CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You see that high in Hudson's Bay go from 1026 to 1040 about 24 hours later next weekend? Talk about a building high (not damming here though) but a nice blocking one. We've had some damming events overperform already. I think we'll have several good damming situations this year. Also, the storm we have coming up next weekend will be a big newsmaker. If I were betting the odds, I'd say a strong cutoff delivers a major snowstorm somewhere between the Apps and the Plains in about a month, or sometime in December. What's unusual about a snowstorm in the Plains or Midwest or even the Apps in December you ask? The pattern is ripe for one to be a monster one...probably one those folks would remember a long time. Maybe a blizzard. And I wouldn't rule it out to hit near the Tenn. Valley side, or the upper deep south really. But first things first...more rain to catch us up on the deficits. We are used to seeing these cut-off lows in late winter. Kind of strange to be seeing this type of set-up in the Fall. I agree with you in regards to the amped up systems so far this year. Someone will get crushed this winter if it continues. Hopefully we will see some winter action as well. Would be real nice to have another Christmas storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Here is WSI's(sister is weather channel) temperature winter outlook http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/winter-outlook-for-december-to-february_2011-11-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Spann is concerned about svr wx over the weekend, and if the thermodynamic environment manages to recover adequately following tomorrow/Wednesday's system, I could certainly see his point... With 100,000+ people in Auburn for the Iron Bowl, that has to be a EMA Managers worst nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Correct. On July 15th, we had endured a good chunk of the day of with clouds and rain hanging around. We hit the high temperature early that day and it dropped into the mid 60s by the afternoon period! I hit 77 for the midnight temperature and dropped to 63 around 4pm. This was all thanks to a decent damming high situated off to the northeast brining in much cooler air flowing into the Carolinas. If you recall, we also had a CAD in June that caused record low temperatures to be achieved (some reached the 40s for lows)! The CAD we had in July wasn't as strong regarding the low temperatures but still quite impressive and several of the forecasts calling for warmer temperatures around here (thinking it was the 70s) busted that day IIRC. In fact, I was actually getting chilly that day and had to put on a long-sleeved shirt. That back door cold front was amazing. Fall-like conditions were felt for areas underneath that damming. Here were the hourly observations for my area: 12am to 10am: 77-67 with cloudy skies 10am-8pm: 67-63 with showers 8pm-12am: 63-65 with mostly cloudy skies Yep it was around July 15th when it happened. Here.....Per the Experiment Station..... 8 days +90 up to July 14th - 91.2, then July 15th 77.2, and July 16th 84.4. That was a great day And it didn't break 90 again until the 19th. Never, never do we get a break like that in July. Unless it is a few hours during and after a major thunderstorm.... and the effects don't go on for days like this. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You see that high in Hudson's Bay go from 1026 to 1040 about 24 hours later next weekend? Talk about a building high (not damming here though) but a nice blocking one. We've had some damming events overperform already. I think we'll have several good damming situations this year. Also, the storm we have coming up next weekend will be a big newsmaker. If I were betting the odds, I'd say a strong cutoff delivers a major snowstorm somewhere between the Apps and the Plains in about a month, or sometime in December. What's unusual about a snowstorm in the Plains or Midwest or even the Apps in December you ask? The pattern is ripe for one to be a monster one...probably one those folks would remember a long time. Maybe a blizzard. And I wouldn't rule it out to hit near the Tenn. Valley side, or the upper deep south really. But first things first...more rain to catch us up on the deficits. Nobody believes we are going to get snow this year. I just want cold air, I am tired of mowing lawns. Snow or ice will happen, its only November 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It dropped to 59 here. There's an image from Meso analysis somewhere back in the July thread. Most amazing was it was climatologically the hottest part of the year, and the hotttest time of the day when it happened.. It dropped all morning and afternoon with light rain and drizzle . Think it was right around 3 or 4 pm that it hit 59 at the Shelby airport. If I recall the GFS showed it happening 72 hours out, in a very small location ne GA, western SC and NC. On June 14 we were on Roan Mountain on the Appalachian Trail near Carvers Gap and it was 42! That was COLD for June!. Regarding winter, yea I agree, a lot of people are throwing in the towel already. I hope I have to eat my words also, but a lot of what is being shown indicates it is going to be very mild with only brief transient cold shots. Our best hope seems to be from a stratospheric warming event that will push the cold air down later in January/early February. I don't have confidence the negative NAO will deliver this year. I would wager that come January 5, our board will have a lot of disappointed snow hounds still discussing when the pattern will flip ! New Years Eve in the High Country may well be in the low 50s! The pattern just has that feel to it. Again, I hope I am wrong, but I will count my blessings and be thankful for all the snow we do get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We are used to seeing these cut-off lows in late winter. Kind of strange to be seeing this type of set-up in the Fall. I agree with you in regards to the amped up systems so far this year. Someone will get crushed this winter if it continues. Hopefully we will see some winter action as well. Would be real nice to have another Christmas storm to track. If my memory serves me correct (probably off a bit) these