ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 12z GFS next week has some really cold air funneling in to most of the US after about 200 hours. It sticks around for the rest of the run. Also looks to kick the cut-off low back to the SW out a little quicker. Looks like Dec 5-7 is our next best chance for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I think this thread needs to be re-titled cold, seasonal, cold after looking at the next few days and into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The Euro looks interesting for next week. It has a similar setup like this storm. System moving across the south with a cutoff just behind it in forming in TX..meanwhile there is cooler air along northern portions of NC. It's LR and hard to predict what could happen next but given the GFS as well next week will be something to keep our eyes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Better looking than a few weeks ago. The Euro looks interesting for next week. It has a similar setup like this storm. System moving across the south with a cutoff just behind it in forming in TX..meanwhile there is cooler air along northern portions of NC. It's LR and hard to predict what could happen next but given the GFS as well next week will be something to keep our eyes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The Euro looks interesting for next week. It has a similar setup like this storm. System moving across the south with a cutoff just behind it in forming in TX..meanwhile there is cooler air along northern portions of NC. It's LR and hard to predict what could happen next but given the GFS as well next week will be something to keep our eyes on. Yep, we're still going to have a heck of a time with the pattern . Both models have a strong southwest cutoff, but ECMWF allows it come out very late toward day 9 or 10,(actually shows strong damming setup) but the GFS brings it on out and then uses it to pull down a major cold outbreak. Hard to say which is closer, but neither probably is. I lean toward the GFS but that model is shearing the southwest low as it goest up the Midwest or Ohio Valley, but I think theres a good chance that it holds nicely and actually forms a pretty big snowstorm for the Plains and corn belt to Lakes, then the cold air comes out. But by then, yet another cutoff is near the Pacific northwest and we will watch that closesly. There's a ton of stuff going on, and it's very exciting to watch! The overall generality we can all probably agree on is the building PNA flow, which may end up still being a fun pattern. Seems like despite everything so far this Fall that can be construed as a negative, we keep on having big events. On a couple of runs the GFS and ECMWF have had an enormous western ridge, so the amplified pattern is likely to keep on happening. I still think major to historic events are in the future between the Plains and Apps region. As of now I'm ready for a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The gfs has had the system at day 10 for a few days now and the euro just picked it up. Will be interested to watch, but if the PNA really rises to the levels of the euro/gfs projections -- which we haven't seen in several years -- then it's possible a split-flow scenario could develop out west which is generally what leads to overrunning/cad events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nothing except a few light rain showers. Disappointed in this system so far. My only hope is looking at the water vapor loop and seeing the atmosphere getting more saturated to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Temps in the upper 70's, nice breeze, windows open, power bill lower than its been in months cause I havent used any heat cant really complain. Dont really need rain here and with the threat of severe storms waning I am very ho hum about this "event" here. Looks like the rest of the week will be seasonable though and maybe hunting this weekend will finally be one without mosquitos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Certainly didn't expect to see starry skies and a crescent moon this evening. It's gotten a little more breezy during the course of late afternoon and night, with just a couple quick sprinkles scattered in. Hoping to get in a decent rain sometime overnight/early morning. I'm still about 9.5" below average for the year, with 31.45" collected so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The gfs has had the system at day 10 for a few days now and the euro just picked it up. Will be interested to watch, but if the PNA really rises to the levels of the euro/gfs projections -- which we haven't seen in several years -- then it's possible a split-flow scenario could develop out west which is generally what leads to overrunning/cad events. Miller B Time: Got a feeling the majority of my winter weather excitement this season is gonna come from overruning events whcih usally has me caught in precip type transition zones. I'll take winter weather any way shape or form I can get it, but make no mistake nothing beats all snow. Just looking at the raging AO is a debbie downer after being spoiled by it the past 2 seasons. But there are other ways / pattern setups that can produce. So maybe the X's and O's will line up right for this year just using a different formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 How did I miss all of this? Good luck on the snow all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Miller B Time: Got a feeling the majority of my winter weather excitement this season is gonna come from overruning events whcih usally has me caught in precip type transition zones. I'll take winter weather any way shape or form I can get it, but make no mistake nothing beats all snow. Just looking at the raging AO is a debbie downer after being spoiled by it the past 2 seasons. But there are other ways / pattern setups that can produce. So maybe the X's and O's will line up right for this year just using a different formation. Thing about is come Jan 1, We'll still be sitting here trying to figure out a way to get a winter storm this winter... This will be the year the +NAO and +AO steals Christmas winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Thing about is come Jan 1, We'll still be sitting here trying to figure out a way to get a winter storm this winter... This will be the year the +NAO and +AO steals Christmas winter..... :lightning:a couple inches already tonight in part of Al, and Tn..and it's not even Winter. The October Appalachian and New England storm was record setting too. You're giving up because the indicies aren't lining