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November Disco/Obs II


Isopycnic

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The Euro looks interesting for next week. It has a similar setup like this storm. System moving across the south with a cutoff just behind it in forming in TX..meanwhile there is cooler air along northern portions of NC. It's LR and hard to predict what could happen next but given the GFS as well next week will be something to keep our eyes on.

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Better looking than a few weeks ago.

The Euro looks interesting for next week. It has a similar setup like this storm. System moving across the south with a cutoff just behind it in forming in TX..meanwhile there is cooler air along northern portions of NC. It's LR and hard to predict what could happen next but given the GFS as well next week will be something to keep our eyes on.

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The Euro looks interesting for next week. It has a similar setup like this storm. System moving across the south with a cutoff just behind it in forming in TX..meanwhile there is cooler air along northern portions of NC. It's LR and hard to predict what could happen next but given the GFS as well next week will be something to keep our eyes on.

Yep, we're still going to have a heck of a time with the pattern . Both models have a strong southwest cutoff, but ECMWF allows it come out very late toward day 9 or 10,(actually shows strong damming setup) but the GFS brings it on out and then uses it to pull down a major cold outbreak. Hard to say which is closer, but neither probably is. I lean toward the GFS but that model is shearing the southwest low as it goest up the Midwest or Ohio Valley, but I think theres a good chance that it holds nicely and actually forms a pretty big snowstorm for the Plains and corn belt to Lakes, then the cold air comes out. But by then, yet another cutoff is near the Pacific northwest and we will watch that closesly. There's a ton of stuff going on, and it's very exciting to watch! The overall generality we can all probably agree on is the building PNA flow, which may end up still being a fun pattern. Seems like despite everything so far this Fall that can be construed as a negative, we keep on having big events. On a couple of runs the GFS and ECMWF have had an enormous western ridge, so the amplified pattern is likely to keep on happening. I still think major to historic events are in the future between the Plains and Apps region. As of now I'm ready for a break.

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The gfs has had the system at day 10 for a few days now and the euro just picked it up. Will be interested to watch, but if the PNA really rises to the levels of the euro/gfs projections -- which we haven't seen in several years -- then it's possible a split-flow scenario could develop out west which is generally what leads to overrunning/cad events.

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Temps in the upper 70's, nice breeze, windows open, power bill lower than its been in months cause I havent used any heat cant really complain. Dont really need rain here and with the threat of severe storms waning I am very ho hum about this "event" here. Looks like the rest of the week will be seasonable though and maybe hunting this weekend will finally be one without mosquitos.

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Certainly didn't expect to see starry skies and a crescent moon this evening. It's gotten a little more breezy during the course of late afternoon and night, with just a couple quick sprinkles scattered in. Hoping to get in a decent rain sometime overnight/early morning. I'm still about 9.5" below average for the year, with 31.45" collected so far.

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The gfs has had the system at day 10 for a few days now and the euro just picked it up. Will be interested to watch, but if the PNA really rises to the levels of the euro/gfs projections -- which we haven't seen in several years -- then it's possible a split-flow scenario could develop out west which is generally what leads to overrunning/cad events.

Miller B Time: Got a feeling the majority of my winter weather excitement this season is gonna come from overruning events whcih usally has me caught in precip type transition zones. I'll take winter weather any way shape or form I can get it, but make no mistake nothing beats all snow. Just looking at the raging AO is a debbie downer after being spoiled by it the past 2 seasons. But there are other ways / pattern setups that can produce. So maybe the X's and O's will line up right for this year just using a different formation.

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Miller B Time: Got a feeling the majority of my winter weather excitement this season is gonna come from overruning events whcih usally has me caught in precip type transition zones. I'll take winter weather any way shape or form I can get it, but make no mistake nothing beats all snow. Just looking at the raging AO is a debbie downer after being spoiled by it the past 2 seasons. But there are other ways / pattern setups that can produce. So maybe the X's and O's will line up right for this year just using a different formation.

Thing about is come Jan 1, We'll still be sitting here trying to figure out a way to get a winter storm this winter... :thumbsdown: This will be the year the +NAO and +AO steals Christmas winter.....

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Thing about is come Jan 1, We'll still be sitting here trying to figure out a way to get a winter storm this winter... :thumbsdown: This will be the year the +NAO and +AO steals Christmas winter.....

