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November Disco/Obs II


Isopycnic

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Way too warm over here with a current temperature of 73o. 12z GFS drops close to an inch of rain over me with this system over the next 60 hours. Severe weather looks to be more of an AL/MS threat tomorrow, but will have to be monitored over here. SPC has moved the Slight Risk area over to the east to include North GA and a part of Upstate SC. This would be especially dangerous with the possibility of a few nighttime tornadoes. Looking down the road, what kind of winds are we looking at for the system you are talking about Robert?

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My wife and I are taking our annual pilgrimage to the Smokies the first weekend in December. We have seen snow (at least flurries) for the past 5 years. Some years it was later in December but we are usually money for seeing something. It seems like whenever we catch the Gatlinburg Christmas parade it is always cold as crap.

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My wife and I are taking our annual pilgrimage to the Smokies the first weekend in December. We have seen snow (at least flurries) for the past 5 years. Some years it was later in December but we are usually money for seeing something. It seems like whenever we catch the Gatlinburg Christmas parade it is always cold as crap.

Wow, I also will be in the Gatlinburg/ Pigeon Forge area the 1st weekend of December. For laughs I looked at the 12z GFS surface temps for that time period and they were downright chilly. Widespread 20's and 30's!

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From HPC:

12Z UPDATE... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT TREND TOWARD 00Z-12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN... NAMELY TRENDING FASTER WITH THE INITIAL SRN STREAM TROF MOVING INTO THE SWRN STATES AND THEN TOWARD A DEEP TROF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE E-CNTRL CONUS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN IS NOW THE LONE HOLDOUT IN SHOWING AN EVOLUTION REMOTELY CLOSE TO THE OLD 00Z ECMWF. AS TIME PERMITTED THE FINAL FCST REFLECTS A PARTIAL ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CLUSTERING OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE... THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY DUE TO TYPICAL FCST ERRORS TO BE EXPECTED BY DAY 7.

TROF ALOFT MOVING EWD FROM THE WEST COAST WILL BRING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND AREAS OF PCPN TO THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK WITH A WARMER/DRIER TREND DURING THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS NOT UNANIMOUS... DURING THAT TIME PCPN WILL MOST LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME NW. MEANWHILE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS TEMPS SHOULD TREND COOLER AFTER STARTING THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL... WITH INCREASING PCPN CHANCES. THE CURRENT MOST LIKELY SCENARIO OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS MID-LATE PERIOD WOULD BRING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THIS REGION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK... WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALSO PSBL UNDER/W OF THE TROF ALOFT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE TROF ALOFT EVOLVES... SOME LOCATIONS

MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW. WITH ARRIVAL OF 12Z GUIDANCE THE LOWER PROBABILITY SCENARIO OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TEMPS IS NOW MORE IN THE MINORITY THAN BEFORE

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Atlanta tied a record high for today at 76... They are back down to 75 atm but a burst of sunshine in the next hour could push them over the top....

This is worse than the other day! Just came off 78.2 and I'm now 76.6. I do not wish to see any more spinners for at least 3 years!

On the good side I can't say how many times I've seen snow on the back end of near record highs :) T

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Wow, I also will be in the Gatlinburg/ Pigeon Forge area the 1st weekend of December. For laughs I looked at the 12z GFS surface temps for that time period and they were downright chilly. Widespread 20's and 30's!

I was planning on hiking to Andrews Bald one of the days but as currently projected it will be way to cold for my son. I love cold and snow but it's harder to enjoy when I have to worry about getting my son sick. He's going to look like the younger brother in A Christmas Story already.

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Looks like some areas across the piedmont locations of SC/NC will be getting into some good rainfall.

I've picked up over a half-inch of rain in the past 20 minutes! (Good enough to earn the old "It's raining cats and dogs" moniker on the Vantage Vue!) Rain was pouring down and reminded me of my need to clean out the gutters. Ugh!! There's just a light sprinkle currently, but that rain was quite the surprise! :thumbsup:

On another note, was the board down for about 30 minutes recently?

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Wow what a wind storm that just went through Shelby (Moss Lake area). I was working a row of hedges when all of a sudden a wall of wind with leaves as high as you could see came crashing through the neighborhood. It was quite a sight overlooking the lake at all those leaves floating, look like a plague of locusts...I'd never seen anything quite like that before. Then the heavy rains hit. I wasn't expecting this today...bonus rain. Matter of fact, I'm surprised how much rain I'm getting this Fall. I've overperformed in the rain dept (for me) since last Spring with hardly any let up. This is an odd Nina for sure here. Hope that keeps on going.

This would be especially dangerous with the possibility of a few nighttime tornadoes. Looking down the road, what kind of winds are we looking at for the system you are talking about Robert?

