean will move onshore tonight and approach North Texas Monday. Moist air from the Gulf of Mexico continues to surge northward and will help contribute to moderate instability Sunday and Monday. Details and Timing...Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible as early as tonight across North Texas, with small hail possible from the stronger storms. On Sunday, scattered thunderstorms are expected near and just north of the cold front which should be located generally from near Sherman to Denton to Eastland by late afternoon. The front will sink slowly southward Sunday night before becoming nearly stationary Monday. As the upper level storm system moves across Texas on Monday the most widespread and intense thunderstorms are expected. Confidence...confidence is moderate on severe thunderstorms Sunday, and moderate to high on Monday. The primary uncertainty is on the exact locations of greatest severe weather risk, which will depend on the cold front location and the strength of the upper level storm system as it moves across our area. Bottom Line...Monitor our latest forecasts, discussions and outlooks for the latest information on the cold front location since it will impact the severe weather threats and timing. We will keep our web site and Facebook page updated with the latest information. Useful NWS web sites: North Texas Hazard Planner NWS Fort Worth Facebook Page Graphical Severe Weather Warnings Page (when warnings are in effect; joint venture with NCTCOG) As always, please give us a call for additional information or support, and Happy Thanksgiving to all! Bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Did the same thing on 11/7...it's all a ploy for publicity... Doubt that quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Doubt that quite a bit. TORCONs for 11/7 (per Dr. Forbes' FB wall https://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#!/twcdrforbes): Issued Friday 11/4: 5 No posts 11/5 Issued Sunday 11/6: 4 Issued Monday 11/7:5 TORCONs for 11/21 (again per his FB wall): Issued Yesterday: 5 Issued Today: 4 I'm not positive I understand what it is you doubt. If it's what I said about this being for publicity, then please explain how the TORCON value could be so high so many days out with such forecasting uncertainties and then decrease as we get closer and output begins to look more favorable for an event. I don't doubt Dr. Forbes' knowledge or forecasting expertise, but it seems a tad bit dubious, like throwing out bait to grab people's attention and then keeping them hooked with each passing update. It seems that a day 4 TORCON of 5 is pretty bullish, no matter what time of year, but especially in an area that, though not unheard of, is not the most climatologically-favored area for such an event this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Convective forecasting is hard. My first response to a series of altered forecasts would certainly not be "it's for publicity." That's a pretty crass and cynical charge against a widely respected meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Why even pay attention to the "TORCON"? Who cares. He has still yet to state what goes into it and one would think knowledgeable forecasters on here wouldn't even look at it. I for one, can't stand it. On good looking setups its going to be high, on bad ones, low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Convective forecasting is hard. My first response to a series of altered forecasts would certainly not be "it's for publicity." That's a pretty crass and cynical charge against a widely respected meteorologist. Exactly, which is why putting a 50% chance of tornadoes within 50mi of a point for a day 4 forecast for a setup that, though it looks favorable for severe weather, has some big question marks to it seems dubious. Maybe it is indeed the cynic in me that somewhat questions the ability to do that. Also, my original post wasn't so much about Dr. Forbes personally but more about TWC as a whole. I never have questioned, nor would I ever question, whether or not he deserves the respect he has. He is one of the most productive and admirable severe weather researchers in history. I'm not positive, but something tells me that TORCON goes well beyond him. It's been a huge attraction for TWC on the whole since it was debuted. The public doesn't read SPC outlooks or look at SPC probability forecasts on the whole...they do watch for and read about the TORCON. And for that, they frequent TWC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Exactly, which is why putting a 50% chance of tornadoes within 50mi of a point for a day 4 forecast for a setup that, though it looks favorable for severe weather, has some big question marks to it seems dubious. Maybe it is indeed the cynic in me that somewhat questions the ability to do that. Also, my original post wasn't so much about Dr. Forbes personally but more about TWC as a whole. I never have questioned, nor would I ever question, whether or not he deserves the respect he has. He is one of the most productive and admirable severe weather researchers in history. I'm not positive, but something tells me that TORCON goes well beyond him. It's been a huge attraction for TWC on the whole since it was debuted. The public doesn't read SPC outlooks or look at SPC probability forecasts on the whole...they do watch for and read about the TORCON. And for that, they frequent TWC... Agreed. During the NWA meeting last month in Birmingham, a public forum was held that surveyed multiple victims of the April 27th Super Outbreak. One of the questions was related to how they, as the individual, gauged a potential severe weather threat. More then a few folks responded with the TORCON value from The Weather Channel and how it was the first '10' in the history of the algorithm. Ignoring the question if it has any scientific basis to it, the 'TORCON' algorithm has become a primary indicator of a potential severe weather threat to the general public. I see folks mentioning it on my facebook page all the time. Yesterday when Forbes issued a value of 5 for North Texas, I had multiple people come to the Texas Storm Chasers page and ask what we were expecting for Monday. In terms of Marketing, The Weather Channel has gold mine on their hands. Do I use the TORCON