:lightning:a couple inches already tonight in part of Al, and Tn..and it's not even Winter. The October Appalachian and New England storm was record setting too. You're giving up because the indicies aren't lining up? You better hope they don't , seems like snow and wild storms are happening anyway. If the strong cutoffs continue, you could easily get in on a big one. Granted you have to be pretty much in the best spot relative to the storm and how it evolves, like this one favored western TN, and Ms, Al and eventually n. GA. Oh, and you'll probably get a few flakes tomorrow night. Winter cancel, uncancel :snowman:

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:lightning:a couple inches already tonight in part of Al, and Tn..and it's not even Winter. The October Appalachian and New England storm was record setting too. You're giving up because the indicies aren't lining up? You better hope they don't , seems like snow and wild storms are happening anyway. If the strong cutoffs continue, you could easily get in on a big one. Granted you have to be pretty much in the best spot relative to the storm and how it evolves, like this one favored western TN, and Ms, Al and eventually n. GA. Oh, and you'll probably get a few flakes tomorrow night. Winter cancel, uncancel :snowman:

lol, I'm turning into a pessimist!

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Returned last evening from eight days in South Florida. My rain gauge had over 5", and Otter Creek below my house was a torrent. That's over 10" for November. I hate that I missed all the excitement. Here is a shot of the Black Mountains and Mt. Mitchell that I made this afternoon from a ridge just west of Rutherfordton. Snow and clouds created quite a contrast from the 51 degree foothills. Right now, it's 29 degrees here, there's already ice on the deck, and this will be my coldest night of the season. Bring it on!

post-1004-0-97205200-1322710029.jpg

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There was above normal rains again this month around here. GSP 4.39", CLT 3.34", AVL 5.32". So it's been a pretty wet meteorological Fall, with Sept 8.48" Oct 2.79" Nov 4.68".Now that we're in the time of year for low evaporation rates, the ground stays soggy. Since late last Winter, around February, it's been the best run on precipitation in quite a few years, maybe going back to the wet period of late 2002 through 2003. Very unusual in a Nina. I can see just to my south lurking in GA to central SC it hasn't been as good. In fact, around Atlanta, pretty gaping hole is representative of some serious dryness there.... -13.29" for the year.

Last 90 days;

post-38-0-94725300-1322737840.jpg

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There was above normal rains again this month around here. GSP 4.39", CLT 3.34", AVL 5.32". So it's been a pretty wet meteorological Fall, with Sept 8.48" Oct 2.79" Nov 4.68".Now that we're in the time of year for low evaporation rates, the ground stays soggy. Since late last Winter, around February, it's been the best run on precipitation in quite a few years, maybe going back to the wet period of late 2002 through 2003. Very unusual in a Nina. I can see just to my south lurking in GA to central SC it hasn't been as good.

Last 90 days;

post-38-0-94725300-1322737840.jpg

you are right. The ground is like mush. Not drying out at all. A cool 29 degrees this morning here. Need ice or snow buddy thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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you are right. The ground is like mush. Not drying out at all. A cool 29 degrees this morning here. Need ice or snow buddy thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

If we can't go sledding maybe we can go 4 wheeling!

I see the snowmanSnowman.gif has started his meltdown already.

The winter of 86' - 87' was warm in DEC. Then the 1st week of Jan the snow started coming down about every 5 to 7 days for about a month to month and half, was a Freshman in HS and will never forget it. So hang in there guys it can flip on a dime.

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For November, GSP was 1.7 above the average on high temps, 1.4 above on the lows. CLT should be similar... Not exactly a blasting warm month around here.

Ya looking back at my high and lows last month there was lots of ups and downs. Our highest high was 70 degrees and our lowest low was 18 degrees with two different times we saw some light snow.

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There was above normal rains again this month around here. GSP 4.39", CLT 3.34", AVL 5.32". So it's been a pretty wet meteorological Fall, with Sept 8.48" Oct 2.79" Nov 4.68".Now that we're in the time of year for low evaporation rates, the ground stays soggy. Since late last Winter, around February, it's been the best run on precipitation in quite a few years, maybe going back to the wet period of late 2002 through 2003. Very unusual in a Nina. I can see just to my south lurking in GA to central SC it hasn't been as good. In fact, around Atlanta, pretty gaping hole is representative of some serious dryness there.... -13.29" for the year.

Last 90 days;

post-38-0-94725300-1322737840.jpg

Be interesting to see what the map looks like once TS Lee drifts off the 90 day scope here in a couple of days. The last 60 days look more La Nina like....

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