Some 55knt winds near the surface if I recall the GFS. I'm going to look again since I was pressed for time earlier. The way I see it, no matter which model turns out right, this is going to be a whopper of a system for the region as a whole. If its deeper and closes off more toward MEM, then just east of there will have a chance at a widespread low level jet high wind event, and a couple squall lines with severe weather, and a heavy rain max located right around ne GA, sw NC, nw SC region (that always does well in se upslope) With strong t'storms raking the Carolinas then the whole eastern seaboard except Maine and northern New England. All that gives way to a sharp cool down and snowshowers on the backside possible, well south if the ECMWF is right, more likely around Tn Valley. If the models trend more north with everything, it would be less of a strong LLJ but probably prolong the rain and training a little bit (maybe less severe Tstorms/Squalls). Anything's still possible. I have to admit as much as I want to see GFS verify, its probably too far south. However, we are in a unique pattern with extreme amplification. The rest of the run of GFS and some degree ECM looked pretty strange, almost bizarre with all the cutoffs and deep troughs/tall ridges. I wonder how much longer we will go with this. Surely it quiets down some for Winter, but I'm still very much open to some pretty wild things happening this Winter, just anecdotally using patterns. Overall I see this kind of pattern as an extreme pattern, even though many others are kind of quiet and ho-hum on the last few weeks (and apparently next few months), look how everything has transpired: Texas drought and heat of a lifetime, the Southeast 2nd hottest Summer, following #1 Hottest Summer, A terribly active severe weather season, last years historic blocking and pretty snowy Dec/Jan. Extreme rainfall/snowfall Pac . NW, Major Alaskan storm recently, all the strong cutoffs of the Ohio Valley and East this Fall. November tornadoes. Makes you think whats next? A 5 or 6 Contour cutoff sitting over Arkansas wouldn't surprise me at all.:arrowhead:

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Wow what a wind storm that just went through Shelby (Moss Lake area). I was working a row of hedges when all of a sudden a wall of wind with leaves as high as you could see came crashing through the neighborhood. It was quite a sight overlooking the lake at all those leaves floating, look like a plague of locusts...I'd never seen anything quite like that before. Then the heavy rains hit. I wasn't expecting this today...bonus rain. Matter of fact, I'm surprised how much rain I'm getting this Fall. I've overperformed in the rain dept (for me) since last Spring with hardly any let up. This is an odd Nina for sure here. Hope that keeps on going.

Some 55knt winds near the surface if I recall the GFS. I'm going to look again since I was pressed for time earlier. The way I see it, no matter which model turns out right, this is going to be a whopper of a system for the region as a whole. If its deeper and closes off more toward MEM, then just east of there will have a chance at a widespread low level jet high wind event, and a couple squall lines with severe weather, and a heavy rain max located right around ne GA, sw NC, nw SC region (that always does well in se upslope) With strong t'storms raking the Carolinas then the whole eastern seaboard except Maine and northern New England. All that gives way to a sharp cool down and snowshowers on the backside possible, well south if the ECMWF is right, more likely around Tn Valley. If the models trend more north with everything, it would be less of a strong LLJ but probably prolong the rain and training a little bit (maybe less severe Tstorms/Squalls). Anything's still possible. I have to admit as much as I want to see GFS verify, its probably too far south. However, we are in a unique pattern with extreme amplification. The rest of the run of GFS and some degree ECM looked pretty strange, almost bizarre with all the cutoffs and deep troughs/tall ridges. I wonder how much longer we will go with this. Surely it quiets down some for Winter, but I'm still very much open to some pretty wild things happening this Winter, just anecdotally using patterns. Overall I see this kind of pattern as an extreme pattern, even though many others are kind of quiet and ho-hum on the last few weeks (and apparently next few months), look how everything has transpired: Texas drought and heat of a lifetime, the Southeast 2nd hottest Summer, following #1 Hottest Summer, A terribly active severe weather season, last years historic blocking and pretty snowy Dec/Jan. Extreme rainfall/snowfall Pac . NW, Major Alaskan storm recently, all the strong cutoffs of the Ohio Valley and East this Fall. November tornadoes. Makes you think whats next? A 5 or 6 Contour cutoff sitting over Arkansas wouldn't surprise me at all.:arrowhead:

It was quite a surprising event here as well. Initial gust kicked up to around 30 mph just before the tremendous rain fell; almost as if someone dumped a massive bucket of water over my area. The lightning was pretty good too. As a matter of fact, a couple of close CG bolts struck right around my neighborhood and it lit up the entire house through the windows. Good stuff. I managed to get around a quarter of an inch of rain, so that puts my total at 2.60" for the month. Unbelievable despite most forecast called for just an isolated shower or two around the region.

It does seem like the rare events of the weather are rearing their heads ever since December 2010. A White Christmas that hasn't been seen for 63 years, two horrific tornado outbreaks, unusual amounts of rain through this Fall, bizarre temperature readings during a strong summer CAD event... The list goes on but the weather has been nothing short of amazing around here. Hopefully we can keep this up as this allows plenty of things to discuss about on the forum.

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The 18Z GFS is another interesting run. There could be fun times ahead this time next week. Cold and flurries for some of us outside the mountains?

18z certainly teases it, the problem is that we've seen it a million times. When you have such low qpf on the map and it's cold chasing the storm you almost always get nothing on the backside arrowheadsmiley.png

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The 18Z GFS is another interesting run. There could be fun times ahead this time next week. Cold and flurries for some of us outside the mountains?