value in explaining my forecasts to the general public? Hell no. My opinion of The Weather Channel revolves around their newsdesk employees along with off air relationships with their on-air talent. I will say that after reviewing their coverage from April 27, May 22, and May 24th I was impressed. If they keep doing the kind of coverage they did those three days, my respect for them as a responsible source of breaking weather news will continue to slowly return. As of now, I don't refer anyone to The Weather Channel for weather information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 18z NAM sounding for Fort Worth @ 6pm cst Monday evening just as impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Simulated sounding from the 0Z NAM at 6 PM on Monday for Spinks Airport in Southern Fort Worth (on the Tarrant/Johnson county line). Speaking for residents in North Texas, we have a big problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 Simulated sounding from the 0Z NAM at 6 PM on Monday for Spinks Airport in Southern Fort Worth (on the Tarrant/Johnson county line). Speaking for residents in North Texas, we have a big problem. that is a problem indeed. wow. that is something you would see in early spring. that hodo is incredible. based on that, looks like nocturnal tornadoes could be a real threat. that would even support the possibility of strong tornadoes. excellent directional shear. the LLJ really ramps up that time of night. hope everyone plays close attention to the weather. we dont need any more tornado deaths this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 that is a problem indeed. wow. that is something you would see in early spring. that hodo is incredible. based on that, looks like nocturnal tornadoes could be a real threat. that would even support the possibility of strong tornadoes. excellent directional shear. the LLJ really ramps up that time of night. hope everyone plays close attention to the weather. we dont need any more tornado deaths this year... I'm not sure if I buy the nocturnal tornado threat. While the hodographs are definitely impressive, we seem to have a fairly steady consensus that we're going to have a strong QLCS in progress by 6 PM. That would help reduce the tornado threat a bit, although QLCS tornadoes would be quite possible along with very strong straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 20, 2011 Author Share Posted November 20, 2011 I'm not sure if I buy the nocturnal tornado threat. While the hodographs are definitely impressive, we seem to have a fairly steady consensus that we're going to have a strong QLCS in progress by 6 PM. That would help reduce the tornado threat a bit, although QLCS tornadoes would be quite possible along with very strong straight line winds. good point. i forget to mention storm mode in my previous post. with the main trough axis moving over this area around 0z, the forcing will most likely cause storms to line up along or just ahead of the cold front. a QLCS is a good bet. but you gotta watch those tail end charlie's. with an environment as shown on the sounding, any semi discrete storm could quickly go tornadic along with embedded supercells in the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 0z GFS sounding for Fort Worth @ 6pm cst Monday showing increase in helicity and a longer, circular hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 0z GFS sounding for Fort Worth @ 6pm cst Monday showing increase in helicity and a longer, circular hodograph. Yea that's an absolute beauty in November lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Probably a rather strongly worded Day 2 about to come out. Day 1: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2011 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TX NEWD INTO ERN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD AND DEAMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT REACHES SRN NV/SRN CA BY EARLY MON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW FROM SOUTH OF AZ/NM NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...OH VALLEY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT...THE DENSITY OF A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEAR A JBR-NW OF LIT-ACT-SJT LINE AT 21/00Z AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...NRN TX NEWD INTO ERN AR... THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT...DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING AND NEUTRAL 500 MB HEIGHT CHANGES. HOWEVER...A STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN A NARROW AREA FROM NERN TX NEWD INTO CENTRAL AR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 80F AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MLCAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG. ALONG WITH THIS INSTABILITY...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY FROM 21-03Z. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET... AND CONSEQUENT ISENTROPIC/FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY LOCATED ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS...SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. ..IMY/LEITMAN.. 11/20/201 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Day 2, rather large 30% area, I would expect that a sig-hatched area may eventually be added if the upward trends in the models continue. Good discussion from Edwards. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1200 AM CST SUN NOV 20 2011 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS W TX TO WRN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... AS OF 20/05Z...MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATED MID-UPPER LOW ABOUT 125 NM WNW CAPE MENDOCINO...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWWD ACROSS PAC. THIS POSITION IS MORE NLY THAN PROGGED BY MOST MODEL RUNS DURING PREVIOUS DAYS...AS WILL BE INLAND TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH DAY-2 PERIOD. STG VORTICITY LOBE WILL MOVE S OF CURRENT SYSTEM-RELATIVE LOW POSITION...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY-TILTED...HIGH-AMPLITUDE...OPEN-WAVE TROUGH FROM ERN NV TO NRN GULF OF CA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD. TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD TO CENTRAL/SRN NM...FAR W TX AND NRN CHIHUAHUA BY 22/00Z...BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED FROM ERN KS TO W-CENTRAL TX BY 22/12Z. STG SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING SEWD OVER ERN MO...S-CENTRAL OK AND SWRN PANHANDLE OF TX WILL DECELERATE THROUGH DAY-1 PERIOD...