prinsburg_wx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 First accumulating snow of the season for many possible for parts of the Dakotas into c Minnesota & n Wisconsin this coming fri/sat. Surface L tracks from Colorado to the lakes bringing a swath of accumulating snows nw of the L...since the storm will be haulin ass it won't be huge amounts but maybe a general 3 - 6 best scenario. 12Z GFS came in a little slower & nw from other models where the GGEM is on the faster side and it's precip farther se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 ECMWF also trended southeast with the track, putting the Twin Cities in the path of the 'heaviest' snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 First accumulating snow of the season for many possible for parts of the Dakotas into c Minnesota & n Wisconsin this coming fri/sat. Surface L tracks from Colorado to the lakes bringing a swath of accumulating snows nw of the L...since the storm will be haulin ass it won't be huge amounts but maybe a general 3 - 6 best scenario. 12Z GFS came in a little slower & nw from other models where the GGEM is on the faster side and it's precip farther se. Euro seems to be right in the middle of the GFS and GGEM. Edit* Storm beat me to it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 ECMWF also trended southeast with the track, putting the Twin Cities in the path of the 'heaviest' snow. Euro seems to be right in the middle of the GFS and GGEM. Edit* Storm beat me to it lol Thanks for posting the euro maps...i keep forgetting that wunderground have those now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Thanks for posting the euro maps...i keep forgetting that wunderground have those now. It is quite the deal..I'm curious how much longer these will be available for FREE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 18z GFS looks similar to the 12z GFS, but about 6 hours slower. At this point, though, the GFS is the outlier with the Canadian & Euro both showing the further southeast track. The track will continue to likely waffle around a bit since the energy that this system develops from is just moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Due to the speed of this system, the full energy and upper trough will not be fully on shore in the west until 0-6z on Saturday, less than 24 hours from the 'event'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 18z GFS looks similar to the 12z GFS, but about 6 hours slower. At this point, though, the GFS is the outlier with the Canadian & Euro both showing the further southeast track. The track will continue to likely waffle around a bit since the energy that this system develops from is just moving into the Gulf of Alaska. Due to the speed of this system, the full energy and upper trough will not be fully on shore in the west until 0-6z on Saturday, less than 24 hours from the 'event'. Interesting to see the 18z GFS ensembles all but one member have the storm/precip north of the euro/ggem...be a fun couple of days watching how this involves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 FWIW: 0z NAM looks like it will take the slower more north route like the GFS. 84HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 FWIW: 0z NAM looks like it will take the slower more north route like the GFS. 84HR For now I am going to have to discount the NAM. These arctic fronts almost always have a tendency to sink a bit farther S than progged, and the NAM has no support from the globals. Still looks like a good event for your Prins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 For now I am going to have to discount the NAM. These arctic fronts almost always have a tendency to sink a bit farther S than progged, and the NAM has no support from the globals. Still looks like a good event for your Prins. This feels like it is going to be a pain to try and pin down, not much a surface wave with the first low around 54-60 hrs or CAA behind the storm, need to pin down how strong the lead wave is, placement of the arctic front and then figure out the depth of the low level cold air. These fronts do tend to drain and undercut low level warmth but without much forcing or lack of a surface wave it has sort of a limit to how far south it can go. I do agree that the nam at this time frame is overdone and too amplified as it usually is and would probably take a split between the gfs and nam in regards to the temperature gradient/frontal placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This feels like it is going to be a pain to try and pin down, not much a surface wave with the first low around 54-60 hrs or CAA behind the storm, need to pin down how strong the lead wave is, placement of the arctic front and then figure out the depth of the low level cold air. These fronts do tend to drain and undercut low level warmth but without much forcing or lack of a surface wave it has sort of a limit to how far south it can go. I do agree that the nam at this time frame is overdone and too amplified as it usually is and would probably take a split between the gfs and nam in regards to the temperature gradient/frontal placement. Yeah I agree. One thing that is truly killing this event is, once again, a shallow front will clear the GOM with poor moisture return into this storm. The Gulf is never open at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Looks as though the 12z GFS has shifted South and East along the lines of the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Looks as though the 12z GFS has shifted South and East along the lines of the other globals. The GFS had a weak run and ejects a crappy looking low amplitude junk wave into the plains. It actually doesn't even amplify... I am not buying that far S yet...I have a feeling that run will be on the low end once the ensembles come out. While portions of MN will see their first snow, just another waste o a potentially great setup. It will still be a fun event