Love what it does with the track of that system between 204-240 as it traverses along the Gulf and eventually the East Coast, strengthening up to a 1003mb low as it sits on the NC coast. As Burger pointed out, it's nice but wouldn't help if the cold air isn't there ahead of the system. Still, it's an interesting run.

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It does seem like the rare events of the weather are rearing their heads ever since December 2010. A White Christmas that hasn't been seen for 63 years, two horrific tornado outbreaks, unusual amounts of rain through this Fall, bizarre temperature readings during a strong summer CAD event... The list goes on but the weather has been nothing short of amazing around here. Hopefully we can keep this up as this allows plenty of things to discuss about on the forum.

That CAD event in... what was it, July?... was amazing. It also had a really sharp cutoff; I was sweating buckets outside in 95 degree weather when it was in the mid-70s in WNC. I'm not even that far away.... what day was it again?

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Finally..

I have been monitoring the long range forecasts from Accuweather and Weather.com for kicks and giggles. Tonight, they have finally introduced the word snow in the long range (December 4th that night) for the North Carolina foothills.Mostly cloudy with a bit of snow, ice and rain. As of lately, they have been calling it rain with temps below freezing.

But, they are calling it rain at 20 degrees again the night of December 5th and with heavier precip. arrowheadsmiley.png

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That CAD event in... what was it, July?... was amazing. It also had a really sharp cutoff; I was sweating buckets outside in 95 degree weather when it was in the mid-70s in WNC. I'm not even that far away.... what day was it again?

It dropped to 59 here. There's an image from Meso analysis somewhere back in the July thread. Most amazing was it was climatologically the hottest part of the year, and the hotttest time of the day when it happened.:axe:. It dropped all morning and afternoon with light rain and drizzle . Think it was right around 3 or 4 pm that it hit 59 at the Shelby airport. If I recall the GFS showed it happening 72 hours out, in a very small location ne GA, western SC and NC.

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That CAD event in... what was it, July?... was amazing. It also had a really sharp cutoff; I was sweating buckets outside in 95 degree weather when it was in the mid-70s in WNC. I'm not even that far away.... what day was it again?

I believe it was around July 14-15. It was right before the blazing heat came.

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That CAD event in... what was it, July?... was amazing. It also had a really sharp cutoff; I was sweating buckets outside in 95 degree weather when it was in the mid-70s in WNC. I'm not even that far away.... what day was it again?

Correct. On July 15th, we had endured a good chunk of the day of with clouds and rain hanging around. We hit the high temperature early that day and it dropped into the mid 60s by the afternoon period! I hit 77 for the midnight temperature and dropped to 63 around 4pm. This was all thanks to a decent damming high situated off to the northeast brining in much cooler air flowing into the Carolinas. If you recall, we also had a CAD in June that caused record low temperatures to be achieved (some reached the 40s for lows)! The CAD we had in July wasn't as strong regarding the low temperatures but still quite impressive and several of the forecasts calling for warmer temperatures around here (thinking it was the 70s) busted that day IIRC. In fact, I was actually getting chilly that day and had to put on a long-sleeved shirt. That back door cold front was amazing. Fall-like conditions were felt for areas underneath that damming.

Here were the hourly observations for my area:

12am to 10am: 77-67 with cloudy skies

10am-8pm: 67-63 with showers

8pm-12am: 63-65 with mostly cloudy skies

I believe it was around July 14-15. It was right before the blazing heat came.

Yep it was around July 15th when it happened.

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Now winter is almost here, We want be able to buy a CAD! :devilsmiley:

You see that high in Hudson's Bay go from 1026 to 1040 about 24 hours later next weekend? Talk about a building high (not damming here though) but a nice blocking one. We've had some damming events overperform already. I think we'll have several good damming situations this year. Also, the storm we have coming up next weekend will be a big newsmaker. If I were betting the odds, I'd say a strong cutoff delivers a major snowstorm somewhere between the Apps and the Plains in about a month, or sometime in December. What's unusual about a snowstorm in the Plains or Midwest or even the Apps in December you ask? The pattern is ripe for one to be a monster one...probably one those folks would remember a long time. Maybe a blizzard. And I wouldn't rule it out to hit near the Tenn. Valley side, or the upper deep south really. But first things first...more rain to catch us up on the deficits.:thumbsup:

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You see that high in Hudson's Bay go from 1026 to 1040 about 24 hours later next weekend? Talk about a building high (not damming here though) but a nice blocking one. We've had some damming events overperform already. I think we'll have several good damming situations this year. Also, the storm we have coming up next weekend will be a big newsmaker. If I were betting the odds, I'd say a strong cutoff delivers a major snowstorm somewhere between the Apps and the Plains in about a month, or sometime in December. What's unusual about a snowstorm in the Plains or Midwest or even the Apps in December you ask? The pattern is ripe for one to be a monster one...probably one those folks would remember a long time. Maybe a blizzard. And I wouldn't rule it out to hit near the Tenn. Valley side, or the upper deep south really. But first things first...more rain to catch us up on the deficits.:thumbsup:

Thanks, For trying to cheer up a depressed snowman. :(:frostymelt:

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