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November Disco/Obs II

Isopycnic

By Isopycnic,
in Southeastern States

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

CHS breaks out the double exclamations...

HA! Augusta was 40!!! degrees colder than yesterday morning at one point... I only know this because I showed the 24 hr temp. change graphic I have... I just said I was in awe of the cold and power of this front... haha!

On another note... The tornado that went through my viewing area, Auburn/Opelika/Lake Harding/Hamilton was rated an EF2 with a path AT LEAST 59 miles long and a maximum width of a half mile! The NWS in Birmingham is doing an aerial survey this morning to see if there is a continuous damage path from Montgomery to northern Talbot County... That would make the path AT LEAST 95 to 100 miles!!!! It's amazing no one was seriously injured or killed in my neck of the woods with all the downed trees on houses and cars. I'm forever grateful that people knew what to do when the warnings were issued... I have to give it up to them. We, as meteorologists, can only do so much. It's the PEOPLE who have to take the actions we tell them/they know about.

My heart still goes out to the families of the 6 victims to my east though... :(

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Very chilly. Just saw 25.3 in your signature.:thumbsup:

Down to a bone chilling 23.9 here in Dahlonega.

Kind of disappointed here. I only just barely made freezing. And I was wanting to see all the recent rain extruding up from the hard frozen ground :)

Oh, well, having Robert bring up sub 0 possibilities will have me happy all day, lol. I've been wanting to break that -9 record for a long while. Having thoughts of -15 with a foot of sleet/snow on the ground, beats thoughts of sugar plums every day :) And Santa already knows what I want for Xmas! Tony

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Latest La Nina projections are out as of yesterday.

For the IRI graph, if you average all of the models (dynamical and statistical), it comes to -0.8 for DJF (Dec/Jan/Feb) and -0.7 for JFM - i.e. weak La Nina.

The PDF Corrected CFS forecast comes to -1.2 (mod La Nina) for DJF and -1.0 for JFM (weak/mod La Nina) - I have read where the PDF corrected version of the CFS forecasts are typically much more accurate than the standard CFS forecasts.

SST_table.gif

PDFcr_nino34SSTSea.gif

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

31.4 last night at the homestead. That is my first sub freezing reading of the year. Dobbins recorded 30 for a low... I think my thermometer is a degree or two off or in a warm spot, or maybe not placed very well. I'm kinda limited to where I can put it due to sunlight hitting the sensor.

This is the thermometer I use : http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16882170173&nm_mc=OTC-Froogle&cm_mmc=OTC-Froogle-_-Electronic+Gadgets-_-Oregon+Scientific-_-82170173

Is that a decent enough one and is there a better one someone can recommend one that does not involve buying a whole Weather Station.

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

On another note... The tornado that went through my viewing area, Auburn/Opelika/Lake Harding/Hamilton was rated an EF2 with a path AT LEAST 59 miles long and a maximum width of a half mile! The NWS in Birmingham is doing an aerial survey this morning to see if there is a continuous damage path from Montgomery to northern Talbot County... That would make the path AT LEAST 95 to 100 miles!!!! It's amazing no one was seriously injured or killed in my neck of the woods with all the downed trees on houses and cars. I'm forever grateful that people knew what to do when the warnings were issued... I have to give it up to them. We, as meteorologists, can only do so much. It's the PEOPLE who have to take the actions we tell them/they know about.

My heart still goes out to the families of the 6 victims to my east though... :(

That's an impressively long tracked tornado for Nov...

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Lee

Lee

Posted
Posted

Interesting, as our leaves have been ~90% downed for well over two weeks.

Yeah, has alot to do with elevation and warm spot/cold spot deals. Where he's @ there in Kingsport they are always later than surrounding areas in falling, even in the Tri-cities metro. It is lower in elevation than Bristol and Johnson city. There are not alot of difference in how soon the leaves fall from Kingsport and J.city though, as I guess even though j.city is higher they are still a little further south.

