SnowGoose69 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Euro ens take the storm over the south coast of SNE next week. I still think this ends up father north. My experience in these SW flow type setups is that the Euro and NAM have a tendency to be too far south alot of the time, exception being in an extreme -EPO situation where SW flow setups can track exceptionally far to the south but I expect this will track very close to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 18z gfs back to a colder solution. 0 line slips south of us all and 540 line close while good precip around. Waiting on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 surface on gfs is fugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Typical long range DGEX fantasy snowstorm scenario... no surprise there The pattern is still progressive in this time frame with a high pressure possible to the north of the storm, so at this time I'm favoring a storm track somewhere over or just north of NJ, probably closer to northern NJ. Parts of the NE could very well see snow out of this, but the DGEX is absolutely crazy IMO... after all, it was the same model that tried to blow up the storm before the late October nor'easter into a 24+ inch blizzard for the interior NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Interesting... 18z GEFS individual members are almost all suppressed, a big flip from the earlier runs: It'll be interesting to see if this is just a one run idea or if it's a red flag for a suppressed storm. I'm thinking that it's a one run idea, but there's still time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Typical long range DGEX fantasy snowstorm scenario... no surprise there The pattern is still progressive in this time frame with a high pressure possible to the north of the storm, so at this time I'm favoring a storm track somewhere over or just north of NJ, probably closer to northern NJ. Parts of the NE could very well see snow out of this, but the DGEX is absolutely crazy IMO... after all, it was the same model that tried to blow up the storm before the late October nor'easter into a 24+ inch blizzard for the interior NE. The dgex that trials posted is almost all rain. The frame he posted is when all that precip already fell and atmosphere is just cold enough for frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Ugly torch in that time frame - what kind of temps are being depicted there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Ugly torch in that time frame - what kind of temps are being depicted there? Widespread 8-9 Degree C 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 What a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 What a disaster. Hi. Snow88 - would that mean 60s to around 70? I was thinking we'd need over +10c to get 70, but it could be well into the 60s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Hi. Snow88 - would that mean 60s to around 70? I was thinking we'd need over +10c to get 70, but it could be well into the 60s? 50's and 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Not sure what the 180 hr prog has to do with the pre thanksgiving storm.. 00z GFS is ugly for the storm and the ensemble means could not be more different with a low off the carolina coast at 120 hrs... The ECM i am sure will be ugly as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 This is the ECM ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Euro takes the storm over the Mass Pike...verbatim likely rain even for my place in Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Ok -someone tell me what is wrong with this picture... UKMET ^^^^^^ at 120 hrs GGEM ^^^^ at 120 hrs... GFS means 120 hrs Then the ECM I realize the GFS op is also in the NE at 120 but not the ensemble means.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 When you start seeing the GFS play catch up the Euro, at this range, it's pretty good sign that the Euro is handling this better and will be leading the model trends. The UKMET and CMC are also less reliable this range. So I think while there could be more changes, the window for a much colder solution is closing. Like others have already said, the pattern basically sucks. No one really should of have expected to this go well. Especially in November. Btw, if the Euro and GFS are correct with the slp track, I wouldn't be shocked to see, some of us in the 60s and getting thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wed. AM. The 6z/18 GFS has 50kt+ LLJ over us Tuesday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Ok -someone tell me what is wrong with this picture... Then the ECM I realize the GFS op is also in the NE at 120 but not the ensemble means.... Analog storm? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1993/us1211.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 dgex would be a heavy wet flash freeze type snow at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 ukie is still south and weak, not like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Looks like the Nam trended towards the Euro and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Looks like the Nam trended towards the Euro and GFS. It depends what happens later after the run. The SLP could jump to the coast and reform with the 1030 high not giving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 When you start seeing the GFS play catch up the Euro, at this range, it's pretty good sign that the Euro is handling this better and will be leading the model trends. The UKMET and CMC are also less reliable this range. So I think while there could be more changes, the window for a much colder solution is closing. Like others have already said, the pattern basically sucks. No one really should of have expected to this go well. Especially in November. I agree. The Euro almost always leads the way in these events. How many times are we going to have to see it to believe it? The GFS and CMC are too far south and suppressed..the Euro might be a hair too far north...it's usually the same movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 I agree. The Euro almost always leads the way in these events. How many times are we going to have to see it to believe it? The GFS and CMC are too far south and suppressed..the Euro might be a hair too far north...it's usually the same movie. Especially true in a La Nina pattern with no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Warm sectored, no blocking, as expected it knuckles TOronto. Vicious pattern,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 put this in the banter thread, but euro at the end of its run take the atlantic ridge and backs it into canada causing the whole flow to buckle while the low retrogradees west into the southern canada. Its crazy. Meanwhile colder air bleeds into the conus as we await changes out west. Def. a totally new look which is why long range forecasting is a crap shoot. Can't ignore the fact either that the blocks continue to form west of greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Euro and the CMC are defnitely showing very amp'd up solutions. Closed H5 low off the east coast, probly warm - but we can say thats a good sign for winter atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 that wrapped up under the 500 low you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Positive tilt keeps it south, if it went negative there is no blocking to keep it from cutting into se canada, and if its any further south its a sheared out wave, euro was threading the needle. Whats up with the gooooteee tomahawk chop? Impressive for 144 out no doubt, but look at that death ridge about to pounce, man is it going to be warm the first week of December. I dont see nyc seeing flakes as this ends, this is a classic SWFE, we will be warming not cooling, even along the south coast of ne its a snow to rain scenario, and as the swfe passes by..............that ridge rolls right over, the torch strikes back. My post above details the recent modeling changes in regards to the MJO impulse. Seeing the guidance make it a weaker wave is very encouraging as we could propagate through those unfavorable areas. Hopefully once we move towards phases 7-8 we can get lucky with a nice impulse. Regardless of that...what happens over the Pac fundamentally will have huge impacts down the road. I mentioned a week or two ago that if that big vortex over Alaska and the Aluetians is still there in four weeks we will be in trouble. Historically, if it's there in Dec we are in some deep doo-doo as far as winter goes. But right now, things are looking better in the long range. Seeing that feature retrograde and weaken is great. The Euro weeklies are improved big time by weeks 3-4 with a -EPO. Things would likely take another week to get settled from there, but theres plenty of cold air ready to pour onto our side of the globe in that pattern. I said two weeks ago that Dec 15 was my projected date for the pattern to change. I think things are right on schedule. I saw the weeklies earlier, they look ok, finally getting back to near climo by mid December. I have no doubt at all in my mind this will be a huge winter snowfall wise somewhere in the NE, where that gradient sets up Im not so sure yet. Should have a healthy SE ridge this winter, moderate nina, NS dominated pattern and a lack of any real STJ although a split flow could show up now and then, and possibly shorter wavelengths than normal. It all adds up to SWFE heaven in my very humble and meaningless opinion. Whether these puppies exit ac, sandy hook or traverse Long Island Sound this winter is anyones guess, but means everything. Happy Tday I'm not forecasting this, believe me. All I did was speak of what I feel is the absolute best case scenario (pretty much the 12z euro). I've been ****ting on this storm threat from the get go, but today I found the need to acknowledge that it is not completely impossible to squeeze something out in a very fine window next Wednesday (primarily for New England). And I disagree with your other comment about the swfe...You still have CAA on the backside of the surface low, albeit brief, and enough so that people can change to snow at the tail end in this scenario...and then the ridge rolls over bringing the heat. Trolling? I hardly think so , I laid out my ideas over the last two days, not sure what you are talking about, just like old time Joshua! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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