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November Disco/Obs II


Isopycnic

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This is feeling like one of those roller coaster falls, where near record heat in places meets cold shots, and they do the severe dance until the cold gets locked in later on. I'd just as soon skip the severe, and get right into the day to day cold, or at least get some mitigating cad :) But I don't think the other day was the last chance for that kind of system. T

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27 for the low. The outside certainly reminds me of one those days where snow is about to move in. If only lol... :)

26 for the low here.....I believe I saw Charlotte at 24 degrees early this morning. They must have had clear skies a little longer than we did here.......... Cloudy and 32 here now. Does look and feel like winter.

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27 for the low. The outside certainly reminds me of one those days where snow is about to move in. If only lol... :)

Waking up to temps in the mid 30s with overcast skies and east winds this morning certainly reminded me of an impending winter event. I love these types of mornings. I so badly want a classic wedge/winter storm. So fun to track, so fun to try and nail down precip types and amounts, and so fun to watch it unfold. I hope this is the year we finally get one.

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light drizzle here now..could have been some sleet if it began a little earlier. Not going to make the low 50s here I don't think. I'm forecasting 40's mostly in the western Carolinas, north Ga region. Even with light southerly or se flow the wetbulbs are too low and the latest GFS NAM have us in-situ wedged in. Right now 40.

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It was 26 at 5 a.m., then the clouds moved in. Up to 29 by 7 a.m., then to 33 at 9 a.m., There was very heavy frost before sunrise, then a light mist fell, but didn't freeze. It melted the ice on the cars and eliminated the frost. Never saw any snow or sleet, but it seemed very possible. It's now 34, and the deck is still wet, as is everything else. No precip right now, but the clouds are still heavy. No wind. Here's a pic I made on Thursday morning while a light rain fell just to my north. Now I know why they call them the "Smokies".

post-1004-0-24058900-1321713167.jpg

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It was 26 at 5 a.m., then the clouds moved in. Up to 29 by 7 a.m., then to 33 at 9 a.m., There was very heavy frost before sunrise, then a light mist fell, but didn't freeze. It melted the ice on the cars and eliminated the frost. Never saw any snow or sleet, but it seemed very possible. It's now 34, and the deck is still wet, as is everything else. No precip right now, but the clouds are still heavy. No wind. Here's a pic I made on Thursday morning while a light rain fell just to my north. Now I know why they call them the "Smokies".

Awesome picture- thanks for posting.

Jason

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Still have the east wind, but the sun just popped out, so I guess the temps will be jumping up now. 53.9 at present. T

Same here, sun is out and 50 now. So I busted for the day. Anyway, the GFS now has a pattern change, still no block though, and I won't commit myself to believing it yet. But it carves out a mid continent trough, via strong PNA pattern, so if that happens we'll turn substantially colder in the states, including here. It's going to have trouble where the s/w are so don't pay too close attention to that snow it gives the Southeast just yet. Overall still a very active pattern, with more cold air thrown into the mix if its right.

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Same here, sun is out and 50 now. So I busted for the day. Anyway, the GFS now has a pattern change, still no block though, and I won't commit myself to believing it yet. But it carves out a mid continent trough, via strong PNA pattern, so if that happens we'll turn substantially colder in the states, including here. It's going to have trouble where the s/w are so don't pay too close attention to that snow it gives the Southeast just yet. Overall still a very active pattern, with more cold air thrown into the mix if its right.

EURO also shows some snow first week of December? I really hope they are right and it does not get pushed back every other run.

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Same here, sun is out and 50 now. So I busted for the day. Anyway, the GFS now has a pattern change, still no block though, and I won't commit myself to believing it yet. But it carves out a mid continent trough, via strong PNA pattern, so if that happens we'll turn substantially colder in the states, including here. It's going to have trouble where the s/w are so don't pay too close attention to that snow it gives the Southeast just yet. Overall still a very active pattern, with more cold air thrown into the mix if its right.

Ended up with 63.2. Still have the wedge wind, but the sun killed off the cool day. Glad you told us not to get juiced over the end of the month snow, because I really wanted to believe, lol.

Don't worry, I don't get antsy until after Xmas, but that said, if you start to agitate, then I'll get jumpy too :) Meanwhile, looks like some more boomers will drag through Tues./Tues. night. Here's hoping they won't be quit so energetic down this way, but will over produce in the rain department. I worry Candyman might be getting too much excitement :) FFC is trying to get us into the upper 70's again, and that is worrying.

Just loving all the sw's in the stream, 'cause like I said, my best shot at cold is in the winter, and it ain't winter yet. Tony

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Taken from the main forums... glimmers from afar....

http://www.americanw...ost__p__1130381

from the NYC forum...

back in August we had the 3rd lowest August AO monthly reading since 1950...Here is a list of years with the lowest August monthly index and the following winters lowest monthly index...15 of 17 years listed had a winter month with a lower index...Two of the five la nina years had a higher index...reds are El nino years and blue la Nina years...Black's are neutral...The AO is now positive since August...1974 and 1999 are the only years the AO index was higher during the winter months...Some other years saw a positive AO after August...1977 was one...that was an el nino year though...1964 went positive for a month in October but slipped back negative by November...

year......August AO....low winter AO

1977..........-1.412..........-3.014 Feb...

1964..........-1.207..........-2.084 Feb...

2011..........-1.063..........????

1960..........-1.008..........-1.506 Jan...

1966..........-0.945..........-1.401 Dec...

1950..........-0.851..........-1.928 Dec...

1987..........-0.836..........-1.066 Feb...

1986..........-0.826..........-1.473 Feb...

1958..........-0.755..........-2.013 Jan...

1959..........-0.745..........-2.484 Jan...

1969..........-0.728..........-2.412 Jan...

2004..........-0.720..........-1.271 Feb...

1999..........-0.672.........+1.076 Feb...

1968..........-0.671..........-3.114 Feb...

1956..........-0.652..........-1.513 Feb...

1963..........-0.625..........-1.178 Dec...

1974..........-0.533.........+0.194 Feb...

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