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY BY 21/12Z OVER SRN KY...WRN TN...CENTRAL AR...AND NERN THROUGH W-CENTRAL TX. OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/NAM AND ALL SREF MEMBERS RETREAT BOUNDARY SLOWLY NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX AND SE OK DURING 21/18Z-22/00Z TIME FRAME. FRONTAL-WAVE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER W-CENTRAL TO N-CENTRAL TX AROUND 22/00Z...THEN MOVE NEWD AND STRENGTHEN...REACHING SERN MO BY END OF PERIOD. BEHIND THIS LOW...COLD FRONT SHOULD SURGE SEWD ACROSS W TX...REACHING CENTRAL AR...NE TX...AND CENTRAL/SW TX BY 22/12Z. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...SFC DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM FRONTAL INTERSECTION OVER W-CENTRAL TX OR ERN PERMIAN BASIN REGION SWD INTO NRN COAHUILA. ...SRN PLAINS TO MID-SOUTH REGION... EARLY-PERIOD TSTMS ALONG AND N OF FRONT...FROM RED RIVER REGION ENEWD ACROSS MID-SOUTH...MAY POST ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC HAIL IN THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS TN. GREATER SVR THREAT IS FCST TO DEVELOP FROM AROUND MIDDAY ONWARD...NEAR FRONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND INTENSIFYING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PRECEDE MID-UPPER TROUGH IMPINGE ON PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/BUOYANT AIR MASS ON BOTH SIDES OF SFC FRONT. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONT DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AMIDST STG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT. SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUITE STG EVEN AS IT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW...BENEATH ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME THAT WILL PRECEDE SWRN CONUS TROUGH. AS SUCH...SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS WILL DISAPPEAR WITHIN VERY SHORT DISTANCE N OF FRONT...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT. SFC DEW POINTS MID-60S F ALREADY HAVE REACHED PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NE TX. MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG AND S OF FRONT BY EARLY DAY-2...SUPPORTING 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN MOIST SECTOR. ALONG AND S OF FRONT...CORRIDOR OF MULTI-MODAL SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND THREAT FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. LARGEST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE FCST ALONG FRONT...WITH 0-1 KM SRH POTENTIALLY REACHING 200-250 J/KG. ACTIVITY N OF FRONT WILL POSE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...GENERALLY DECREASING IN PROBABILITY NWD. 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND ELEVATED MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED IN THAT REGIME. FARTHER S...LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT DURING LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...POTENTIALLY BUILDING SWD INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL/E TX WITH WIND/HAIL THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 11/20/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 As of now, I don't refer anyone to The Weather Channel for weather information. Me either. I work at my school and everyone knows im a weather geek and if someone tells me "oh the weather channel or weather.com said blah blah blah" I just shake my head and tell them not to use them for forecasts/info. And after looking at the 0z runs, I'd target somewhere near ABI to start. Get on em early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 At the risk of stating the obvious, I'd say Monday hinges a lot on the northward progress of the retreating boundary. The airmass that just invaded central OK this evening is awfully cold (dropped from ~70 F to ~35 F on the W side of the metro since late afternoon), and should probably clear I-20 to a couple counties E of DFW by tomorrow evening. If we see a good last-minute push during the day Monday akin to November 7, with the warm sector reclaiming places like Gainesville and Duncan, this setup looks relatively impressive for tornadoes. If the boundary bisects the Metroplex at showtime, though, I'm not sure I'd say that. Tough call. The bias with recent events is seemingly toward keeping baroclinic zones in the Southern Plains suppressed too far south, but on the other hand, the NAM has trended decidedly southward with its position tomorrow -- and the RUC backs it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The HRRR has been down for two days now. I suppose the last time it went down was November 7th, so who knows. Maybe it's a good luck charm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Exactly, which is why putting a 50% chance of tornadoes within 50mi of a point for a day 4 forecast for a setup that, though it looks favorable for severe weather, has some big question marks to it seems dubious. Maybe it is indeed the cynic in me that somewhat questions the ability to do that. Also, my original post wasn't so much about Dr. Forbes personally but more about TWC as a whole. I never have questioned, nor would I ever question, whether or not he deserves the respect he has. He is one of the most productive and admirable severe weather researchers in history. I'm not positive, but something tells me that TORCON goes well beyond him. It's been a huge attraction for TWC on the whole since it was debuted. The public doesn't read SPC outlooks or look at SPC probability forecasts on the whole...they do watch for and read about the TORCON. And for that, they frequent TWC... TWC is much more popular than SPC and Forbes makes what's perceived as an aggressive forecast, so it's a ploy for attention? That's quite a jump in logic. I thought you had something else since you presented it like it was factual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Why are we still arguing about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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