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November Disco/Obs II


Isopycnic

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How many people would that take? 4 or 5? :lmao:

Seriously, I think you're right on with the hard freeze tonight. I'm not sure about down in GA where you reside, but I'm already down to 38 over a dewpoint of 23. Mid-20s here I come!!

Hey we got over a 100 grand around here :arrowhead:, not far behind Catawba in pop density. We just don'thave Hickory's skyscrapers yet. LOL. Down to 44 now...heading toward 31 I think.

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40 here after an early high of 61 before dropping to 50 around the mid-afternoon period with winds calming down a good bit. Had to wear thick gloves while I was outside to keep from having my fingers freeze to death. Then again, my hands are always cold for some odd reason. My dad likes to joke around saying that I have no blood running through them. :lol::rolleyes: 29 may be doable for a low here with enough cooling.

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First snow showers of the year fell in Kingsport, TN, today. Sucked up the leaves in my yard. Kind of thankful for all of the wind and rain - knocked off a bunch of leaves. They've been nickle and diming me to death for the last month. The mother load came down today.

It's always amazed me when I would go over there from here in the fall at the difference in how much the leaves have fallen so much more here than there. They've been all down here for @ least a week and a half.

Currently 27 here.

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29 with a heavy frost. It looks like a dusting of snow on the trucktop.

Very heavy frost here also which is making for a beautiful dusting of snow like appearance. Got quite cold this morning, down to 24.7. Don't imagine I'll drop much further being this close to sunrise (plus there is actually a small breeze out there right now) but that's a few degrees colder than I thought I'd be, which was 27 or 28.

You could tell it would be a cold one last evening because for the first time this season there was a winter time feel to the air. I'm not sure how to explain it since the temperature wasn't that cold once it got dark and there has been so many mornings where we have had frost and temps at or below freezing. But there was certainly a different feel and even smell to the air last evening.

I'm surprised to be honest with you we have managed with frost or temps at or below freezing given how crappy the pattern has been the last several weeks.

But you better enjoy it this morning because if you believe the 06z gfs because it looks like a damn nightmare, with warm air as far as the eye could see, not only for us but for the country in general. Even much of southern canada is warmer than normal in the medium to long range. I know it's a bit early to start worrying but man...I'd be lying if I said I wasn't.

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Very heavy frost here also which is making for a beautiful dusting of snow like appearance. Got quite cold this morning, down to 24.7. Don't imagine I'll drop much further being this close to sunrise (plus there is actually a small breeze out there right now) but that's a few degrees colder than I thought I'd be, which was 27 or 28.

You could tell it would be a cold one last evening because for the first time this season there was a winter time feel to the air. I'm not sure how to explain it since the temperature wasn't that cold once it got dark and there has been so many mornings where we have had frost and temps at or below freezing. But there was certainly a different feel and even smell to the air last evening.

I'm surprised to be honest with you we have managed with frost or temps at or below freezing given how crappy the pattern has been the last several weeks.

But you better enjoy it this morning because if you believe the 06z gfs because it looks like a damn nightmare, with warm air as far as the eye could see, not only for us but for the country in general. Even much of southern canada is warmer than normal in the medium to long range. I know it's a bit early to start worrying but man...I'd be lying if I said I wasn't.

28/23 on the drive into town taking the wife to work this am... Another hard frost with just about everything crusted. This was the first night of the season we chose to run the fireplace all night, compared to letting the heat-pump warm the house alone. Usually like to be in the mid-20's, but wanted things a little more toasty than normal considering I am not fully acclimated to this season change just yet. The absence of leaves is what really did it in for me yesterday. After that RN and wind all the trees are stripped, and that along with the brown grass makes it look like winter outside compared to fall.

Unsure what to make of Thanksgiving. Op European seems very volatile in this period with not much run-to-run continuity, so throwing that out for the moment. Its ens mean has been a little more consistent with troughiness over the eastern 1/3 of CONUS, but when comparing to the global and gem, still some major differences. No real evidence of the GoA low going anywhere through day 10, or high latitude blocking taking shape. Frequency of these fronts may increase over the next couple weeks though with some ridging trying to take shape over the intermountian west, but the pattern still looks like transient shots of cold and maybe some RN... Seems pretty normal for late Nov :arrowhead:

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Unsure what to make of Thanksgiving. Op European seems very volatile in this period with not much run-to-run continuity, so throwing that out for the moment. Its ens mean has been a little more consistent with troughiness over the eastern 1/3 of CONUS, but when comparing to the global and gem, still some major differences. No real evidence of the GoA low going anywhere through day 10, or high latitude blocking taking shape. Frequency of these fronts may increase over the next couple weeks though with some ridging trying to take shape over the intermountian west, but the pattern still looks like transient shots of cold and maybe some RN... Seems pretty normal for late Nov :arrowhead:

Good read there and agree, pretty normal for these parts as far as i can remember. i bet in my 39 years i've worn shorts or short-sleeves on Turkey day more than I've bundled up around here. Then by the 2nd week of December it finally sets in.

