Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Well not necessarily so...or it's not a lock I should say. Obviously this November is running warm, 48.0º (+3.8º) through yesterday, and looks to finish the last half warmer on the whole as well. It's a rough idea, but I went and looked back at the top 20 warmest Novembers in Chicago's recorded history and then what followed for the winter. There really was no great correlation per se when looking at the stats, though it did skew warmer overall...but I thought it was interesting nonetheless. Plus it really may be too small of a sample size, but I thought 20 would do for now. Also, keep in mind that the official site for Chicago varies throughout the years. If we use the 1981-10 normals for each month as the baseline, highlighted in yellow at the bottom of the chart which is below, here's how it broke down month by month and then by met winter. December 11 were warmer than normal 7 were colder than normal 2 were right around normal (-1 to +1) January 11 were warmer than normal 6 were colder than normal 3 were right around normal (-1 to +1) February 10 were warmer than normal 8 were colder than normal 2 were right around normal (-1 to +1) Met Winter (DJF) 11 were warmer than normal 5 were colder than normal 4 were right around normal (-1 to +1) 5 of the warm Novembers were in Nina states, which we're in now and will be for this upcoming winter. Only 1 winter ended up being colder than normal, while the other 4 were warmer than normal. Again, small sample size...take it FWIW. As an aside, 8 of the Novembers and winters were in Nino states and 5 of the 8 featured normal or cooler than normal winters. It really is probably more random, but in case you were wondering about the season snowfall of each of the winters above...7 were above, 8 were below, and 4 were essentially normal (no snowfall data for 1878-79). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 As the old saying goes "what happens in November, the winter remembers." And if 1931 and 2001 are any indication, it ain't gonna be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 As the old saying goes "what happens in November, the winter remembers." And if 1931 and 2001 are any indication, it ain't gonna be pretty. And I thought Torcharties Wooly Worms was bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 As the old saying goes "what happens in November, the winter remembers." And if 1931 and 2001 are any indication, it ain't gonna be pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Here's the temperature data for O'Hare, since records began there in 1958. I added March for the heck of it. Years are listed in order of warmest November to coolest. The averages at the bottom are for all the years (1958-2010). ENSO state indicated by the shading in the year/season column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Well 1931 and 2001 both made the list for Detroit with daily record highs in November.. lol. Anyways... Looking back at the last 4 Novembers and comparing to this years show nothing really alarming. November 2010 featured a +1.3 departure. A couple decent torches to add in 2010 the 21st-23rd featured a wide range of temps ranging from +10 +22 +7 departure from normal...Also of interest about last year was the small torch at the end of the month on the 29th(+4) & 30th ( +11) There were 6 traces of snow in 2010 the 5th, 24th-27th & the 30th. Moral of the story..... anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Well 1931 and 2001 both made the list for Detroit with daily record highs in November.. lol. Anyways... Looking back at the last 4 Novembers and comparing to this years show nothing really alarming. November 2010 featured a +1.3 departure. A couple decent torches to add in 2010 the 21st-23rd featured a wide range of temps ranging from +10 +22 +7 departure from normal...Also of interest about last year was the small torch at the end of the month on the 29th(+4) & 30th ( +11) There were 6 traces of snow in 2010 the 5th, 24th-27th & the 30th. Moral of the story..... anything can happen. One thing to keep in mind is the new 1981-2010 normals. November raised by 0.8F versus 1971-2000, so last year would have only been a +0.5 on the current scale. Detroit was at +5.3 on the current scale through yesterday, and today had a +12 departure... so I imagine it will be around +6.1 or so for the month by tomorrow (just estimating in my head, so I don't know if that's exactly correct). So that's a pretty big difference from last year, although it may come down some before the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 With the NAO being positive and the PNA being negative for most of November here, any thought of 07-08 continuing to be a decent analog? That may have been a stronger west-based Nina, but the NAO and PNA were + and - respectively, so it may be something to think about. Chalk this one up in the positive or category. This may be the only positivity we'll see for the next week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Well not necessarily so...or it's not a lock I should say. Obviously this November is running warm, 48.0º (+3.8º) through yesterday, and looks to finish the last half warmer on the whole as well. It's a rough idea, but I went and looked back at the top 20 warmest Novembers in Chicago's recorded history and then what followed for the winter. There really was no great correlation per se when looking at the stats, though it did skew warmer overall...but I thought it was interesting nonetheless. Plus it really may be too small of a sample size, but I thought 20 would do for now. Also, keep in mind that the official site for Chicago varies throughout the years. If we use the 1981-10 normals for each month as the baseline, highlighted in yellow at the bottom of the chart which is below, here's how it broke down month by month and then by met winter. December 11 were warmer than normal 7 were colder than normal 2 were right around normal (-1 to +1) January 11 were warmer than normal 6 were colder than normal 3 were right around normal (-1 to +1) February 10 were