It can also be the dominant type trees you have, as Oaks tend to hang on longer than say Maples. Although, from what I've observed that is not the reason in discussed area, as there is a mix of each. So, apparently it's where it's somewhat warmer in Kingsport.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Those of you constantly on the fret about it getting "torch" or too warm, here's the ECMWF new 5 day compared with old 10 day. It had the timing way off, even with the timing error it's producing way to high of heights, and doesn't seem to be seeing the deep, strong troughs we're getting in the East. Therefore, I'd take its weeklies with more salt than I would the 384 GFS. The same pattern continues to repeat: deep western trough, but very progressive and supressed, and waves stay supressed into the MidSouth. Just ahead of these strong cold fronts we turn warm with strong SW flow, before the full lat trough pushes in a mixture of Cp and martime air, usually more Cp air lately, esp the Apps region. The last few systems have done this and the next couple look to do the same. This is not a long-lived Bermuda ridge pattern. So the point is, the op.ECMWF beyond 5 days is way off and usually begins to correct itself to the pattern within 5 days. And while on the subject of whats coming up in 10 days, a parcel of the cold Alaskan air will probably get absorbed into the full lat. trough by day 7 or maybe the one on day 10. That could be our coldest air yet, despite the fact the overall look at 5H wouldn't really show any real cold air getting to us. Likewise, I think NC, TN and points north will end up below average for Nov. on temps.

post-38-0-17260600-1321650833.gif

post-38-0-41642900-1321651070.gif

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Those of you constantly on the fret about it getting "torch" or too warm, here's the ECMWF new 5 day compared with old 10 day. It had the timing way off, even with the timing error it's producing way to high of heights, and doesn't seem to be seeing the deep, strong troughs we're getting in the East. Therefore, I'd take its weeklies with more salt than I would the 384 GFS. The same pattern continues to repeat: deep western trough, but very progressive and supressed, and waves stay supressed into the MidSouth. Just ahead of these strong cold fronts we turn warm with strong SW flow, before the full lat trough pushes in a mixture of Cp and martime air, usually more Cp air lately, esp the Apps region. The last few systems have done this and the next couple look to do the same. This is not a long-lived Bermuda ridge pattern. So the point is, the op.ECMWF beyond 5 days is way off and usually begins to correct itself to the pattern within 5 days. And while on the subject of whats coming up in 10 days, a parcel of the cold Alaskan air will probably get absorbed into the full lat. trough by day 7 or maybe the one on day 10. That could be our coldest air yet, despite the fact the overall look at 5H wouldn't really show any real cold air getting to us. Likewise, I think NC, TN and points north will end up below average for Nov. on temps.

The Northeast is torching badly.. The SE ridge while it's not holding strong it does poke it's head around from time to time this month so far. I have temps headed back into the mid 70's for a few days early next week. I thought the transient SE ridge that we have been seeing this month would cause a reversal of the actual temperature departures we have seen. Really an odd looking map for the pattern we are in.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

The Northeast is torching badly.. The SE ridge while it's not holding strong it does poke it's head around from time to time this month so far. I have temps headed back into the mid 70's for a few days early next week. I thought the transient SE ridge that we have been seeing this month would cause a reversal of the actual temperature departures we have seen. Really an odd looking map for the pattern we are in.

Looks like the Ohio Valley is the ones well above normal. That makes sense too since in a strongly amplified flow, the Southeast tends to go lower below normal in the colder spells, than the Northeast does in respect to its own temps. Still the point wasn't who's above normal, its kind of ironic that if the ECMWF was to be believed RDU for example would experience 588 heights on a couple of days which they're not and probably won't anytime soon. Basically I was bashing the ECMWF again. True though, we do have the sw flow at times which sends us up to 70's. Its not really lasting though is it?

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Looks like the Ohio Valley is the ones well above normal. That makes sense too since in a strongly amplified flow, the Southeast tends to go lower below normal in the colder spells, than the Northeast does in respect to its own temps. Still the point wasn't who's above normal, its kind of ironic that if the ECMWF was to be believed RDU for example would experience 588 heights on a couple of days which they're not and probably won't anytime soon. Basically I was bashing the ECMWF again. True though, we do have the sw flow at times which sends us up to 70's. Its not really lasting though is it?

Nope, it sure doesn't last long and hasn't all season... It seems 48 hours is about as long as the really warm air stays around. It really seems like the twilight zone recently with the flip-flop of the GFS and Euro. Didn't both models less than a year ago get "upgrades"? If true I would deduce that the GFS had the better one out of the two.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

Nope, it sure doesn't last long and hasn't all season... It seems 48 hours is about as long as the really warm air stays around. It really seems like the twilight zone recently with the flip-flop of the GFS and Euro. Didn't both models less than a year ago get "upgrades"? If true I would deduce that the GFS had the better one out of the two.

