dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 At least the sea ice is making a big come back up by AK. Thank God, because I was worried for those polar bears and penguins. Phew. Yeah me too........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 (AKTAHBSFALT)*.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 It actually tries to get us below normal slightly near the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Well EC ensembles do try to get some blocking and weaken that awful EPO pattern towards the end of the run. It's still a zonal flow type deal so the cold won't really be there, but it's an improvement. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It actually tries to get us below normal slightly near the end of the run. We thought this would happen..first the op would pick up on it and a day or 2 later the ensembles would follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 AKTAHBSFALT Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It actually tries to get us below normal slightly near the end of the run. baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Hihs in the 40's might not be exciting..but its a hell of a lot better than warmth with moths and lightning bugs flying around at nite Killed 3 mosquitos last night. Usually we have the lady bug invasion in October. That didn't happen this year. Not sure what that means, but hopefully it's not some kind of bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 We thought this would happen..first the op would pick up on it and a day or 2 later the ensembles would follow suit. lol...you spin stuff so much. the op runs don't go out as far the ens package. so the "cooler" stuff the op (hasn't) been showing is not the same thing. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 lol...you spin stuff so much. the op runs don't go out as far the ens package. so the "cooler" stuff the op (hasn't) been showing is not the same thing. LOL. Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee You are a trip..lol. Just remember it is at the end of the run, so it could oscillate back and forth over the next several runs. It's still meh, but a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 In one way or another its very clear the AKTAHBSFALT will deliver. Its destiny really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Killed 3 mosquitos last night. Usually we have the lady bug invasion in October. That didn't happen this year. Not sure what that means, but hopefully it's not some kind of bad sign. Probably because it snowed in October and now it won't snow the rest of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 You are a trip..lol. Just remember it is at the end of the run, so it could oscillate back and forth over the next several runs. It's still meh, but a little better. I think Kevin had a little CO poisoning during the outage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Killed 3 mosquitos last night. Usually we have the lady bug invasion in October. That didn't happen this year. Not sure what that means, but hopefully it's not some kind of bad sign. happened to us up here a week or two ago...you will probably get it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Killed 3 mosquitos last night. Usually we have the lady bug invasion in October. That didn't happen this year. Not sure what that means, but hopefully it's not some kind of bad sign. Same here. A few years ago it was always around Oct 10, then last year it was Oct 24. This year, nada... But we have had 2' of snow and numerous days where we got to the 20s or below. Hopefully they are all dead... But yeah, lots of other bugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Same here. A few years ago it was always around Oct 10, then last year it was Oct 24. This year, nada... But we have had 2' of snow and numerous days where we got to the 20s or below. Hopefully they are all dead... But yeah, lots of other bugs. I had a tick on me a last week having been working in the woodpile. Nasty things. 54.3/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 '05-'06 rarely had the snow stick around more then a few days save for the first 3 weeks of December when we had our only sustained cold pattern that winter....but I still rooted and enjoyed those 6-10" SW flow events. 8" of snow that melts in 4 days is better to me than 41F and no snow at all. Regardless, you are right that we rarely have snow that falls in November that will stick around all winter unless you are counting piles or a stray patch of snow sheltered by hemlocks. I think the main points people need to take from the warm pattern talk are: 1. We are talking about in the mean...average...a 2-3 week warm regime does not mean there cannot be some colder days in there, its just the long wave pattern doesn't support cold so we do not see sustained cold. 2. A warm regime does not mean we cannot sneak in a snow event if short term things line up correct...esp for the climo favored spots in late November (NNE/interior SNE elevations). 3. Even if we do not see a flake over the next 3 weeks, that still only puts us at Dec 7th...there is a lot of winter left to go after that point. Both 2008 and 2010 saw nary a flake before 12/15 and both winters were quite prolific across most of SNE. I think I had more accumulated ice than snow on Dec 15, 2008 up to that point. This is the best post in this thread so far. Of course I'm a little worried heading into December but even senior level management at the ski resort isn't all *that* concerned yet as we usually don't make any money the first few weeks anyway. If this persists and we get closer to the Xmas time and its still warm, then it might be time for a toaster bath... but I can't wait to at least get to that first week of December to see what might be ahead in mid to later December. The law of averages almost always works out though... the pattern will break eventually and it'll snow, possibly a lot. Something like 06-07 comes to mind when nothing happened until February, then we got a season's worth of snowfall from Valentines Day onward. 250" of snow fell that season in Feb/Mar/Apr after only having 125" in Nov/Dec/Jan... god what I would do for that pattern again the second half of that winter. It was like monster nor'easter drops 2 feet (Valentines Day, St Patty's Day, Tax Day, etc), then we get another 2 feet worth of upslope in the following days, with a few light 6-12" snowfalls sprinkled in every few days. That was amazing. Hopefully the law of averages comes through as mother nature loves her averages...we'll have to jackpot up here a few times to make up for the October storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Finally got a chance to explore our wooded lot. 13 trees down ranging from 6 inch to 22 inch diameter from Irene. One hit by lightning, all laying NW from the SE wet downburst. The lot is about 1.5 acres. Had a huge fiirepit from branches from Snowtober. Great day to work, last mowing done, skis tuned, bring it on like Donkey Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Finally got a chance to explore our wooded lot. 13 trees down ranging from 6 inch to 22 inch from Irene. One hit by lightning, all laying NW from the SE wet downburst. The lot is about 1.5 acres. Had a huge fiirepit from branches from Snowtober. Great day to work, last mowing done, skis tuned, bring it on like Donkey Kong. XXX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Possible flakes Thurs morning or Thurs night? I is confuzzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Possible flakes Thurs morning or Thurs night? I is confuzzled models hinting at it, gfs about to give more insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 models hinting at it, gfs about to give more insight Blizzy loves him the GFS Meanwhile, La Sizzle continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Finally got a chance to explore our wooded lot. 13 trees down ranging from 6 inch to 22 inch diameter from Irene. One hit by lightning, all laying NW from the SE wet downburst. The lot is about 1.5 acres. Had a huge fiirepit from branches from Snowtober. Great day to work, last mowing done, skis tuned, bring it on like Donkey Kong. Lots of firewood for Ginxy! Where is that? 53.7/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 getting closer.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Possible flakes Thurs morning or Thurs night? I is confuzzled Totally perplexed here at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Possible flakes Thurs morning or Thurs night? I is confuzzled I have not been able to look at the models today. But here's where I'm puzzled.....not exactly threatening here (4:00p.m. forecast). .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. .FRIDAY...SUNNY. COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. 53.5/38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 I have not been able to look at the models today. But here's where I'm puzzled.....not exactly threatening here (4:00p.m. forecast). .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE EVENING. .FRIDAY...SUNNY. COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 40. 53.5/38 This was for Thursday, but the best chance was east of you....like Kevin and Will's area, but this is a low prob. It was just meant to be watched as a small possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 This was for Thursday, but the best chancre was east of you....like Kevin and Will's area, but this is a low prob. It was just meant to be watched as a small possibility. Gotcha. There's no mention of it really in the AFD as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Lots of firewood for Ginxy! Where is that? 53.7/39 Behind the house, during Irene I could hear them crashing but had enough around here to do. Tons of wood, couple of widow makers though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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