earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 For all intents and purposes this is a god-awful pattern for a snowstorm. But I guess if you were going to try and get one, you'd want some type of polar stream interaction...which is what it appears the models are trying to get going here. If we can amplify that northern stream feature a little more, it could theoretically allow some more deepening off the coast. But my gut tells me this thing will wind up coming in as a SWFE. Not to mention it will be 60 degrees the next day as that ridge rolls east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Looks like records will continue to fall in Alaska in the week ahead.....that is one impressive +EPO. Euro weeklies erode that vortex as the MJO impulse moves into stages 5-6 by early December. The GEFS look similar as the retrograde begins by the end of the month. The MJO phase diagram for the GEFS actually has a very weak propogation through phases 2-3 as it heads back into the COD with some potential re-emergence later with a stronger impulse. That would actually be a somewhat ideal situation...to avoid a more moderate impulse through stages 2-6. Here are the moderate phase 4 composite for DJF. To stay away from this would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Fork Yukon, AK low: -41 old record: -29 Eielson Air Force Base, Ak low: -41 old record: -40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 RH field is garbage.... Well, yeah, it's suppressed to our south. Here's the earlier frame. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/f132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 if its south its sheared to death, anything else knuckles Toronto. This pattern is horrific, talk to me in January. Lol, the voice of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Lol, the voice of reason. Positive tilt keeps it south, if it went negative there is no blocking to keep it from cutting into se canada, and if its any further south its a sheared out wave, euro was threading the needle. Whats up with the gooooteee tomahawk chop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Impressive for 144 out no doubt, but look at that death ridge about to pounce, man is it going to be warm the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Impressive for 144 out no doubt, but look at that death ridge about to pounce, man is it going to be warm the first week of December. Not so fast there,it will get warm for the day following Thanksgiving, but the beginning days of December may be one of our transient cold periods... And just a general note, the greatest warmth at this time of year with the Alaska vortex pattern will be centered in the High Plains. We are definitely warm for days at a time here on the East coast, but maybe not as much as people are fearing. As far as this storm threat goes, it's almost amazing that it's possible for New England to get a storm in this small window with the global pattern, but I guess it is if the timing is good enough. In the BEST of scenarios, I can see northwest NJ getting in on the action on the most southern end with maybe a few flakes to end in NYC.. But there is needless to say a very short leash for things to go wrong (were they ever right??) with this threat in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Not so fast there, this may be one of our transient cold periods at the beginning of the month... Just a general note, the greatest warmth will likely be centered in the high plains with this Alaska vortex pattern. As far as this storm threat goes, it's almost amazing that it's possible for New England to get a storm in this small window with the global pattern, but I guess it is if the timing is good enough. In the BEST of scenarios, I can see northwest NJ getting in on the action on the most southern end with maybe a few flakes to end in NYC.. But there is needless to say a very short leash for things to go wrong (were they ever right??) with this threat in the coming days. I dont see nyc seeing flakes as this ends, this is a classic SWFE, we will be warming not cooling, even along the south coast of ne its a snow to rain scenario, and as the swfe passes by..............that ridge rolls right over, the torch strikes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I dont see nyc seeing flakes as this ends, this is a classic SWFE, we will be warming not cooling, even along the south coast of ne its a snow to rain scenario, and as the swfe passes by..............that ridge rolls right over, the torch strikes back. My post above details the recent modeling changes in regards to the MJO impulse. Seeing the guidance make it a weaker wave is very encouraging as we could propagate through those unfavorable areas. Hopefully once we move towards phases 7-8 we can get lucky with a nice impulse. Regardless of that...what happens over the Pac fundamentally will have huge impacts down the road. I mentioned a week or two ago that if that big vortex over Alaska and the Aluetians is still there in four weeks we will be in trouble. Historically, if it's there in Dec we are in some deep doo-doo as far as winter goes. But right now, things are looking better in the long range. Seeing that feature retrograde and weaken is great. The Euro weeklies are improved big time by weeks 3-4 with a -EPO. Things would likely take another week to get settled from there, but theres plenty of cold air ready to pour onto our side of the globe in that pattern. I said two weeks ago that Dec 15 was my projected date for the pattern to change. I think things are right on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 My post above details the recent modeling changes in regards to the MJO impulse. Seeing the guidance make it a weaker wave is very encouraging as we could propagate through those unfavorable areas. Hopefully once we move towards phases 7-8 we can get lucky with a nice impulse. Regardless of that...what happens over the Pac fundamentally will have huge impacts down the road. I mentioned a week or two ago that if that big vortex over Alaska and the Aluetians is still there in four weeks we will be in trouble. Historically, if it's there in Dec we are in some deep doo-doo as far as winter goes. But right now, things are looking better in the long range. Seeing that feature retrograde and weaken is great. The Euro weeklies are improved big time by weeks 3-4 with a -EPO. Things would likely take another week to get settled from there, but theres plenty of cold air ready to pour onto our side of the globe in that pattern. I said two weeks ago that Dec 15 was my projected date for the pattern to change. I think things are right on schedule. I saw the weeklies earlier, they look ok, finally getting back to near climo by mid December. I have no doubt at all in my mind this will be a huge winter snowfall wise somewhere in the NE, where that gradient sets up Im not so sure yet. Should have a healthy SE ridge this winter, moderate nina, NS dominated pattern and a lack of any real STJ although a split flow could show up now and then, and possibly shorter wavelengths than normal. It all adds up to SWFE heaven in my very humble and meaningless opinion. Whether these puppies exit ac, sandy hook or traverse Long Island Sound this winter is anyones guess, but means everything. Happy Tday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I dont see nyc seeing flakes as this ends, this is a classic SWFE, we will be warming not cooling, even along the south coast of ne its a snow to rain scenario, and as the swfe passes by..............that ridge rolls right over, the torch strikes back. I'm not forecasting