From my memory it seems they both did but I'm not sure. Somebody on here will know for sure. What I do know for sure is that the roles reversed between the two models for some reason right around the new year. Remember when the ECMWF honed in on the Southeast snowstorm of Christmas and never let up. Eventually GFS caught on but it took quite a while. Thats the last really good major event the ECMWF outperformed GFS for our region and generally speaking its been off something wicked at times on quite a few events, ranging from run of the mill weather to big events. It will be interesting to see if it "comes back" in the Winter. In some flows the GFS is way too supressed and we can use other models or ensembles to see that pretty easily.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Looks like the Ohio Valley is the ones well above normal. That makes sense too since in a strongly amplified flow, the Southeast tends to go lower below normal in the colder spells, than the Northeast does in respect to its own temps. Still the point wasn't who's above normal, its kind of ironic that if the ECMWF was to be believed RDU for example would experience 588 heights on a couple of days which they're not and probably won't anytime soon. Basically I was bashing the ECMWF again. True though, we do have the sw flow at times which sends us up to 70's. Its not really lasting though is it?

Robert, great posts and I agree strongly, with maybe even adding that most of the major reporting stations in the SE (ATL, CAE, GSP, CLT, RDU & GSO) will end the month below or at -avg in terms of temp departures. The EC is not what it used to be, maybe in comparison to the upgraded global, maybe some tweaks to the Euro's algorithms from the ec met office, but volatility in the mid-term seems enhanced compared to several years ago, and the age of the Euro guiding the ship over the US is no longer imo despite what the verification scores show. For one, the model appears to have a light finger with cyclogenesis, similar to the GGEM of old often times intensifying systems more-so than what actually verifies. Furthermore, the lack of run-to-run continuity in the 5-7 range at-least over CONUS leaves a great deal to be desired.

The NCEP Global Model Anomaly Correlation scores do not lie though, and while I/we have to scratch our heads at them sometimes, this is the best < day 10 weather model on the planet, GFS a distant second. Granted these scores are not specific to CONUS, but the data suggests the EC is still a "Dr."

Thanksgiving and the ensuing weekend, impacts on sensible weather are starting to become clearer, with small-scale perturbations still to be worked out... Intense storm system ejecting out of SCal will interact with a northern stream parcel over the Great Lakes, genesis likely to occur in or near the middle MS Valley on Tuesday 11/22 before moving offshore in SNE. Phasing of the two parcels takes place too late for most, but SE peeps heading to the Green and Whites for Thanksgiving may want to pack a shovel and camera... Actual phasing of the streams occurs roughly over Lake Erie/OH Valley and while still a positive tilt through the SE, maybe a sever weather threat in AL/MS, and the VA capes as the trough tilts to neg...

Looking forward in the 7-10 and beyond, GoA low may be eroding. This sets the stage for a long wave pattern over the continental US, look for more stout shots of cold air, maybe stronger systems, and a potential ridge popping up over the 4 corners around day 10. No real sign of high-latitude blocking yet, but the flow over the US supports waves of high amplitude, and any piece of southern stream energy has the potential to interact with parcels coming down from the north, maybe a big storm. Folks still need to remember the time of year and while many are hoping for SN, somewhat premature given climo, the lack of blocking (sustained source of cold) support RN and a continued threat of svr wx. :)

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Expecting a low of 30 tonight after a high today of 54. What a perfect fall day :)

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

407 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2011

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...STORM REPORT FOR CALHOUN AND CLARENDON COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONDUCTED STORM

SURVEYS IN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND FOUND WIND DAMAGE AT TWO

LOCATIONS FROM INTENSE MICROBURSTS.

THE FIRST OCCURRED AT BROWNS CHAPEL CHURCH A COUPLE OF MILES EAST

OF CAMERON. A STEEPLE WAS BLOWN OFF AND A COUPLE OF WINDOWS WERE

BROKEN. A FEW TREES WERE ALSO TAKEN DOWN. WINDS WERE ESTIMATED

TO BE 75 MPH.

THE SECOND EVENT OCCURRED IN ALCOLU JUST NORTH OF MANNING. AN

INTENSE MICROBURST DESTROYED A LARGE FRAMED OUTBUILDING, TOOK

SHINGLES AND SOME SIDING OFF A HOME, AND TOOK DOWN MANY TREES.

WINDS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 90 MPH.

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

kinda interesting note on the gfs ens. notice how the low over alaska retrogrades westward towards the aleutians as you go through the loop. that would turn the pacific into a much more favorable position as we head towards december. first time i've seen any hints from the models on changing the pacific setup, long term.

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