FoothillsNC Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Good chance of having at least one or two record highs set here in the coming week. If we're going to do it, it would be ahead of the strong developing cutoff . Areas to the east of the extreme amped up system to our west would get a slug of +9 to +12, but thats probably not quite good enough for record highs, especially since clouds will be in here quickly. Seems like a Nino pattern lately, with clouds more often than not, even when its not raining. ECMWF gets us only to mid 60's Friday and Saturday, GFS looked similar. By Sunday, the ECMWF has a deep cutoff in Tx. The GFS was a smidge further east but I think its safe to say we're heading right back to extreme amplified pattern. This looks like a major rain event for areas just east of the circulation in the Lower Miss Valley/TN Valley , possibly central to northern GA. Its too early to nail down specifics, but the GFS paints widespread 5" through the Tenn. Valley but thats two seperate events. It will come down to where the strong cutoff develops and how quickly (or slowly ) it crawls. With such an anomalous deep trough/ridge/trough flow, and perfectly positioned to tap the Gulf, someone is going to really pile up some rains. Also, possibly significant snow on the nw side...looks like around Oklahoma or nearby. Also, with the blocking high ridge in the Atlantic, the return flow could send strong training up through GA and the Apps at some point. ECMWF looks to be oriented a little differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 It will come down to where the strong cutoff develops and how quickly (or slowly ) it crawls. With such an anomalous deep trough/ridge/trough flow, and perfectly positioned to tap the Gulf, someone is going to really pile up some rains. Also, possibly significant snow on the nw side...looks like around Oklahoma or nearby. Also, with the blocking high ridge in the Atlantic, the return flow could send strong training up through GA and the Apps at some point. ECMWF looks to be oriented a little differently. Wow, still pos tilt but if it is anything like the 0z run, there is still a good deal of energy coming down on the backside to turn it, quite severely, maybe in the 540-546 range... 12z GFS ocludes the ULL over the Middle MS River/TN Valley for a couple days, then finally pulls it out to the NE around 228hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 What appears to be coming into view is the greater liklihood of a major cutoff system for just after Thanksgiving. It is interesting, as Robert has noted, how amped up this pattern has been and continues to be. What will be most interesting to me is if we can continue with these types of systems........... we probably won't have sustained cold like the last two years, BUT we may very well have several areas in the southeast that end up with above average snowfall thanks to the potential of larger systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 63.8 after a high of 70.1. It sure was humid today too. If the string of more potent systems than expected, around here, keeps going, I'm hoping for some good rains with the tstorms, this time. And the more potent systems will bode well for down the line when we get one meeting some cad, or other well placed high. For now I just hope the spinners don't come with these storms. T Edit: and I picked up .1 over night too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Here in Waycross, we had a record high of 84 breaking the old record of 82 set in 1950 according to Wunderground.com. We also was the warmest in the state with 84 next to Valdosta Regional with 84 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Cloudy and cool all day with a high of 59 - light rain earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I'm liking the look of the current radar. Solid cluster of showers crossing the AL/GA border heading towards me. Currently 61o .1" would be a nice surprise. Hope it holds together. Edit: And its fizzling... Shouldn't have said anything! Maybe I'll get some sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The 00Z GFS is going to be a good one...Nice cutoff/ull low on the GFS, which in itself should produce some interesting weather. 00Z OP GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Interesting weather POSSIBLE for parts of the south later this weekend into next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 the ECMWF dopped its cutoff idea last run and allows the northern stream to bypass the southern part, therefore it looks a lot different now. GFS is maintaining a deep cutoff somewhere between Miss. River and the Ohio Rivers, with a good rain event , and snow on west side. The flow is too fast and has a lot of energy to predict accurately right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yeah, this weekend is a tough nut to crack. I am leaning toward the cutoff scenario of the GFS and the Canadian (and the Euro on previous runs to the 0z today). But you do wonder if maybe the Euro is sniffing something out with the 0z run today. Will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro goes back to the cutoff solution as opposed to northern stream dominant solution. the ECMWF dopped its cutoff idea last run and allows the northern stream to bypass the southern part, therefore it looks a lot different now. GFS is maintaining a deep cutoff somewhere between Miss. River and the Ohio Rivers, with a good rain event , and snow on west side. The flow is too fast and has a lot of energy to predict accurately right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Fog this morning in Marietta, GA was the thickest I've seen all year by leaps and bounds. Downright dangerous but oh so pretty..