ncjoaquin Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Like when you quit posting due to snow deprivation I was sooo happy when you got walloped and finally returned....I missed your wintertime banter Your memory is too good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Your memory is too good!! Oh yeah I remember that promise too. I think WOW is laying low until a foot storm hits Statesville. I think others will be chiming in this Winter pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Ens member of the day brought to you by the 18z GFS Period around 12/1-12/2 may have to be watched, couple rumblings of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Your memory is too good!! I hope you never do that again Currently it's 46 degrees after a high of 67. What a beautiful Thanksgiving day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 How much do you have year to date? Seems like every time we both post our totals you are always above me. So far this year I have 51.34 (which surprises me, seeing as how dry it is and how low my pond is). 47.97" so far for the year so you are kicking my butt in that department. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 I've seen enough cold and the snow the last couple Winters to last me a while. You can keep all that stuff. send it all tom then. I have 8 truck plows ready for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 FFC Forecast??? Monday: Sunny, with a high near 50. Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 I've seen enough cold and the snow the last couple Winters to last me a while. You can keep all that stuff. Has someone kidnapped the real robert and replaced him with an anti snow/ice clone?? Can't believe what I'm hearing. Seriously my mouth was open reading this comment and your others. Sure would never have suspected to hear such words from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Has someone kidnapped the real robert and replaced him with an anti snow/ice clone?? Can't believe what I'm hearing. Seriously my mouth was open reading this comment and your others. Sure would never have suspected to hear such words from you haha, well I'm not really anti-snow ice so I don't want to be coming off quite that way, but I can live without it ok for a while. I enjoy a good snowfall as much as anybody but I'm definitely eager for it to disappear the next day. And I'm feeling this way more and more the last couple of years. The fun though is always the chase up to it. Thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Us mountain High Country folks like snow. Send everything down in the Piedmont and Foothills up our way! The slopes are bare and the ski operators are taking a hurting real back by missing out on opening this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 haha, well I'm not really anti-snow ice so I don't want to be coming off quite that way, but I can live without it ok for a while. I enjoy a good snowfall as much as anybody but I'm definitely eager for it to disappear the next day. And I'm feeling this way more and more the last couple of years. The fun though is always the chase up to it. Thats all. Then you are doing it wrong, because the chase is only half of the fun I think me and Tony need to kidnap you and make you remember what having fun in the snow/sleet is all about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Us mountain High Country folks like snow. Send everything down in the Piedmont and Foothills up our way! The slopes are bare and the ski operators are taking a hurting real back by missing out on opening this week. there's not much to send up your way , from here, except water. Looks like the mountains are going to have a wet Sunday night for sure if the GFS is close,and if the GGEM is right even more rain the next day or two. But they'll make up for with the colder air on the backside + snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 haha, well I'm not really anti-snow ice so I don't want to be coming off quite that way, but I can live without it ok for a while. I enjoy a good snowfall as much as anybody but I'm definitely eager for it to disappear the next day. And I'm feeling this way more and more the last couple of years. The fun though is always the chase up to it. Thats all. Yeah it's age. We are becoming like the dog that chases cars. When you catch one, what then? I've also noticed a drop in my excitement over impending snows that coincided with my retirement from public education. Every day is a snow day now so it's not as much of a big deal. Still enjoy them though and will pull an all nighter without much thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Then you are doing it wrong, because the chase is only half of the fun I think me and Tony need to kidnap you and make you remember what having fun in the snow/sleet is all about More power to ya'll LOL. I love to follow it and enjoy the first half of the event when it starts. Maybe right up until the end, but usually by then I'm zonked and just crash. So you can't enjoy it that way, huh? Its happened every single storm now since march 2009. I guess the best snows might still be the big surprise ones, that way you can enjoy it fully. I remember a few good ones that way (Jan 2003 for ex.) Still, i'm all ready for the melting to begin right after Yeah it's age. We are becoming like the dog that chases cars. When you catch one, what then? I've also noticed a drop in my excitement over impending snows