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November Disco/Obs II


Isopycnic

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Yep, full sunshine at 10AM here also. It's going to be a warm record high day today here for sure! I'm a tad concerned about a few storms firing up ahead of the front. If we could squeak some of those in right around sunset it could get nasty here as well. Alabama is definitely going to do better with the storm timing and peak heating.

just as I posted this a nice thick cloud deck moved on in... :arrowhead:

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At 150 is that heavy snow verbatim on the GFS for most of southwest NC? Again I really am not very good with these just to my untrained eye it looks good. Almost looks like CLT could be getting in on the action.

I think it's all going to depend on the layer between 850 and the surface I guess...

I wonder if it's cold enough between 850 and the surface?

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Boundary layer would be way to warm, me thinks

If that upper level low was to move in verbatium as the 12z says we would have cold enough air aloft for snow to make it to the surface in the dynamic precip. The key would be that as soon as the precip was to decrease it would switch to rain and would warm the column. The low will bring its own cold pool of air in which the precip and dynamics would bring the air down to the surface from aloft in the precip. We had this similar setup last December that brought some nice exciting times in the SE last year. The heavier the precip the better chances of seeing snow. Of course trying to track that location etc. now is pointless but thats the overall concept.

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I think it's all going to depend on the layer between 850 and the surface I guess...

I wonder if it's cold enough between 850 and the surface?

Bufkit profiles haven't fully updated for every site yet, but low level temps does support wintry precip for some locations I have look at. KFFC, KAVL, KHKY. Very close for KCLT temps below freezing to about 900-920MB, which may support a wintry mix. Low level temps were a little colder the other night I checked, with freezing temps down to 950MB for KATL which does support snow...FWIW though.

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If that upper level low was to move in verbatium as the 12z says we would have cold enough air aloft for snow to make it to the surface in the dynamic precip. The key would be that as soon as the precip was to decrease it would switch to rain and would warm the column. The low will bring its own cold pool of air in which the precip and dynamics would bring the air down to the surface from aloft in the precip. We had this similar setup last December that brought some nice exciting times in the SE last year. The heavier the precip the better chances of seeing snow. Of course trying to track that location etc. now is pointless but thats the overall concept.

Thanks for the clarification. I was thinking it would have enough cold air with it. I'm sure the SE bias is coming into play with the GFS though. Every other run has had it furhter NE.

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Thanks for the clarification. I was thinking it would have enough cold air with it. I'm sure the SE bias is coming into play with the GFS though. Every other run has had it furhter NE.

Burger just for my own refernce and others on here as well this winter. You still have paid access to the Euro with all the goodies? Thanks for all the times you and anyone else spill the beans in advance.

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Thanks for the clarification. I was thinking it would have enough cold air with it. I'm sure the SE bias is coming into play with the GFS though. Every other run has had it furhter NE.

I believe that was one of the corrections during the upgrade and probably one of the reasons for it's better performance since. We'll know soon enough.

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Burger just for my own refernce and others on here as well this winter. You still have paid access to the Euro with all the goodies? Thanks for all the times you and anyone else spill the beans in advance.

Yep just picked it back up. I may be out for lunch though when the Euro comes around but if no one gives an update I'll let everyone know.

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At 150 is that heavy snow verbatim on the GFS for most of southwest NC? Again I really am not very good with these just to my untrained eye it looks good. Almost looks like CLT could be getting in on the action.

Here is the sounding @ 150 for CLT and bufkit data. I have my reservations on whether CLT will get snow. The position the Low is at makes me think that a warm nose might diminish chances of snow.

Here is some optimism "BUT THE OCCLUDED SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BECOME INTERESTING WRT TO WINTRY PRECIP LENGTH/DURATION. TEMPS BEFORE THE FROPA WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL AND POST FROPA...MON...MAX/MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL."(KGSP)

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Here is the sounding @ 150 for CLT and bufkit data. I have my reservations on whether CLT will get snow. The position the Low is at makes me think that a warm nose might diminish chances of snow.

Here is some optimism "BUT THE OCCLUDED SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BECOME INTERESTING WRT TO WINTRY PRECIP LENGTH/DURATION. TEMPS BEFORE THE FROPA WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL AND POST FROPA...MON...MAX/MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL."(KGSP)

With good reason, there's zero chance of snow w/ that sounding.

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With good reason, there's zero chance of snow w/ that sounding.

That sounding is as the front is passing or right before it passes. The soundings a few hours later look much better, but will there still be precip at that point?

Here is one for Marietta with some light precip around... Looks halfway decent...

And Charlotte, but is there precip around?

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That sounding is as the front is passing or right before it passes. The soundings a few hours later look much better, but will there still be precip at that point?

Here is one for Marietta with some light precip around... Looks halfway decent...

And Charlotte, but is there precip around?

You might be able to get some snow showers with that one.

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I think some people need to take a deep breath and then exhale...nobody outside of the mountains will see any snow with next week's upper low.

Add in that this is an upper level low and its 5 days out, I think people need to take a few more breaths (perhaps in a bag). Im not dogging everyone's excitement, hell ive been glued to the models since Sunday afternoon but these things are extremely dependent on track.

I would say we can all start flipping *you know what, come Thursday or Friday. I guess its the 1st real chance and everyone is just excited to have something to talk about. Im not saying we shold stop discussion but sounding analysis this far out seems excessive.

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So I guess the snow being forecast in Nashville next week isn't because of the upper low ?

I was making reference to the North Carolina folks...(should have stated that). That said, even for Nashville...you need some things to go just right...timing of the event being one of those things.

Sorry for being the Debbie Downer...wake me up in 3 weeks and I may sing a different tune.

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