to watch, but the potential was much greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The GFS had a weak run and ejects a crappy looking low amplitude junk wave into the plains. It actually doesn't even amplify... I am not buying that far S yet...I have a feeling that run will be on the low end once the ensembles come out. While portions of MN will see their first snow, just another waste o a potentially great setup. It will still be a fun event to watch, but the potential was much greater. Considering we've had only 1.22" of precipitation at MSP since August 17th, I'll take anything at this point even if it is junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Considering we've had only 1.22" of precipitation at MSP since August 17th, I'll take anything at this point even if it is junk. x2. We will wake up to some white ground Sunday morning. That's all that matters. Depending on your point of view, it has been one of the more glorious stretches of nice weather up here (if you don't like rain) since early September. I can't remember a more pleasant Fall ever in my lifetime. Considering that in many years we were on the lakes ice fishing by Thanksgiving, I'd say it's about time. Woke up to the upper teens this morning and it felt good. As long as there is a western trough and the SE ridge doesn't pump up too much, it looks as though we'll have many chances to thread the needle up this way in the next 2 weeks. back to lurking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 12z GEM has the highest QPF amounts across the Twin Cities...been pretty consistent in that track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 x2. We will wake up to some white ground Sunday morning. That's all that matters. Depending on your point of view, it has been one of the more glorious stretches of nice weather up here (if you don't like rain) since early September. I can't remember a more pleasant Fall ever in my lifetime. Considering that in many years we were on the lakes ice fishing by Thanksgiving, I'd say it's about time. Woke up to the upper teens this morning and it felt good. As long as there is a western trough and the SE ridge doesn't pump up too much, it looks as though we'll have many chances to thread the needle up this way in the next 2 weeks. back to lurking: I'm one of those oddballs that would rather have it be raining than sunny. I just love active weather and this fall has been so BORING. Like you said though...depends on your point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 Updated day 3 HPC snow prob...they must be riding the NAM/NOGAPS on this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 The GFS had a weak run and ejects a crappy looking low amplitude junk wave into the plains. It actually doesn't even amplify... I am not buying that far S yet...I have a feeling that run will be on the low end once the ensembles come out. While portions of MN will see their first snow, just another waste o a potentially great setup. It will still be a fun event to watch, but the potential was much greater. The 18z GFS is back north and stronger than the 12z run...EMC has shifted n to s run to run so i'm not sure what to think, HPC has it's snow probs north of any model besides the sref/nogaps...we probably won't have a good idea til friday on who gets screwed or who has to gas up the snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 impressive baroclinic zone but stinks the moisture feed isn't better and 850's aren't southerly to bring that moisture up and over the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 impressive baroclinic zone but stinks the moisture feed isn't better and 850's aren't southerly to bring that moisture up and over the front. Yeah that is the nature of positive tilt waves in confluent flow although this can also enhance frontogenesis via horizontal deformation. That said, totally agree on the GOM situation. Another storm with no feed. That said, will still be a significant event with 3-6" and some good blowing snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The 18z GFS is back north and stronger than the 12z run...EMC has shifted n to s run to run so i'm not sure what to think, HPC has it's snow probs north of any model besides the sref/nogaps...we probably won't have a good idea til friday on who gets screwed or who has to gas up the snowblower. Yeah that is why I wasn't buying the 12Z GFS, the 18Z looks a little more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Moisture feed into this storm is awful. Yeah the GOM looks "open", but in reality it is just recycling a ton of dry air from the previous front. Saturation is going to be an issue for many places and will definitely keeps amounts down except under the strongest frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 00z NAM is still this disgusting open wave P.O.S. But still some light accumulations from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 00z NAM is still this disgusting open wave P.O.S. But still some light accumulations from it. NAM puts down a whopping 0.13 storm total for KOVL.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 NAM puts down a whopping 0.13 storm total for KOVL.... Ya, only around 0.21" at MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 0z ukie/gfs lays down a nice swath of snow compared to the whimpy nam. 72hr ukie 0.40 MSP 0.37 DYT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormJr Posted November 17, 2011 Share Posted November 17, 2011 00z CMC still gives the Twin Cities a good shot of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 00z CMC still gives the Twin Cities a good shot of snow... GGEM qpf for MSP 0.39" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 17, 2011 Author Share Posted November 17, 2011 12z GGEM producing a little more qpf than it's 0z run...0.60+ storm totals in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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