warmer than normal 8 were colder than normal 2 were right around normal (-1 to +1) Met Winter (DJF) 11 were warmer than normal 5 were colder than normal 4 were right around normal (-1 to +1) 5 of the warm Novembers were in Nina states, which we're in now and will be for this upcoming winter. Only 1 winter ended up being colder than normal, while the other 4 were warmer than normal. Again, small sample size...take it FWIW. As an aside, 8 of the Novembers and winters were in Nino states and 5 of the 8 featured normal or cooler than normal winters. It really is probably more random, but in case you were wondering about the season snowfall of each of the winters above...7 were above, 8 were below, and 4 were essentially normal (no snowfall data for 1878-79). It becomes even more striking if you use the deflated 1971-2000 normal of 25.5. The normals for much of the Midwest warmed from close to 1 degree to more than 2 degrees in some areas for the wintertime in 1981-2010 versus 1971-2000. And Chicago has been no exception, as its average allegedly warmer 0.9 degrees. Anybody whose been around the past few winters knows that is nonsense though and just an attempt to promote the AGW agenda by saying it's warmer. Anyways, versus 1971-2000, it becomes 13 warmer than normal, 2 colder than normal, and 5 near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It becomes even more striking if you use the deflated 1971-2000 normal of 25.5. The normals for much of the Midwest warmed from close to 1 degree to more than 2 degrees in some areas for the wintertime in 1981-2010 versus 1971-2000. And Chicago has been no exception, as its average allegedly warmer 0.9 degrees. Anybody whose been around the past few winters knows that is nonsense though and just an attempt to promote the AGW agenda by saying it's warmer. Anyways, versus 1971-2000, it becomes 13 warmer than normal, 2 colder than normal, and 5 near normal. There's no reason to keep mentioning the 1971-2000 normals. We move on to a new 30 year average every decade and the standard is to use that for comparison, not the previous 30 year cycle. It is what it is. Tim made this thread in good faith but I have to wonder what you're doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Might have to load up on sunscreen and enjoy the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 There's no reason to keep mentioning the 1971-2000 normals. We move on to a new 30 year average every decade and the standard is to use that for comparison, not the previous 30 year cycle. It is what it is. Tim made this thread in good faith but I have to wonder what you're doing. Nothing. Just pointing out that the present averages are higher, so if it really has gotten warmer, it's probably a good idea to also consider how the temperatures compared to the normals at the time they occurred. Assuming it's really about one degree warmer whether due to AGW, UHI (probably not very likely since I doubt the urbanization around O'Hare changed much between the period 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 especially considering 20 years are repeated), "Sol", or any other unidentified or unidentifiable factor(s), the same exact weather pattern might be expected to produce a reading one degree warmer than what occurred under the old regime. Basically, I'm agreeing with him, but just noting that the correlation may be even stronger if you normalize for the time period in which the temperatures were taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Might have to load up on sunscreen and enjoy the show. Enjoying those windchills today and tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Nothing. Just pointing out that the present averages are higher, so if it really has gotten warmer, it's probably a good idea to also consider how the temperatures compared to the normals at the time they occurred. Assuming it's really about one degree warmer whether due to AGW, UHI (probably not very likely since I doubt the urbanization around O'Hare changed much between the period 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 especially considering 20 years are repeated), "Sol", or any other unidentified or unidentifiable factor(s), the same exact weather pattern might be expected to produce a reading one degree warmer than what occurred under the old regime. Basically, I'm agreeing with him, but just noting that the correlation may be even stronger if you normalize for the time period in which the temperatures were taken. I'm not sure how practical that is. Say one of his years is 1995-96. You'd have to use the 1961-1990 normals since those were the averages at the time and I'm not sure how hard it would be to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 I'm not sure how practical that is. Say one of his years is 1995-96. You'd have to use the 1961-1990 normals since those were the averages at the time and I'm not sure how hard it would be to find. Don't waste your time. The original intent has long since passed. This thread is cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 I threw something together for the West Lafayette COOP as well with respect to November temperatures and the following winter temps. First chart is warm Novembers (+1.1º or warmer than the longterm average), second chart is cool Novembers (-1.1º or cooler), and the last chart is "right around normal Novembers (-1º to 1º). Data for the WL COOP is from 1901 to 2011, though there are some missing years/data (1949 through 1952). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 If I based winter solely on temperatures, I would be a bit uneasy now but some several of the winters following a warm Novembers had a good snowstorm or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 If I based winter solely on temperatures, I would be a bit uneasy now but some several of the winters following a warm Novembers had a good snowstorm or two. Yep no doubt. Of course it's just odds with the temperature data. Exceptions are common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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