this, believe me. All I did was speak of what I feel is the absolute best case scenario (pretty much the 12z euro). I've been ****ting on this storm threat from the get go, but today I found the need to acknowledge that it is not completely impossible to squeeze something out in a very fine window next Wednesday (primarily for New England). And I disagree with your other comment about the swfe...You still have CAA on the backside of the surface low, albeit brief, and enough so that people can change to snow at the tail end in this scenario...and then the ridge rolls over bringing the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I believe we had some wet snow last thanksgiving, in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I believe we had some wet snow last thanksgiving, in the morning. correct--especially in PA and NJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 My post above details the recent modeling changes in regards to the MJO impulse. Seeing the guidance make it a weaker wave is very encouraging as we could propagate through those unfavorable areas. Hopefully once we move towards phases 7-8 we can get lucky with a nice impulse. Regardless of that...what happens over the Pac fundamentally will have huge impacts down the road. I mentioned a week or two ago that if that big vortex over Alaska and the Aluetians is still there in four weeks we will be in trouble. Historically, if it's there in Dec we are in some deep doo-doo as far as winter goes. But right now, things are looking better in the long range. Seeing that feature retrograde and weaken is great. The Euro weeklies are improved big time by weeks 3-4 with a -EPO. Things would likely take another week to get settled from there, but theres plenty of cold air ready to pour onto our side of the globe in that pattern. I said two weeks ago that Dec 15 was my projected date for the pattern to change. I think things are right on schedule. Good post John, and I also agree about the Dec 15th date still looking like a fair time frame for full scale reversal in the East. I mentioned in my thread about the ECMWF really speeding the MJO wave into phase 4 by December 1st, which should take us to near phase 7 by mid month, when other indicators are beginning to align (weakening AK vortex, heights rising in the north atlantic, etc). GFS ensembles do take the NAO weakly negative by D 15 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 It's hard for me to see this storm cutting well to our north, given the overall progressive pattern, lack of any significant phasing and another trough briefly dropping into the region, but with no significant improvements in the pattern, this appears to be one of those storms that fall under the right timing to bring a snow potential to the Northeast. IMO it's just going to be a wet pre-Thanksgiving storm here, but perhaps southern-central New England may see a better chance for snow if the location and timing are supportive. The "torch" behind this doesn't look that bad as well - 850mb temps do rise to near 10c but they only last for a few days before the next potential transient cool spell, bringing slightly above average temps for Thanksgiving weekend with a day or two of above-well above average temps likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 My post above details the recent modeling changes in regards to the MJO impulse. Seeing the guidance make it a weaker wave is very encouraging as we could propagate through those unfavorable areas. Hopefully once we move towards phases 7-8 we can get lucky with a nice impulse. Regardless of that...what happens over the Pac fundamentally will have huge impacts down the road. I mentioned a week or two ago that if that big vortex over Alaska and the Aluetians is still there in four weeks we will be in trouble. Historically, if it's there in Dec we are in some deep doo-doo as far as winter goes. But right now, things are looking better in the long range. Seeing that feature retrograde and weaken is great. The Euro weeklies are improved big time by weeks 3-4 with a -EPO. Things would likely take another week to get settled from there, but theres plenty of cold air ready to pour onto our side of the globe in that pattern. I said two weeks ago that Dec 15 was my projected date for the pattern to change. I think things are right on schedule. That sounds like a big change from the previous weeklies which kept things warm from what I heard... I agree with mid December as a reasonable time frame for a pattern flip; although the ECM/GFS weaken the cold air that built over central/southern Canada by Thanksgiving, there's plenty of time between the end of November and the middle of December for the MJO to reach the favorable phases, for the cold to rebuild and the pattern to gradually turn in our favor. There's still a lot of time, and with more postiive signs showing up, I definitely wouldn't give up on any pattern change yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 euro is way more robust than the gfs with next weeks storm. The next frame is very impressive with a 980's closed off low offshore..hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 euro is way more robust than the gfs with next weeks storm. The next frame is very impressive with a 980's closed off low offshore..hmm And also very soupy! UKMET looks off the Carolina coast GGEM says what storm.. GFS is more south and east but the means are more North... Essentially no model agreement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 And also very soupy! UKMET looks off the Carolina coast GGEM says what storm.. GFS is more south and east but the means are more North... Essentially no model agreement... yeah euro is definitly showing the most amplified solution so far..Suprised you didn't mention the nogaps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 yeah euro is definitly showing the most amplified solution so far..Suprised you didn't mention the nogaps lol From what i seen off Ewall it looks fairly similar to the ECM.... (all other sites it has not updated yet..or the site is not working) Split flow... Difficult time period for the models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 DGEX 6z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Euro ens take the storm over the south coast of SNE next week. I still think this ends up father north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 If for some reason we get snow from this, then pigs may might as well start flying. I don't know but I really do think we'll see snow from this just because of how wacky the weather has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 12z GFS says enjoy a wet Turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Tuesday night into Wednesday morning 12z GFS says enjoy a wet Turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Euro ens take the storm over the south coast of SNE next week. I still think this ends up father north. I gotta say the best chance of us seeing snow around the tristate area has gotta be beginning of december or when this horrendous pattern breaks. Exception would be maybe a thread the needle event but its gonna be hard to do anything until the pacific starts cooperating. Just my amatuer opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Much will have to go right for this to be a significant storm threat. I posted my (initial) thoughts here if anyone wishes to read them: TGD holiday storm threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 euro says forget any snow for next week-strung out mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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