JBG Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That June was even miserable before Agnes. As was April, much of July, October (except the snow day), November and December. On December 15, 1972 we did have that near miss, and about 4" in Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 5" on 2/26/1972? actually it was the 23rd... http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/products/output.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 What a disaster this forecast turned out to be lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Not by Wes but the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 La Nina with a neg pdo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 snow 2-25-1972.pdfsnow 2-24-1972.pdf actually it was the 23rd... http://climate.usurf...ucts/output.php The problem with citing to that storm is that it was a slushfest. From what I recall reading the New York Times the day after the storm (we flew in from Barbados that night) we had snow and rain. I tried to attach a copy of the articles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 La Nina with a neg pdo Eh, we've had -NAOs in Nina's before. Even during -NAO decadal cycles, you can have a +NAO for a long stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 La Nina with a neg pdo There have been more La Nina's with a Negative PDO then positive. 1950-1951 1956-1957 1962-1963 1967-1968 1971-1972 1974-1975 2008-2009 1954-1955 1964-1965 1970-1971 1998-1999 1999-2000 2007-2008 2010-2011 1949-1950 1955-1956 1973-1974 1975-1976 1988-1989 http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chionomaniac Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I suspect that we will see a SSW in January due to a number of factors. We have a descending QBO, increasing stratospheric ozone levels, feedback from end of October Siberian snow cover levels and increased Atlantic Ocean heat flux. Does anyone here have experience on predicting wave breaking events into the stratosphere that we can use to predict a SSW. Generally we will see wave breaking events into the stratosphere following strong mountain torque events. These can generally be predicted by following the GWO phases. So, is there anyone who has attempted to forecast SSW's in the US by using these techniques and if so how well have they done? Cheers c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 I suspect that we will see a SSW in January due to a number of factors. We have a descending QBO, increasing stratospheric ozone levels, feedback from end of October Siberian snow cover levels and increased Atlantic Ocean heat flux. Does anyone here have experience on predicting wave breaking events into the stratosphere that we can use to predict a SSW. Generally we will see wave breaking events into the stratosphere following strong mountain torque events. These can generally be predicted by following the GWO phases. So, is there anyone who has attempted to forecast SSW's in the US by using these techniques and if so how well have they done? Cheers c I think HM may have. That's too sophisticated for me but I do think the strong positive ao should wane in Jan and think your reasonable sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I think HM may have. That's too sophisticated for me but I do think the strong positive ao should wane in Jan and think your reasonable sounds good. It will wane long before that... there already is a sub-minor SSW happening right now. Agreed that the big one won't be until at least mid-month though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It will wane long before that... there already is a sub-minor SSW happening right now. Agreed that the big one won't be until at least mid-month though. Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Based on what? The power of positive thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Ok, wouldn't count on that necessarily being correct in the long range however. It's run way too negative all SON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Okie, look at the bottom panel and how the forecasts have been way too low since OCtober. That's partly due to the meaning out of all the solutions. I wouldn't be surprised if it weakend some but doubt that it will go negative that quickly but I guess we won't knwo for a couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Here's a correlation between the November AO and the 500h heights. Notice the decent correlation with low heights across Greenland in December, pretty much what we are seeing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Anybody see the 70mb North Latitudes Stratospheric Temp graph, it's at all time lows and amazingly stable without any spikes up. The rubberband has to snap back eventually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chionomaniac Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I don't think that looking at the 1hPa stratospheric charts are a reliable indicator of weather there is going to be a SSW. The top levels of the stratosphere show an increased response to all types of waves that reach the top of the stratosphere but from what I have observed very few will break through and propagate to lower levels. We can have minor warmings of stratosphere throughout the polar winter but we cannot have a minor SSW. We either have a SSW or we don't. The latest warming could hardly be classed as a minor minor warming even! THere are two ways that waves can