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Atlanta/Marietta could easily set back to back record highs today and tomorrow. Atlanta's record high for today 76 tomorrow 74... forecast highs are going to be right about there both days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Atlanta/Marietta could easily set back to back record highs today and tomorrow. Atlanta's record high for today 76 tomorrow 74... forecast highs are going to be right about there both days! Here too...full sun right now so we should have no problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Interesting weather POSSIBLE for parts of the south later this weekend into next week If only I had a dollar for everytime those maps were wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Fog this morning in Marietta, GA was the thickest I've seen all year by leaps and bounds. Downright dangerous but oh so pretty..... The fog was truly incredible around 5am this morning when I woke up. I have always used my neighbors yard light as a measure of how thick the fog is. It's about 1000 feet away and if it gets to the point you barely see it, that is some truly thick fog and somewhat rare. But this morning, I could not see the light at all. I was stunned because I don't recall ever not seeing it at least a little bit. Hell my flag pole 40 feet from the house was hard to see even. And it was so thick that when you breathed you could feel it. So this mornings fog was pretty notable for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Another good precip event on the way with a decent pos. tilt trough. Might eek out another inch here, which is always welcome. TN and KY are making out very well in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Fog this morning in Marietta, GA was the thickest I've seen all year by leaps and bounds. Downright dangerous but oh so pretty..... The fog was truly incredible around 5am this morning when I woke up. I have always used my neighbors yard light as a measure of how thick the fog is. It's about 1000 feet away and if it gets to the point you barely see it, that is some truly thick fog and somewhat rare. But this morning, I could not see the light at all. I was stunned because I don't recall ever not seeing it at least a little bit. Hell my flag pole 40 feet from the house was hard to see even. And it was so thick that when you breathed you could feel it. So this mornings fog was pretty notable for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Another good precip event on the way with a decent pos. tilt trough. Might eek out another inch here, which is always welcome. TN and KY are making out very well in this pattern. 12z has another good event rain wise for us next week as well. Could be another inch or two if it hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12z has another good event rain wise for us next week as well. Could be another inch or two if it hold up. Yep. the GFS is staying with its cutoff idea. Whats more, the strong winds. This could end up being a dangerous low level wind field event complete with a well developed low level jet. We've had a few of those before and the GFS has a slug of 850 winds developing on the east side of the strongly developing 5h cutoff (in western TN at 140 hr). That would place GA in a dangerous spot, and sure enough its 925mb winds are 55knts if I recall, the whole 850 wind field is tight but oriented strong north to south as it crosses the Apps. The lower level 925 winds are strong starting in GA and working to western Carolinas by 144 to 150 hours aimed right at n. Ga , western Carolinas...so thats quite a wind event, even without convection. I've seen high wind events play out like this, and almost always the deeper the 5h low to our west in TN, and in a very longitudinal flow (north-south). It can come preceding a squall line or after a squall line. Definitely a fascinating system to watch. Lets see if the ECMWF joins it later. But for now its having good ensemble support. I have to jet out for the afternoon, but just looking really quick again at the run, it brings the high winds across Carolinas and stretches northwest to Michigan. Blocking surface high in Eastern Canada, and the placement of everything on this run screams severe, then heavy rains (upslope strongly in ne Ga, se facing apps), then high wind event. I couldn't have drawn it better. If the GFS verifies exactly like that, its going to do some damage in several ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 GFS uses this storm to change the pattern . Its so massive it has a huge influence on the flow . Brings down colder air, but not terribly cold ...but its a definitely flow changer. Incredibly