that coincided with my retirement from public education. Every day is a snow day now so it's not as much of a big deal. Still enjoy them though and will pull an all nighter without much thought. very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 More power to ya'll LOL. I love to follow it and enjoy the first half of the event when it starts. Maybe right up until the end, but usually by then I'm zonked and just crash. So you can't enjoy it that way, huh? Its happened every single storm now since march 2009. I guess the best snows might still be the big surprise ones, that way you can enjoy it fully. I remember a few good ones that way (Jan 2003 for ex.) Still, i'm all ready for the melting to begin right after very true. Sounds like you need more naps I enjoy it all...the tracking, snow/sleet/ice falling, then playing in it until it's gone. I do find myself taking more power naps when it gets active, so maybe that helps. I am liking the long range temps and more chances of rain goofy keeps showing FCST HourValid TimeMax TempMin TempTd10m Wind mph850mb Wind mphTotal Precip(")Conv. Precip(")500-1000 THKNS500mb Height850mb Temp °C500mb Temp °CMSLP mbTotal Cloud Cover192 Sat 12/03 12Z 41 °38 °22 ° NE 7 WNW 2 0.000.00 5515764 °-14 °1031 32 % 204 Sun 12/04 00Z 51 °37 °26 ° ENE 4 WSW 7 0.000.00 5515754 °-15 °1029 18 % 216 Sun 12/04 12Z 42 °35 °24 ° E 4 SSW 11 0.000.00 5525746 °-14 °1026 14 % 228 Mon 12/05 00Z 55 °37 °42 ° ESE 4 SSW 31 0.010.00 5575758 °-13 °1021 50 % 240 Mon 12/05 12Z 56 °49 °45 ° S 11 SW 38 0.120.01 55957210 °-14 °1015 94 % 252 Tue 12/06 00Z 65 °54 °55 ° W 7 WSW 29 0.330.04 5585709 °-15 °1015 83 % 264 Tue 12/06 12Z 56 °36 °49 ° NW 9 WSW 25 0.020.00 5485634 °-15 °1019 59 % 276 Wed 12/07 00Z 43 °33 °39 ° NW 11 NW 18 0.000.00 536554-7 °-14 °1021 39 % 288 Wed 12/07 12Z 33 °24 °25 ° NW 11 NNW 22 0.000.00 521542-12 °-20 °1026 23 % 300 Thu 12/08 00Z 36 °24 °25 ° NW 9 NNW 25 0.000.00 530556-11 °-21 °1032 9 % 312 Thu 12/08 12Z 28 °23 °20 ° NW 4 NNW 18 0.000.00 5425701 °-20 °1035 1 % 324 Fri 12/09 00Z 44 °23 °38 ° WNW 4 NNW 9 0.000.00 5485756 °-19 °1033 1 % 336 Fri 12/09 12Z 30 °27 °25 ° N 2 SW 4 0.000.00 5485756 °-19 °1034 1 % 348 Sat 12/10 00Z 50 °27 °45 ° SE 2 SW 7 0.000.00 5495776 °-18 °1033 1 % 360 Sat 12/10 12Z 32 °29 °29 ° CALM SW 7 0.000.00 5505786 °-17 °1034 4 % 372 Sun 12/11 00Z 54 °30 °51 ° CALM SSW 7 0.000.00 5535806 °-14 °1032 1 % 384 Sun 12/11 12Z 38 °35 °33 ° E 2 S 11 0.000.00 5555806 °-13 °1030 35 % EDIT: I have fixed this twice, it shows up on the preview in correct format, but when I submit the post it comes out like this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Sounds like you need more naps I enjoy it all...the tracking, snow/sleet/ice falling, then playing in it until it's gone. I do find myself taking more power naps when it gets active, so maybe that helps. I am liking the long range temps and more chances of rain goofy keeps showing (snip) EDIT: I have fixed this twice, it shows up on the preview in correct format, but when I submit the post it comes out like this..... I had this problem but then found out why. Easily fixable.. 1) go to "My Settings" 2) uncheck "Enable Visual (RTE) editor" 3) save your settings 4) bask in the glory of proper formatting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 I had this problem but then found out why. Easily fixable.. 1) go to "My Settings" 2) uncheck "Enable Visual (RTE) editor" 3) save your settings 4) bask in the glory of proper formatting Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I wonder if this will go down as the "year of the cutoff lows". The country saw quite a few in early fall now we have this one coming on through, if the GFS is right a couple more will move across one portion of the country or another in the next 10 days. I can't get the post out of my head where Robert showed the NH and how many cutoffs were around the globe. Pretty neat stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I wonder if this will go down as the "year of the cutoff lows". The country saw quite a few in early fall now we have this one coming on through, if the GFS is right a couple more will move across one portion of the country or another in the next 10 days. I can't get the post out of my head where Robert showed the NH and how many cutoffs were around the globe. Pretty neat stuff. Truely bizarre pattern. I've never seen this many 5H cutoffs, ever. Tonights GFS keeps them going, they're absolutely everywhere. I'm curious if anybody has any idea whats going on? I know nina's are known for them, esp. in Spring and Fall , but this is well beyond anything I've ever studied. And at what point in the season do they ease up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Truely bizarre pattern. I've never seen this many 5H cutoffs, ever. Tonights GFS keeps them going, they're absolutely everywhere. I'm curious if anybody has any idea whats going on? I know nina's are known for them, esp. in Spring and Fall , but this is well beyond anything I've ever studied. And at what point in the season do they ease up? What is the difference between a cutoff low and an upper level low? Are the terms interchangeable? Are they different in some regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 What is the difference between a cutoff low and an upper level low? Are the terms interchangeable? Are they different in some regard? I don't exactly remember the full definition of either but I always like to refer to what this is as a 