break into the stratosphere, either remotely by riding over the top of the 'surf zone' at the edge of the stratospheric vortex (where the greatest potential vorticity exists) or locally by breaking up through the central area of the tropospheric vortex. The start of last winter demonstrates a couple of local wave breaking events. The rubber band analogy is interesting but if one looks at the Antarctic polar vortex we see that the stratosphere becomes a lot colder there with only ever snapping once. The difference between this and that Arctic polar vortex is the existence of the land masses that interact with the vortex allowing the waves to break upward into the stratosphere and therefore for the 'snap' to occur. So that brings me back to the original question in being able to predict the exact timing of a SSW. Studies have shown that the stratospheric vortex is 'preconditioned' more often than not prior to a SSW occurring and that this preconditioning involves either a Pacific or Atlantic based upper blocking system (or both). However, there are far too many times when these types of block have occurred without a SSW so it is difficult to judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Hope someone can answer your question Chiono, you have me intrigued now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Chiono, I don't know the answer and you certainly do get blocking without a SSW event. I don't understand mountain torque events well enough to use them as a forecast tool. I have tried to use the GWO to try to anticipate blocking and it sure seems like when you get towards phases 7 and 8, the potential in the east is greater but I've had more success with that during el nino years like 2009-2010 than la nina ones. As to those thinking the AO was gong to really tank. Look how badly it has underforecast the ao index and how even its forecasts show it rising again to astronomical levels towards the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 LOL, one member has it at +6, I'm not sure anything below or above -5 and +5 respectively is even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 LOL, one member has it at +6, I'm not sure anything below or above -5 and +5 respectively is even possible. But it's above 5 SD right now, that's really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 I posted this comparison in the PHL subforum but think it fits well here. Here's a plot of what is currently happening at the higher latitudes. Note that as the blue shades get colder in the stratosphere the tropospheric pressures and heights also start to fall and that we really look to have started a cold vortex event in November. Now look at the baldwin Dunkerton figure and note the similarities and how that the positive ao type conditions last for about two months. I'm sure using such a dumb guy approach is loaded with pitfalls but that's part of why I think the AO will stay positive into early Jan and then wane. What happens after that is anyone's guess. I've proved I'm not a seasonal guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 I've proved I'm not a seasonal guy. Wes, I think you have proved that you can analyze evidence without bias. Let the chips fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 LOL, one member has it at +6, I'm not sure anything below or above -5 and +5 respectively is even possible. FWIW, the following are the all-time records for the AO: Highest: +5.911, February 26, 1990 Lowest: -7.433, January 15, 1977 The AO has reached or exceed +5.000 on 14 occasions since 1950. The AO has fallen to -5.000 or below on 47 occasions since 1950 and to or below -6.000 on 8 occasions since 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 FWIW, the following are the all-time records for the AO: Highest: +5.911, February 26, 1990 Lowest: -7.433, January 15, 1977 The AO has reached or exceed +5.000 on 14 occasions since 1950. The AO has fallen to -5.000 or below on 47 occasions since 1950 and to or below -6.000 on 8 occasions since 1950. Interesting stats. Jan 1977 was a beast of a month for cold, but no NESIS events. Perhaps the polar vortex was just too far south to allow anything to move up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Interesting stats. Jan 1977 was a beast of a month for cold, but no NESIS events. Perhaps the polar vortex was just too far south to allow anything to move up the coast. there was one storm that tracked from the Gulf to the great lakes around January 10th or so...It brought snow changing to rain in NYC with another blast of cold air in its wake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Chiono, I don't know the answer and you certainly do get blocking without a SSW event. I don't understand mountain torque events well enough to use them as a forecast tool. I have tried to use the GWO to try to anticipate blocking and it sure seems like when you get towards phases 7 and 8, the potential in the east is greater but I've had more success with that during el nino years like 2009-2010 than la nina ones. As to those thinking the AO was gong to really tank. Look how badly it has underforecast the ao index and how even its forecasts show it rising again to astronomical levels towards the end of the period. Tanked! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Tanked! lol That can't be right the AO is over +4 right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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