27.1° currently with big frost...youngin gonna be late for school cause wifey fell back asleep, now Dad trying to save the day!:gun_bandana:

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Frost 27.2 this with heavy frost on the ground. As lookout stated above, looked like an 1" of snow was around.

Forecast high of 56 on Turkey day.. I will take that and run!

Good read there and agree, pretty normal for these parts as far as i can remember. i bet in my 39 years i've worn shorts or short-sleeves on Turkey day more than I've bundled up around here. Then by the 2nd week of December it finally sets in.

27.1° currently with big frost...youngin gonna be late for school cause wifey fell back asleep, now Dad trying to save the day!:gun_bandana:

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But you better enjoy it this morning because if you believe the 06z gfs because it looks like a damn nightmare, with warm air as far as the eye could see, not only for us but for the country in general. Even much of southern canada is warmer than normal in the medium to long range. I know it's a bit early to start worrying but man...I'd be lying if I said I wasn't.

Relax :snowman: I don't bring out the subzero terminology much for around here, but this season might be one of those years we have a real shot. Just judging by how extremely amplified the flow has been getting and how anomolously cold Alaska is right now, when the timing is right, I'd say the interior Southeast has it's best shot in a while of getting that rare temp. reading. La Nina's are known for high amp flow, and if I recall I got down to around 6 degrees mid December 2010.

I've noticed my temp is a little warmer than surrounding sites, yet I know my thermometer is accurate. I think the wet grounds are keeping me a little warmer. Ground here is soaked and has been pretty wet, more often than not, for a long time now. Can't complain about that though!

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First guess: Breaking Dawn?

Second guess: You hang out at movie theaters overnight :P

Already knocking on freezing here. 34º. Wouldn't surprise me to see mid 20's by morning now that the wind is completely calm. :)

Haha yeah, but I'm not one of those creepy Twilight Moms swooning over a wolf or vampire! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

There was a light covering of frost on the car when we came out of the theater a little after 2am.

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28/23 on the drive into town taking the wife to work this am... Another hard frost with just about everything crusted. This was the first night of the season we choose to run the fireplace all night, compared to letting the heat-pump warm the house alone. Usually like to be in the mid-20's, but wanted things a little more toasty than normal considering I am not fully acclimated to this season change just yet. The absence of leaves is what really did it in for me yesterday. After that RN and wind all the trees are stripped, and that along with the brown grass makes it look like winter outside compared to fall.

Unsure what to make of Thanksgiving. Op European seems very volatile in this period with not much run-to-run continuity, so throwing that out for the moment. Its ens mean has been a little more consistent with troughiness over the eastern 1/3 of CONUS, but when comparing to the global and gem, still some major differences. No real evidence of the GoA low going anywhere through day 10, or high latitude blocking taking shape. Frequency of these fronts may increase over the next couple weeks though with some ridging trying to take shape over the intermountian west, but the pattern still looks like transient shots of cold and maybe some RN... Seems pretty normal for late Nov :arrowhead:

As for the temps/pattern, I was mainly referring to the country/north america as a whole. I don't like seeing the persistence of such mild air over such large portions of the country/north america for so long.

You are right, warm temps this time of year is nothing out of the ordinary for us. However, as I mentioned before, Larry in the past has made a good case that odds for a good winter are higher if we have a cold/colder november. It's still early but assuming the models are correct, this november will be warmer than average.

I'm not trying to sound like a weenie, or even worse..JI :axe: because I've always hated people who freak out over it not being 20 below by thanksgiving..but it's hard for me to ignore certain things I'm seeing.

*Edit: I just looked up athen's departure to date and was surprised to see it 1.1 degrees below normal so far. So maybe it won't be way way above normal in the end which is a good thing I would assume if you believe in climo stats/analogs as a means to forecast winter*

Of course, it only takes 1 or 2 storms to make it a good winter season for us ..well at least Georgia because NC folks seem to have a higher standard than us georgia folks..and sort of for good reason since nc normally gets a good deal more winter weather than us.

Anywho, I think this is the 3rd night I've built a fire. This was the first time it truly felt like I should have though with the other 2 times more out of wanting to make it feel like the cold season lol

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