'cutoff' since it's totally separated from the main flow. It is an upper low too, but when I refer to an upper low precisely I usually think of it as being part of a frontal system, like riding along a distinct boundary , kinda like the one we had in March 2009. That was an upper low and had distinct warm front and stationary front with it if I recall. I sometimes us them interchageably though, but somebody else can probably give you a better definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Then you are doing it wrong, because the chase is only half of the fun I think me and Tony need to kidnap you and make you remember what having fun in the snow/sleet is all about Amen to that !! Get him on a flexi flier type long bodied sled doing 35 down my county road down here, and he will remember the joy of sleet and snow, lol. Just stay inside of the bridge abutment down at the bottom! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 What is the difference between a cutoff low and an upper level low? Are the terms interchangeable? Are they different in some regard? I know Robert's answered for you, but I want to add something. Upper level lows can do either (that is either detaching or staying along the main westerlies) but if staying attached, they move along a general west to east direction while supported by the polar front and jet stream so there's your difference. Here's something else for those of you who get a tad confused: All cut-off lows are closed lows but not all closed lows are cut-off lows. Just as was mentioned above, you can have an upper level closed system but does not detach. Therefore, these terms can be used interchangeably but it is advised that the term "cut-off" should only be used when referring to systems that have completely detached themselves. Hope I explained that correctly. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on either thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Example of an non-cut off, closed low at H5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 A closed low has several characteristics. Closed lows tend to be deep pressure systems with one or more height contours encircling them on the analysis charts at all levels in the troposphere. A closed low is occluded and vertically stacked. Because the low is closed, it does not generate much PVA and NVA. The vort max will be near the center of rotation. It is difficult to get a windflow that produces vorticity advection because the vorticity isopleths for the most part are parallel to the height contours. The weather associated with closed lows tends to be cloudy with showers in the vicinity of the low's center. Closed lows are often slow movers but can move quickly if they are embedded within the jet stream. Cloudy and rainy weather can persist with the slow movers. Thermal advection tends to be weak with closed lows since they are occluded. A special case of the closed low is the cut-off low. A cut-off low moves slowly since the jet streamwinds aloft are displaced away from the low and are thus not able to move it along. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Amen to that !! Get him on a flexi flier type long bodied sled doing 35 down my county road down here, and he will remember the joy of sleet and snow, lol. Just stay inside of the bridge abutment down at the bottom! T Exactly Looks like CAE is going with a slower system and keeping the mention of thunder in the forecast .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL IS FASTER...WENT CLOSER TO A ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION...BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. SO...KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER FOR MONDAY. THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS TUESDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL ADVERTISE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Good discussion above on upper level lows / cutoff lows / closed lows. A lot of times I will see folks write something like 'that one was an upper level low' when referring to a snowstorm. When I see that, I associate it with a strong, closed contour, bowling ball upper low like March 2009. Although the evolution of our current storm's upper low is different from March 2009, if TN gets a good snow out of it, folks are going to refer to it as an ULL....but here's the rub....virtually every storm system that occurs in the U.S., outside of tropical systems, will have an upper level low. The upper low could be anywhere from a very low amplitude, open wave with a weak vort max on the low end....to....a high amplitude open wave......to......a closed contour upper low that is part of the main flow......to.....a closed contour upper low that is detached from the main flow (a cutoff upper low). Regardless, virtually every storm system that generates precipitation is going to have some type of upper low reflection as seen on the 500mb charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Big temperature spread across the area this morning -- RDU is 57, we're at 45 over here at KJNX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 12z GFS next week has some really cold air funneling in to most of the US after about 200 hours. It sticks around for the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 69f... cannot beat this for late November. Bring on the "Spinny Storms"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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