cold air is developed in central to north Canada, in fact the coldest in the hemisphere is on our side. And the GFS has atleast a weak PNA and some ridging in northern Greenland. Don't know if any of its right, esp. farther out, but I'm seeing wintry precip threats in December somewhere pretty far south once we get this behometh over with (assuming this large cutoff comes to pass)....no shortage of s/w in the flow...supressed flow could be coming (sort of split in the flow) Still a little antsy on it, but I do lean more GFS than ECMWF lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 GFS uses this storm to change the pattern . Its so massive it has a huge influence on the flow . Brings down colder air, but not terribly cold ...but its a definitely flow changer. Incredibly cold air is developed in central to north Canada, in fact the coldest in the hemisphere is on our side. And the GFS has atleast a weak PNA and some ridging in northern Greenland. Don't know if any of its right, esp. farther out, but I'm seeing wintry precip threats in December somewhere pretty far south once we get this behometh over with (assuming this large cutoff comes to pass)....no shortage of s/w in the flow...supressed flow could be coming (sort of split in the flow) Still a little antsy on it, but I do lean more GFS than ECMWF lately. Yep that storm near the end of the run has a good look to it and might be something to watch IF the pattern indeed changes. This run gives a little bit of hope but like you said should be taken with a grain of salt until others join in on the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Jumped from 70 to 73 in an hour. Looks like the mid 70s will end up being the highs around here for the day. Almost late Spring-season like weather out here instead of late Fall. Didn't expect a shower to come through while I was asleep so everything out here has been wet for the past several hours and just now getting into full sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 If the gfs is correct this November will end up very wet over the SE. Kinda interesting given the Nina. Looking back at some analogs, 67-68 looks decent for the east coast and west coast, but will probably be too dry for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 77 here at 1PM. 80 looks like a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yep. Just got an SWS alert on my phone for the action coming into the Southern NC mountain counties. Yep, 11/21 it is 77 here at 1PM. 80 looks like a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Looks like the ECMWF is back to a cutoff. Its further west and northwest than GFS and a little slower. Still a little ways off in a dangerous time frame but its looking like there will be one, just where is the question, and how it's oriented. They both having a strong sfc high in eastern Canada and strong deep southern energy coming up the front from GA /SC. In fact ECMWF generates decent synoptic snow in east TN, WNC, EKY at 162 hours and 168 hours with the strongly neg. tilt . And it has -8 coming into central MS/Al. With a flow like that, maybe some flurries underneath the moisture there west of the Apps once the storm is fully cut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Looks like the ECMWF is back to a cutoff. Its further west and northwest than GFS and a little slower. Still a little ways off in a dangerous time frame but its looking like there will be one, just where is the question, and how it's oriented. They both having a strong sfc high in eastern Canada and strong deep southern energy coming up the front from GA /SC. In fact ECMWF generates decent synoptic snow in east TN, WNC, EKY at 162 hours and 168 hours with the strongly neg. tilt . And it has -8 coming into central MS/Al. With a flow like that, maybe some flurries underneath the moisture there west of the Apps once the storm is fully cut off. Hey Robert, in the grand scheme of things how strong is this cutoff modeled? It seems VERY potent from my perspective but I would love to hear yours. Also would flurries include parts of North Georgia? The GFS keep hinting at a few even down here if it were to verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Depending on how quick the atmosphere cools off, looks like KTRI is the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12z has another good event rain wise for us next week as well. Could be another inch or two if it hold up. GFS does it again, H5 closes off in the Middle MS River Valley around 144. ULL begins to tilt neg thereafter with <540 heights starting to show up in western TN. Also a nice surface reflection, 998mb in southeast IN. Have to hand it to the Global, it has been somewhat consistent with this solution. The 6z op had better support from its ensembles compared to the 0z run. 6z GFS ens members were similar to the 0z Canadian members, most had the cut-off, just a matter of where, and a couple had a deap slp in or near the OH Valley, 980-range. 12z EC implying svr wx for many and possible tornado threat for central and eastern carolinas, likely VA too as the ULL tilts neg, hard, around 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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