ag3 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Trolling? I hardly think so , I laid out my ideas over the last two days, not sure what you are talking about, just like old time Joshua! Banter thread please. Here's the link: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Banter thread please. Sorry about that Algreek, I had 3 posts reported saying i was trolling without explanation, just wanted to multiqoute those posts for all to see where I stood on the storm and that I had laid out my thoughts. Happy Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Sorry about that Algreek, I had 3 posts reported saying i was trolling without explanation, just wanted to multiqoute those posts for all to see where I stood on the storm and that I had laid out my thoughts. Happy Thanksgiving We don't mix these types of posts like SNE does. We keep stuff in the banter thread mostly, including long range models. Makes threads much more bearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 We don't mix these types of posts like SNE does. We keep stuff in the banter thread mostly, including long range models. Makes threads much more bearable. Sounds good. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 We don't mix these types of posts like SNE does. We keep stuff in the banter thread mostly, including long range models. Makes threads much more bearable. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Trolling? I hardly think so , I laid out my ideas over the last two days, not sure what you are talking about, just like old time Joshua! you're troll posts are in the other thread and you know what you were doing. Keep it in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Upton is being very bullish for this threat. Their AFD reads: THEN FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON NIGHT AND TOWARDS THE REGION TUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EURO/CAN MODELS AND NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS SIGNALING MORE PHASED ENERGY AND STRONGER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE COASTAL LOW WED INTO THU. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIER QPF WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH EVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITIONING WINTRY PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING. THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTIES REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER TUES NIGHT THROUGH THU. CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST. Here is the HWO: THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WINDS...AND EVEN COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH...SO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 can somebody post the NOGAPS? brings the storm down more south with snow still being a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Upton is being very bullish for this threat. Their AFD reads: THEN FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS IN TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MON NIGHT AND TOWARDS THE REGION TUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EURO/CAN MODELS AND NUMEROUS GEFS MEMBERS SIGNALING MORE PHASED ENERGY AND STRONGER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE COASTAL LOW WED INTO THU. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIER QPF WED INTO WED NIGHT...WITH EVEN POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITIONING WINTRY PRECIP AND STRONG WINDS WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING. THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTIES REDUCE CONFIDENCE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER TUES NIGHT THROUGH THU. CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST. Here is the HWO: THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION...STRONG WINDS...AND EVEN COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH...SO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST. Interesting that they refer to this a coastal storm even though the majority of the models that they mention take the storm through the northern Mid Atlantic and SNE before moving offshore... the exact track doesn't matter much though as long as there's going to be significant impacts from this storm, in this case in the form of heavy rain and potentially gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like the GFS made some steps towards the Euro in regards to cutting off the storm. There looks to be flakes flying on Thanksgiving in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 The trough still looks too amplified for snow on that GFS run. Anyway, does anyone know what the 0z Euro shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2011 Share Posted November 20, 2011 Looks like a chilly day for turkey day, exactly what I wanted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Sorry about that Algreek, I had 3 posts reported saying i was trolling without explanation, just wanted to multiqoute those posts for all to see where I stood on the storm and that I had laid out my thoughts. Happy Thanksgiving You quoted me in there..I was not accusing you of trolling at all, just clarifying that I was not forecasting snow for NYC on Wednesday...because I thought you may have misinterpreted that from my post the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 With the storm expected to move through central NY, the GFS, ECM and NAM show temps reaching the lower 60s on Wednesday, and the area briefly gets warm sectored before the cold front moves through in the afternoon. The NAM and GFS even show slightly negative LI and decent bulk shear... it's late in the season, but perhaps we could have rumbles of thunder on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 With the storm expected to move through central NY, the GFS, ECM and NAM show temps reaching the lower 60s on Thursday, and the area briefly gets warm sectored before the cold front moves through in the afternoon. The NAM and GFS even show slightly negative LI and decent bulk shear... it's late in the season, but perhaps we could have rumbles of thunder on Thursday? Thats wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Thats wednesday Right, thanks for correcting me... thought about the wrong day when making that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12z NAM has a pretty decent rain event. 1.50"-1.75" of rain areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12z NAM has a pretty decent rain event. 1.50"-1.75" of rain areawide. 12z GFS coming out even wetter. Heavy rainfall. 2"-2.50" of rain for all of NYC and LI with a 3.15" bullseye in the Hudson Valley. Flooding issues probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 There should be some decent heavy overrunning rainfall near and north of the surface track low and warm front. Check how deep the moisture is off the GFS forecast soundings. Any elevated convection would enhance the heavier rainfall total potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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