burgertime Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Well the 12z is saying we're close. way out in fantasy land but it's fun to see the GFS starting up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 360 and 384 hr have a decent setup for a snowstorm in the southern Apps and close call in TN Valley and damming regions for a mix. No need to discuss much since its so far out. The big thing is just how often we will keep getting precip events to come through the Southeast. The exiting system wasn't shown too well but I was on guard for a decent even since the sw low had to get ejected out and the Bermuda ridge steered it right to us, and we will repeat this kind of pattern a couple more times in the 10 day. The pattern looks to go toward a Spring like one, with sharp changes and 2 Cut-offs or very deep troughs in the East, despite the ensembles being wrong a good bit lately with torching Southeast. We have a tendency to sharpen up ejecting s/w in the zonal flow, with good rain coverage in Ok, Mo and points east, and unfortunately a good chance at more severe weather is coming up for the same general areas, so we're probably not done with tornadoes and severe outbreaks. Now that colder air can get involved, snow on the backside is possible (like now) and once one of these closes off deeply and far south, some areas outside the mountains could see snow later this month. Definitely not a boring dry pattern. Its been a very wet year here, despite a pretty strong Nina...almost as good as most Nino's . This rain event was 1.92" and some parts of the county are now 50" on the year, very close to mby. Given the 12z and it's wonky 850 at the 200+ map do you think the Euro might of caught something last night and now the GFS is also seeing that. I haven't seen the Euro map yet but at 216 the GFS looks like it might be snow on the backside for TN...just an odd look. Are the models just having a hard time with the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Given the 12z and it's wonky 850 at the 200+ map do you think the Euro might of caught something last night and now the GFS is also seeing that. I haven't seen the Euro map yet but at 216 the GFS looks like it might be snow on the backside for TN...just an odd look. Are the models just having a hard time with the pattern? Looks like an ULL... If temps are cool enough near the surface interesting things could happen under it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Looks like an ULL... If temps are cool enough near the surface interesting things could happen under it.... True that, March 09 and then last years ULL really over performed for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Given the 12z and it's wonky 850 at the 200+ map do you think the Euro might of caught something last night and now the GFS is also seeing that. I haven't seen the Euro map yet but at 216 the GFS looks like it might be snow on the backside for TN...just an odd look. Are the models just having a hard time with the pattern? The models are having a harder time than usual , we're still in a strong flow with tendency to go to extreme amplification and the GFS began showing this a couple days now ECMWF is on board (timing issues between them) but bottom line is we probably will have a tendency to go for major troughing or cutoffs somewhere in the East or southern US pretty soon. This teleconnects well with the strong Vortex in Alaska which is basically stay put and may drop toward the central Pacific, in which case would really amp up the PNA out west and put a longwave in the East somewhere. I was for this all along, and didn't trust the ensembles or operationals when they had the Southeast in a torch ridge (588dm) right about now into the second half of November. Thats obviously not going to happen now. Just a few days ago a lot of folks were freaking out about the end of November thinking well above normal and dry, all because of direct model outputs. And now we have 2 major deep troughs likely to end the month. The key component to keep in mind here is just how energetic the flow is globally. Its well above normal and I've been noticing this for about 6 weeks now. No end in sight or even a slow down yet. All the strong s/w are in conflict with what the northern hemisphere averages are right now, so the models can't handle the flow well , especially when it looks benign and zonal. When the models and ensembles have for example , a 10 day map showing southeast ridging, but the teleconnections and pattern support troughing, you have to hunt why. Then by the next run, the models show a day 8 or 9 prog as "zonal" in the Southeast. Then the next day the run has a s/w ejecting due east , then the next days prog is heading toward a strong s/w or longwave, or negative tilt trough in the Southeast, all this continues to happen, and will keep on. So, take the 10 day as always with major salt blocks and look for teleconnections and patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Wound up with a storm total of 3.18" . As far as snow; only snowshowers in the valley this morn. with some lt accs higher up. The cam at Uva Wise showed a good covering there earlier. Here's a link