strong cut-offs and major systems started rolling in early December last year....too lazy to look it up but I was thinking the first one to really affect the mid atlantic/southern apps was around December 2nd?? Then it lulled a bit but the blocking began and we all know what happened from Christmas and after. Hopefully we are seeing those same kind of signs showing there beautiful faces now. Im out of work till mid February from neck surgery so im more than ready to start tracking!!!! Tomorrow night looks to be pretty interesting for severe threats up here and ne ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Good read on the Great Appalchian Snowstorm of late November 1950 http://www.indywx.com/2011/10/18/current-pattern-and-the-great-appalachian-storm-of-1950/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 0Z GFS run is alot better with the structure of the closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Atlanta tied a record high for today at 76... They are back down to 75 atm but a burst of sunshine in the next hour could push them over the top.... 000 SXUS72 KFFC 212134 RERATL RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 431 PM EST MON NOV 21 2011 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 77 DEGREES WAS SET AT ATLANTA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 76 SET IN 1942. hmm, does anyone know why the text appears linear even though when I pasted it into the post it looked correct? It happens anytime I copy and paste... Is it Firefox perhaps? sorry to go OT. The board just smashes all the text together regardless of spacing at the time of posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 [/size] hmm, does anyone know why the text appears linear even though when I pasted it into the post it looked correct? It happens anytime I copy and paste... Is it Firefox perhaps? sorry to go OT. The board just smashes all the text together regardless of spacing at the time of posting. It's not Firefox. It does the same for me using Chrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 With 100,000+ people in Auburn for the Iron Bowl, that has to be a EMA Managers worst nightmare. It's also a broadcast Met's worst nightmare.... Add in the fact they JUST had a tornado go through LAST week and you create an even worse nightmare..... I'm just looking forward to everyone getting their first BIG cold shot of the year after this closed low moves out. Add in a reinforcing DEEP trough next week and What's funny.... I'll be on vacation next week, so you can pretty much book a nice cold shot for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 And don't forget the Egg Bowl in Starkville Saturday evening. Could be dicey, although the timing has slowed slightly on latest runs. It's also a broadcast Met's worst nightmare.... Add in the fact they JUST had a tornado go through LAST week and you create an even worse nightmare..... I'm just looking forward to everyone getting their first BIG cold shot of the year after this closed low moves out. Add in a reinforcing DEEP trough next week and What's funny.... I'll be on vacation next week, so you can pretty much book a nice cold shot for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Correct. On July 15th, we had endured a good chunk of the day of with clouds and rain hanging around. We hit the high temperature early that day and it dropped into the mid 60s by the afternoon period! I hit 77 for the midnight temperature and dropped to 63 around 4pm. This was all thanks to a decent damming high situated off to the northeast brining in much cooler air flowing into the Carolinas. If you recall, we also had a CAD in June that caused record low temperatures to be achieved (some reached the 40s for lows)! The CAD we had in July wasn't as strong regarding the low temperatures but still quite impressive and several of the forecasts calling for warmer temperatures around here (thinking it was the 70s) busted that day IIRC. In fact, I was actually getting chilly that day and had to put on a long-sleeved shirt. That back door cold front was amazing. Fall-like conditions were felt for areas underneath that damming. Here were the hourly observations for my area: 12am to 10am: 77-67 with cloudy skies 10am-8pm: 67-63 with showers 8pm-12am: 63-65 with mostly cloudy skies Yep it was around July 15th when it happened. Plug in your dates and parameters... http://www.daculaweather.com/meso_archive.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Kind of surprised more people aren't talking about last nights run of the Euro. Am I just being a weenie or did it look awful close to being a hit for WNC? Aren't closed lows also very tough to predict as far as the path they will take? I know climo suggests those of us more on the eastern side of WNC won't get anything but it sure is fun to imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 On June 14 we were on Roan Mountain on the Appalachian Trail near Carvers Gap and it was 42! That was COLD for June!. Regarding winter, yea I agree, a lot of people are throwing in the towel already. I hope I have to eat my words also, but a lot of what is being shown indicates it is going to be very mild with only brief transient cold shots. Our best hope seems to be from a stratospheric warming event that will push the cold air down later in January/early February. I don't have confidence the negative NAO will deliver this year. I would wager that come January 5, our board will have a lot of disappointed snow hounds still discussing when the pattern will flip ! New Years Eve in the High Country may well be in the low 50s! The pattern just has that feel to it. Again, I hope I am wrong, but I will count my blessings and be thankful for all the snow we do get. meanwhile, while you're waiting on the cold to come in January, the GFS has been evolving to a complete pattern change as I mentioned a few days ago. Still very much on, and it uses this coming mega-cutoff to do the trick. Tall +PNA and a nicely place Polar Vortex, possibly even getting near a cross polar flow at some point (before Jan 5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 GFS and GGEM are still showing a truly remarkable event. A full lat trough that morphs into a 5 or 6 contour cutoff sometime around Sunday. The ECMWF isn't