up? You better hope they don't , seems like snow and wild storms are happening anyway. If the strong cutoffs continue, you could easily get in on a big one. Granted you have to be pretty much in the best spot relative to the storm and how it evolves, like this one favored western TN, and Ms, Al and eventually n. GA. Oh, and you'll probably get a few flakes tomorrow night. Winter cancel, uncancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 :lightning:a couple inches already tonight in part of Al, and Tn..and it's not even Winter. The October Appalachian and New England storm was record setting too. You're giving up because the indicies aren't lining up? You better hope they don't , seems like snow and wild storms are happening anyway. If the strong cutoffs continue, you could easily get in on a big one. Granted you have to be pretty much in the best spot relative to the storm and how it evolves, like this one favored western TN, and Ms, Al and eventually n. GA. Oh, and you'll probably get a few flakes tomorrow night. Winter cancel, uncancel lol, I'm turning into a pessimist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Today looks to be a chilly day with a High of only 58 and windy also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I've got ice in certain areas where the water never dried, including all over the cars and even a couple of frozen puddles. 32 right now. http://gwxmanblog.bl...region-dry.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 lol, I'm turning into a pessimist! JI and Brick all in one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 JI and Brick all in one! We'll see who's the brick come march!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Looks like CAE will end the month with 1.68 in the bucket, that is .97 below normal for November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Gonna be a cold one tonight. Already down to 31.9 at 740pm. Brrr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Looks like CAE will end the month with 1.68 in the bucket, that is .97 below normal for November. Wow. I had a wet month with 6.22 total. My backyard is still squishy in some of the low spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Returned last evening from eight days in South Florida. My rain gauge had over 5", and Otter Creek below my house was a torrent. That's over 10" for November. I hate that I missed all the excitement. Here is a shot of the Black Mountains and Mt. Mitchell that I made this afternoon from a ridge just west of Rutherfordton. Snow and clouds created quite a contrast from the 51 degree foothills. Right now, it's 29 degrees here, there's already ice on the deck, and this will be my coldest night of the season. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Ellis Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 27 degrees here and falling. Hoping we will beat that 19 we had a few weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 There was above normal rains again this month around here. GSP 4.39", CLT 3.34", AVL 5.32". So it's been a pretty wet meteorological Fall, with Sept 8.48" Oct 2.79" Nov 4.68".Now that we're in the time of year for low evaporation rates, the ground stays soggy. Since late last Winter, around February, it's been the best run on precipitation in quite a few years, maybe going back to the wet period of late 2002 through 2003. Very unusual in a Nina. I can see just to my south lurking in GA to central SC it hasn't been as good. In fact, around Atlanta, pretty gaping hole is representative of some serious dryness there.... -13.29" for the year. Last 90 days; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 There was above normal rains again this month around here. GSP 4.39", CLT 3.34", AVL 5.32". So it's been a pretty wet meteorological Fall, with Sept 8.48" Oct 2.79" Nov 4.68".Now that we're in the time of year for low evaporation rates, the ground stays soggy. Since late last Winter, around February, it's been the best run on precipitation in quite a few years, maybe going back to the wet period of late 2002 through 2003. Very unusual in a Nina. I can see just to my south lurking in GA to central SC it hasn't been as good. Last 90 days; you are right. The ground is like mush. Not drying out at all. A cool 29 degrees this morning here. Need ice or snow buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 you are right. The ground is like mush. Not drying out at all. A cool 29 degrees this morning here. Need ice or snow buddy If we can't go sledding maybe we can go 4 wheeling! I see the snowman has started his meltdown already. The winter of 86' - 87' was warm in DEC. Then the 1st week of Jan the snow started coming down about every 5 to 7 days for about a month to month and half, was a Freshman in HS and will never forget it. So hang in there guys it can flip on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 For November, GSP was 1.7 above the average on high temps, 1.4 above on the lows. CLT should be similar... Not exactly a blasting warm month around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 For November, GSP was 1.7 above the average on high temps, 1.4 above on the lows. CLT should be similar... Not exactly a blasting warm month around here. Ya looking back at my high and lows last month there was lots of ups and downs. Our highest high was 70 degrees and our lowest low was 18 degrees with two different times we saw some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Ellis Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Got down to 24 last night, 4 degrees colder than last year. Everything was iced up outside, had to break out my ice scraper so I could leave the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 There was above normal rains again this month around here. GSP 4.39", CLT 3.34", AVL 5.32". So it's been a pretty wet meteorological Fall, with Sept 8.48" Oct 2.79" Nov 4.68".Now that we're in the time of year for low evaporation rates, the ground stays soggy. Since late last Winter, around February, it's been the best run on precipitation in quite a few years, maybe going back to the wet period of late 2002 through 2003. Very unusual in a Nina. I can see just to my south lurking in GA to central SC it hasn't been as good. In fact, around Atlanta, pretty gaping hole is representative of some serious dryness there.... -13.29" for the year. Last 90 days; Be interesting to see what the map looks like once TS Lee drifts off the 90 day scope here in a couple of days. The last 60 days look more La Nina like.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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