in case anyone wants to check it out sometime. There's still a little on the grass. http://www.mcs.uvawise.edu/webcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The models are having a harder time than usual , we're still in a strong flow with tendency to go to extreme amplification and the GFS began showing this a couple days now ECMWF is on board (timing issues between them) but bottom line is we probably will have a tendency to go for major troughing or cutoffs somewhere in the East or southern US pretty soon. This teleconnects well with the strong Vortex in Alaska which is basically stay put and may drop toward the central Pacific, in which case would really amp up the PNA out west and put a longwave in the East somewhere. I was for this all along, and didn't trust the ensembles or operationals when they had the Southeast in a torch ridge (588dm) right about now into the second half of November. Thats obviously not going to happen now. Just a few days ago a lot of folks were freaking out about the end of November thinking well above normal and dry, all because of direct model outputs. And now we have 2 major deep troughs likely to end the month. The key component to keep in mind here is just how energetic the flow is globally. Its well above normal and I've been noticing this for about 6 weeks now. No end in sight or even a slow down yet. All the strong s/w are in conflict with what the northern hemisphere averages are right now, so the models can't handle the flow well , especially when it looks benign and zonal. When the models and ensembles have for example , a 10 day map showing southeast ridging, but the teleconnections and pattern support troughing, you have to hunt why. Then by the next run, the models show a day 8 or 9 prog as "zonal" in the Southeast. Then the next day the run has a s/w ejecting due east , then the next days prog is heading toward a strong s/w or longwave, or negative tilt trough in the Southeast, all this continues to happen, and will keep on. So, take the 10 day as always with major salt blocks and look for teleconnections and patterns. That you have Robert, and deserve a big KUDOS as most of us, including Mets, were not really paying much attention to this. We're going to have to revere you like E.F. Hutton from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 30 degrees with a persistent snow/sleet mixture. It's starting to accumulate on the cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 amazing turn around from the past couple of days.... check out Charlie's up at Beech Mtn. http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/webcameras_Beech_Charlies.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 30 degrees with a persistent snow/sleet mixture. It's starting to accumulate on the cars. Looking at Knoxville radar you might see heavy bands move into the region in the next hr or so. Beech is looking quite white! Im going to fire up the snow gun again tonight as we dip below 27. You dang Boone folks get enough natural where as us Cullowheeians must make our own, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The pattern still looks progressive, but this is a cold look at 240 for the eastern US. New Euro at 240: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The pattern still looks progressive, but this is a cold look at 240 for the eastern US. New Euro at 240: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Yep. It's showing quite a cold air mass pushing well south. The Euro is suggesting some -10 to -12 values. Quite cold indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyredog28 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Confirmed EF-1 in Pittsylvania Co., Va .TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR JUST SOUTH OF DRY FORK IN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA...LOCATION...JUST SOUTH OF DRY FORK IN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA DATE...NOVEMBER 16 2011 ESTIMATED START TIME...06:55 PM EST ESTIMATED END TIME.....06:58 PM ES TMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...100 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...125 YARDS PATH LENGTH...INTERMITTENTLY 2.3 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LONG...36.725N / 79.427W ENDING LAT/LONG......36.732N / 79.381W* FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 http://www.erh.noaa....11PittCoTor.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 That you have Robert, and deserve a big KUDOS as most of us, including Mets, were not really paying much attention to this. We're going to have to revere you like E.F. Hutton from now on. thanks but just noticing subtle things in the pattern. Like noted above, the ECMWF now drops a trough, pretty deep into the East by day 10. I think it will play out such that a couple of decent troughs and maybe one big closed low develops "somewhere". Can't say where yet, or even if certain. There is a ton of cold air in northwest Canada and Alaska and some of this will seep into the states via one of these amplified troughs. But nothing is locked in for us yet, so its a pretty fun pattern to watch, with plenty of changes every few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Check out the snowcaps on the smokies. That's Thunderhead on the right center and Leconte off in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 O.O Too bad it's at 384 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 O.O Too bad it's at 384 hours Are you trying to make my mouth water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 O.O Too bad it's at 384 hours I wondered how long it would be until someone invoked the "goofy, just for fun" snow maps. