burgertime Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Euro sends the low through Indiana. Looks like maybe a shot of snow in the southwest portions of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think some people need to take a deep breath and then exhale...nobody outside of the mountains will see any snow with next week's upper low. Actually I like the way things look in Northern AL and western TN the most. If the 12Z GFS verifies you can make a safe bet those areas are in for some flurries/snow showers/graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Euro sends the low through Indiana. Looks like maybe a shot of snow in the southwest portions of NC. LOL yet another solution from the Euro. Has it had two consecutive runs yet that have shown anything remotely similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Add in that this is an upper level low and its 5 days out, I think people need to take a few more breaths (perhaps in a bag). Im not dogging everyone's excitement, hell ive been glued to the models since Sunday afternoon but these things are extremely dependent on track. I would say we can all start flipping *you know what, come Thursday or Friday. I guess its the 1st real chance and everyone is just excited to have something to talk about. Im not saying we shold stop discussion but sounding analysis this far out seems excessive. For me that is a bit of the exciting part. While I am fully aware that the probabilities of getting snow IMBY is practically zero with these lows you just never know. Getting a mix the first week in December would be exciting enough for me...or even some backside flurries. Either way I'll be glued to the maps the next few days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 LOL yet another solution from the Euro. Has it had two consecutive runs yet that have shown anything remotely similar? They are def. night and day 00z to 12z. Just shows how hard of a time the models are having with the pattern. Either way both 12z Euro and GFS says cold air by next Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 UKMet is north as well. Looks like the GFS is on an island with the 12z runs...fantasy island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 UKMet is north as well. Looks like the GFS is on an island with the 12z runs...fantasy island? Sounds like a likely story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 UKMet is north as well. Looks like the GFS is on an island with the 12z runs...fantasy island? UKMet? The UKie only has detail to 72 hours, and only runs to 120... I'm not so sure you can extrapolate the 120 hour ukmet to get an idea of if the Low closes off or not, or even where that happens. I could be completely wrong but I want to see what happens after 120 to decide if the UkMet is north or not. I could be completely wrong but that's jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I take back my last post kinda... Looks like the Canadain and UKmet are not going to close off our low and we are left with a FROPA... We all know how well those work out around here.... That imo is why they both look like they are so far north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 UKMet is north as well. Looks like the GFS is on an island with the 12z runs...fantasy island? Its an Upper Level Low track of course models are going to have this thing tracking everywhere this far out. Trying to pinpoint the track this early as right or wrong is kinda silly. Just note the weather looks to be interesting in the eastern part of the country come Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 UKMet? The UKie only has detail to 72 hours, and only runs to 120... I'm not so sure you can extrapolate the 120 hour ukmet to get an idea of if the Low closes off or not, or even where that happens. I could be completely wrong but I want to see what happens after 120 to decide if the UkMet is north or not. I could be completely wrong but that's jmo. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html I stand corrected about not going past 120 hours. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It's nice to have something to drive the discussion rather than all the warmista negativity of the last few weeks. A good bit of cold would do us all some good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 For folks hoping for some action no matter how small... The 12Z GFS ensembles do not appear to me to support the OP. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/Members.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I can't find that "Ask a meteorologist" thread on the main forum, so I'll ask here --we've got way many smart people who will know When tracking severe weather (using GR3, in my case, to look for rotation) is the data better from a radar site ahead of the storm or one that a storm has already passed by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I can't find that "Ask a meteorologist" thread on the main forum, so I'll ask here --we've got way many smart people who will know When tracking severe weather (using GR3, in my case, to look for rotation) is the data better from a radar site ahead of the storm or one that a storm has already passed by? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/30-meteorology-101/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Another record in the books for KATL today Record high was 74 they are already at 76... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It's nice to have something to drive the discussion rather than all the warmista negativity of the last few weeks. A good bit of cold would do us all some good. Here's some warmista for ya 76.6 with full blazing sun, after several hours of mostly cloudy, and a front charging this way...and I don't like the looks of the southern end. Yikes I'd much rather try to pin down the wanderings of a ULL...more fun than pinning mercury down with your thumb, but this front has my attention, lol. T Edit :77.1....going up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We broke the record of 81 set in 1997 with a high of 84 today. Currently its 82 with the heat index at 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We broke the record of 81 set in 1997 with a high of 84 today. Currently its 82 with the heat index at 86. Keep your eyes peeled down there! That's a lot of gas to throw on the fire T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Broke my record of 77 today when I hit 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 So I have not seen any disco about this, but to my untrained eyes is the the GFS not depicting an ULL in 6 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 here is the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Well looks very wet, says NWS .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. .MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 So I have not seen any disco about this, but to my untrained eyes is the the GFS not depicting an ULL in 6 days? There has been lots of disco in this thread.. But I went ahead and created a thread dedicated to the storm. It's probably pulling the trigger too fast but whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 here is the precip You're a little late to the party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 You're a little late to the party! Not surprising. I just got out of the hospital late yesterday evening. Had some knee surgery and I have not been on the computer since Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Not surprising. I just got out of the hospital late yesterday evening. Had some knee surgery and I have not been on the computer since Friday. Sorry to hear that! Hope it all went well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 (Let me know if a separate thread is started for Obs and I'll move to that, OK?) Light rain started here in western Douglas County about 15 minutes ago. A few minutes ago there was some very distant, very muffled thunder from the Warned mass over in Carroll County. The warmth was sort of surreal, it felt great (I was in Florida over the weekend!). But it just didn't sync with a backdrop of leafless trees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Its pouring down rain outside with nothing on the radar. The sun is out also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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