quite as impressive but still a big deal. If the GFS verifies, look for a severe outbreak, flooding rains particularly in GA and the Carolinas (esp. the Apps with extra se upslope) , a low level jet high wind event similar to January 2006, followed by much colder in the Tenn Valley and upper South, with snowshowers spiraling in eventually, and possibly additional energy driving in for a major snowstorm over the Midwest or Lakes ...as well as a pattern changer, but thats going pretty far out so I'm not sold on the big PNA pattern of the GFS model yet. Amazing how amplified the pattern is shown on GFS and GGEM right now, probably the tallest, longest, maxed out longitudinal trough you can get. This will tap the Gulf and yield some explosive wild weather for the Miss. Valley/Tn Valley, Southeast and eventually East Coast. I'm not sure we're done seeing how this is going to be yet, and the models may change some more , its possible the low cuts off very deeply in which case some areas would see their first snow. Odds are low of that, but high enough to mention right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Here.....Per the Experiment Station..... 8 days +90 up to July 14th - 91.2, then July 15th 77.2, and July 16th 84.4. That was a great day And it didn't break 90 again until the 19th. Never, never do we get a break like that in July. Unless it is a few hours during and after a major thunderstorm.... and the effects don't go on for days like this. T Does anybody remember July 1997 ( I think it was 1997) I lived in Augusta Ga then and I remember the temps being in the 50's in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Rotation showing up in some of the MS storms now. We're in the sunshine here and the additional heating is really going to fire up these storms. It's coming in a little too late for the heat to help us here but those in Alabama might be in for a rough day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Does anybody remember July 1997 ( I think it was 1997) I lived in Augusta Ga then and I remember the temps being in the 50's in the afternoon. It was 99 and yes, I remember that wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Rotation showing up in some of the MS storms now. We're in the sunshine here and the additional heating is really going to fire up these storms. It's coming in a little too late for the heat to help us here but those in Alabama might be in for a rough day. Yep, full sunshine at 10AM here also. It's going to be a warm record high day today here for sure! I'm a tad concerned about a few storms firing up ahead of the front. If we could squeak some of those in right around sunset it could get nasty here as well. Alabama is definitely going to do better with the storm timing and peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It was 99 and yes, I remember that wedge. I found the date I was talking about. July 31, 1997. I was north of Augusta in Edgefield SC. I believe it was in the upper 50's that afternoon. It did set a record low for Augusta at 62 deg. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDNL/1997/7/31/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I found the date I was talking about. July 31, 1997. I was north of Augusta in Edgefield SC. I believe it was in the upper 50's that afternoon. It did set a record low for Augusta at 62 deg. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KDNL/1997/7/31/DailyHistory.html Dude, those obs are wrong. No way Augusta had a dewpoint of 31 on 7/31. It's just not possible. Look at the obs upstream: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCLT/1997/7/31/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm pretty sure this is what you remember: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCLT/1999/7/12/DailyHistory.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 ...as well as a pattern changer, but thats going pretty far out so I'm not sold on the big PNA pattern of the GFS model yet. There is additional Op and Ensemble support for an improving Pacific pattern with the tall PNA ridge and movement of the Alaska low into the Aleutians. This is the first time I've had any true optimism for cold regarding the mid range pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 since the wx has been so warm lately i have not been paying a lot of attention. just caught up on the boards, and then saw flurries mentioned sunday night and highs in the 40s monday lol. that certainly got my attention it was 73 yesterday and already at 67 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Dude, those obs are wrong. No way Augusta had a dewpoint of 31 on 7/31. It's just not possible. Look at the obs upstream: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html If there is one thing we can say with certainty regarding the weather in the SE, this would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Dude, those obs are wrong. No way Augusta had a dewpoint of 31 on 7/31. It's just not possible. Look at the obs upstream: http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html Yea, I had noticed the dewpoint myself. The problem with 1999 was I lived in Lawrenceville, Ga. It was 97, somehow the dewpoints are way off. But there is half an inch of rain for the day and I remember light to moderate rain all day. I was working in Edgefield at the time also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It was 99 and yes, I remember that wedge. I believe that was when Payne Stewart won at Pinehurst. I remember it being drizzly and cold. I was playing golf myself and I believe it was in the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yea, I had noticed the dewpoint myself. The problem with 1999 was I lived in Lawrenceville, Ga. It was 97, somehow the dewpoints are way off. But there is half an inch of rain for the day and I remember light to moderate rain all day. I was working in Edgefield at the time also. Look at Macon Ga for the same day. http://www.wundergro...atename=Georgia Athens Ga http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KAHN/1997/7/31/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Athens+%2F+Epps&req_state=GA&req_statename=Georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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