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November Disco/Obs II


Isopycnic

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I think some people need to take a deep breath and then exhale...nobody outside of the mountains will see any snow with next week's upper low.

Actually I like the way things look in Northern AL and western TN the most. If the 12Z GFS verifies you can make a safe bet those areas are in for some flurries/snow showers/graupel.

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Add in that this is an upper level low and its 5 days out, I think people need to take a few more breaths (perhaps in a bag). Im not dogging everyone's excitement, hell ive been glued to the models since Sunday afternoon but these things are extremely dependent on track.

I would say we can all start flipping *you know what, come Thursday or Friday. I guess its the 1st real chance and everyone is just excited to have something to talk about. Im not saying we shold stop discussion but sounding analysis this far out seems excessive.

For me that is a bit of the exciting part. While I am fully aware that the probabilities of getting snow IMBY is practically zero with these lows you just never know. Getting a mix the first week in December would be exciting enough for me...or even some backside flurries. Either way I'll be glued to the maps the next few days devilsmiley.gif.

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UKMet is north as well. Looks like the GFS is on an island with the 12z runs...fantasy island?

UKMet? The UKie only has detail to 72 hours, and only runs to 120... I'm not so sure you can extrapolate the 120 hour ukmet to get an idea of if the Low closes off or not, or even where that happens. I could be completely wrong but I want to see what happens after 120 to decide if the UkMet is north or not. I could be completely wrong but that's jmo.

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UKMet is north as well. Looks like the GFS is on an island with the 12z runs...fantasy island?

Its an Upper Level Low track of course models are going to have this thing tracking everywhere this far out. Trying to pinpoint the track this early as right or wrong is kinda silly. Just note the weather looks to be interesting in the eastern part of the country come Monday.

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UKMet? The UKie only has detail to 72 hours, and only runs to 120... I'm not so sure you can extrapolate the 120 hour ukmet to get an idea of if the Low closes off or not, or even where that happens. I could be completely wrong but I want to see what happens after 120 to decide if the UkMet is north or not. I could be completely wrong but that's jmo.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html

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I can't find that "Ask a meteorologist" thread on the main forum, so I'll ask here --we've got way many smart people who will know ;)

When tracking severe weather (using GR3, in my case, to look for rotation) is the data better from a radar site ahead of the storm or one that a storm has already passed by?

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I can't find that "Ask a meteorologist" thread on the main forum, so I'll ask here --we've got way many smart people who will know ;)

When tracking severe weather (using GR3, in my case, to look for rotation) is the data better from a radar site ahead of the storm or one that a storm has already passed by?

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/30-meteorology-101/

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It's nice to have something to drive the discussion rather than all the warmista negativity of the last few weeks. A good bit of cold would do us all some good.

Here's some warmista for ya :) 76.6 with full blazing sun, after several hours of mostly cloudy, and a front charging this way...and I don't like the looks of the southern end. Yikes :) I'd much rather try to pin down the wanderings of a ULL...more fun than pinning mercury down with your thumb, but this front has my attention, lol. T

Edit :77.1....going up!

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Well looks very wet, says NWS

.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS

AROUND 60. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY

RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

30 PERCENT.

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(Let me know if a separate thread is started for Obs and I'll move to that, OK?)

Light rain started here in western Douglas County about 15 minutes ago. A few minutes ago there was some very distant, very muffled thunder from the Warned mass over in Carroll County.

The warmth was sort of surreal, it felt great (I was in Florida over the weekend!). But it just didn't sync with a backdrop of leafless trees!

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