baroclinic_instability Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 I am not really sure why the GGEM is so moist, it doesn't seem too likely large areas will see 0.5 inches of precip though. ECMWF shows another threat--significant northern stream influence and a squashing effect on the secondary wave and the main storm. Another day another storm threat down the drain. Unfortunately we will probaby see a continued downtrend unless the ECMWF is out to lunch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 Note the northern stream north of MN. That is an amplification killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 I am not really sure why the GGEM is so moist, it doesn't seem too likely large areas will see 0.5 inches of precip though. ECMWF shows another threat--significant northern stream influence and a squashing effect on the secondary wave and the main storm. Another day another storm threat down the drain. Unfortunately we will probaby see a continued downtrend unless the ECMWF is out to lunch here. ECM for my area paints out around 0.30 total...maybe a 2-4" type system at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 Winter Storm Watches out in South Dakota URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 246 PM CST THU NOV 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY... .A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AND SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHEATON...ORTONVILLE...MCLAUGHLIN... HERREID...EUREKA...ABERDEEN...BRITTON...SISSETON...MOBRIDGE... IPSWICH...WEBSTER...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...FAULKTON... REDFIELD...CLARK...WATERTOWN...MILBANK...CASTLEWOOD... CLEAR LAKE...FORT PIERRE...ONIDA...PIERRE...HIGHMORE...MILLER... MURDO...PRESHO...FORT THOMPSON * TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE FRIDAY EVENING...THEN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE COMING TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING. * AMOUNTS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. * WINDS: NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. * OTHER IMPACTS: THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS MAY RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. DRIFTING OF SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 WSW's also out from Rapid City for 6"+ 18z GFS has a pretty nice band saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 21z sref came in a little stronger and north from previous run...HR 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Still some differences from a couple of 0z model runs tonight...NAM stronger & north and RGEM weak & south at HR 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Looking at GFS through 30 it will be farther S and a bit weaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 WSW's also out from Rapid City for 6"+ 18z GFS has a pretty nice band saturday morning It is a good event for the Black Hills, especially the eastern and northern Hills. Deadwood and Lead may see more than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 FWIW...the NAM drops around .75" liquid around RAP/PHP. But the GFS does look weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 It is a good event for the Black Hills, especially the eastern and northern Hills. Deadwood and Lead may see more than a foot. FWIW: 48 HR total qpf Nam map....Deadwood gets nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 FWIW...the NAM drops around .75" liquid around RAP/PHP. But the GFS does look weaker. It is still going to be a decent event even though I have been down on it overall, especially for SD. Portions of the northern Twin Cities may see 2-4" maybe 5" towards St. Cloud where there is much more favorable snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 0z ukie came in stronger and north compared to the 12z run...i'm thinking the rgem had a crap run tonight. Sorry for all the map posting but i'm a little pumped for the first snow event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 0z ukie came in stronger and north compared to the 12z run...i'm thinking the rgem had a crap run tonight. Sorry for all the map posting but i'm a little pumped for the first snow event of the season. I'm excited..but definitely to a lesser extent now. We will see some flakes down here but as far as notable accumulation goes it looks pretty slim. But then again I'm excited to see something fall from the sky other than dust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 I'm excited..but definitely to a lesser extent now. We will see some flakes down here but as far as notable accumulation goes it looks pretty slim. But then again I'm excited to see something fall from the sky other than dust! not looking that great for my area either...might get an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That ought to be a fun 38 inches for northern Wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 That ought to be a fun 38 inches for northern Wyoming. Snow tends to pile up fast at 12 and 13k feet It would be sweet to be in the Wind Rivers at 13500 feet when the snow is flying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 0z ECM is wetter and gone north with precip...FAR gets 0.13 where 12z had nothing. Canadian models are outliers tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Tomorrow evening looks interesting for me as part of this same sytem plows in. Should see rain pick up in the evening and quickly change to snow. I am expecting 2-5 inches, most likely about 3. I have only managed about .5 so far, the lowest of anywhere in the wasatch front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Skilling's RPM model really shows the Black Hills bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 250 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY. ...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON EXPECTED ON SATURDAY... * TIMING...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AFTER 3 AM...AND QUICKLY BECOME HEAVIER DURING THE MORNING. CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL HAVE THE BANDS OF SNOWFALL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN EXPECTING THE SNOWFALL AFTER 12 NOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON...SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND THEN IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH LOCALLY 4 TO 6 INCHES FROM MORRIS TO ALEXANDRIA TO MORA MINNESOTA. * OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED AND RURAL ROADS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Enjoy! You are right on the edge of this storm track, but 2" is better than no snow. Plus being the first of the season I guess you can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Enjoy! You are right on the edge of this storm track, but 2" is better than no snow. Plus being the first of the season I guess you can't complain. I'll enjoy whatever i do get as it looks like a warm blah holiday coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Snow tends to pile up fast at 12 and 13k feet It would be sweet to be in the Wind Rivers at 13500 feet when the snow is flying! The wind blows the snow off the highest and steepest places, and it lands hundreds of feet away. The biggest snow deposits are in little valleys, wherever the wind slows down. This should be a pretty big storm for NW Colorado and the Park Range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Just ran SmartCast run for the SD regions. Showing the Rapid City area in the next 6 hours with winds gusting up to 30-35 mph, and snow. Potential accumulation of 3" in the next 6 hours. Also visibility hanging around a mile or less. Full detail uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Man that sure is a nice snow band just south of the KUDX radar. Fairly narrow but intense frontogenic band but it sure is purdy...... enjoy MN folks only bad thing is it'll all be melted by Thanksgiving but things should get active after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Quick update for the SD. Looking at some strong winds and snow across the Western SD regions for the next 6 hours. Looking at winds gusting up to 30 miles per hour and snow. Areas around the Rapid City area can expect the worst conditions. Snow accumulation around 3-4 inches possible in the next 6 hours. Full details uploaded at http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WY TO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 190543Z - 191015Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT FROM EASTERN WY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD. SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED 1 IN/HR. PER WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCREASING IMPLIED DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AND EMERGE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST-CENTERED BROAD UPPER TROUGH. LIFT/ASCENT WILL BE FURTHER AIDED BY A DEVELOPING COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE IN VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. AS THIS FORCING TREND CONTINUES/BOUNDARY LAYER QUICKLY SATURATES...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT FROM EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WY ACROSS SOUTHWEST-CENTRAL SD THROUGH 09Z-12Z. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEASTWARD ORIENTAL ELEVATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW POTENTIALLY MAXIMIZED IN A 50 MILE WIDE /OR LESS/ CORRIDOR ALONG THIS WSW-ENE AXIS AS PER VARIOUS HIGH-RES NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. LIFT COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER...ATOP AN INCREASINGLY COLDER/ISOTHERMAL LOWEST 2-3 KM...WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. ..GUYER.. 11/19/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 impressive band from eastern SD to northern MN currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Currently areas around Black Hills and Watertown will be the highest threat for the heaviest snowfall and low visibilities. Looking at around 2.5-3" of snow accumulation for the next 6 hours. Winds will be a slight issue for the Watertown area with winds up to around 28mph. Visibilities across these areas in the heavier snow will be around 3/4 of a mile. Full details uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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