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Just got home from work. Man it is a cold blustry day in Weaverville! Never made it back to 40 after falling this am. On & off snow showers here today. Gonna be a good night for coffee & a fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 O.O Too bad it's at 384 hours And so it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 thanks but just noticing subtle things in the pattern. Like noted above, the ECMWF now drops a trough, pretty deep into the East by day 10. I think it will play out such that a couple of decent troughs and maybe one big closed low develops "somewhere". Can't say where yet, or even if certain. There is a ton of cold air in northwest Canada and Alaska and some of this will seep into the states via one of these amplified troughs. But nothing is locked in for us yet, so its a pretty fun pattern to watch, with plenty of changes every few days. It has been fun to watch the model madness unfold O.O Too bad it's at 384 hours :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 The euro is advertising thanksgiving to be a pretty chilly day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 thanks but just noticing subtle things in the pattern. Like noted above, the ECMWF now drops a trough, pretty deep into the East by day 10. I think it will play out such that a couple of decent troughs and maybe one big closed low develops "somewhere". Can't say where yet, or even if certain. There is a ton of cold air in northwest Canada and Alaska and some of this will seep into the states via one of these amplified troughs. But nothing is locked in for us yet, so its a pretty fun pattern to watch, with plenty of changes every few days. Hey, man, how come we can't get your long range pinned? You want us to come occupy Shelby? We would you know I'm looking at a good chance of a hard freeze tonight, if it stays down long enough. A far cry from, and a much appreciated change from the soupy heated, dangerous, energy provider of the last few days down here. 48.9 at 6 beats 72 or 3 every time. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Anyone else feeling the wind chill tonight? Quiet a difference from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 That is all I ask for in this month. Well, that and the signs of a pattern change The euro is advertising thanksgiving to be a pretty chilly day No doubt man! The wind was kicking this afternoon during my run. Had to wear the old boggin ! Anyone else feeling the wind chill tonight? Quiet a difference from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 27.6...wind chill is a delightful 14. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Hey, man, how come we can't get your long range pinned? You want us to come occupy Shelby? We would you know I'm looking at a good chance of a hard freeze tonight, if it stays down long enough. A far cry from, and a much appreciated change from the soupy heated, dangerous, energy provider of the last few days down here. 48.9 at 6 beats 72 or 3 every time. T ha ha, you're hilarious T. I don't have a long range to pin. You just made me realize we haven't had sleet yet. Normally sometime in November I see a little bit of your favorite precip, but the month's not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Here are some great looking pictures of this morning's snow around the area: http://www.wcyb.com/slideshow/weather/26106111/detail.html Temp is at 32 degrees already this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Yep, lots of times I'll see a few pellets in late Nov. or early Dec. And sometimes that's my quota of frozen stuff for the year, lol Well, what do you call this? And Hawksfan has one that also needs attention, and Gaston. My Winter Outlook 2011-2012 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/27536-my-winter-outlook-2011-2012/ '> http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/27536-my-winter-outlook-2011-2012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Hey, man, how come we can't get your long range pinned? You want us to come occupy Shelby? We would you know I'm looking at a good chance of a hard freeze tonight, if it stays down long enough. A far cry from, and a much appreciated change from the soupy heated, dangerous, energy provider of the last few days down here. 48.9 at 6 beats 72 or 3 every time. T How many people would that take? 4 or 5? Seriously, I think you're right on with the hard freeze tonight. I'm not sure about down in GA where you reside, but I'm already down to 38 over a dewpoint of 23. Mid-20s here I come!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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