CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Next week may go OTS, but it's another classic battle of the s/w's with a fast northern stream and a cutoff low across SOCAL. Numerical guidance just loves those scenarios...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Normal November snowfall at most stations in SNE must be < 6 inches... So if we did manage to sneak any snow event next week it is a plus even if it does melt off in another torch. It's to be expected ...most people in this thread can't expect to start building snow pack in the month of November. November is generally a terrible month wx -wise with much more cold rain than anything. We romanticize those past late November snow patterns, but they are more the exception than the rule. Now off to eat at a sidewalk cafe on my final night in the Baixa section of Lisbon. I wonder if I hit any systems crossing over tomorrow...haven't studied the Atlantic model maps. You must be having fun over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Absolutely--season totals, man. Goes right to the bottom line, In the end it all adds up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It's been great and very reasonable overall in November.. Wx is not bad ...upper 50s to low/mid 70s over the last 10 days here. Upper low over us now so the kind of day where it is sunny until afternoon and then convective stuff billows and you get a late day shower. 546 thickness today, but 38N latitude and the whole Atlantic to the west so it can't get very cold. . You must be having fun over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Are you feeling OK???? It seems like you're on the verge of a Tip moment and it's only Nov 15. ha ha. oh man - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 It's odd that this pattern is so stable with Nina remaining weak..........I would think with this changing to Solstice regime something is going to snap. agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Semi interesting this Thursday, I guess I'm half excited then..... Imagine if we have an ORH snow bomb and rain for Kevin. Wow. ORH--AWT REV: FYP You forgot to post your temp and dewpoint at the end of your post Don't you need to work? 55.8/40 Normal November snowfall at most stations in SNE must be < 6 inches... So if we did manage to sneak any snow event next week it is a plus even if it does melt off in another torch. It's to be expected ...most people in this thread can't expect to start building snow pack in the month of November. November is generally a terrible month wx -wise with much more cold rain than anything. We romanticize those past late November snow patterns, but they are more the exception than the rule. Now off to eat at a sidewalk cafe on my final night in the Baixa section of Lisbon. I wonder if I hit any systems crossing over tomorrow...haven't studied the Atlantic model maps. Have a good trip back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 NIce cozy weather's settled into interior NE Alaska ... .TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 20 TO 30 BELOW. NORTH WINDS 10 MPH. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY ICE FOG. LOWS AROUND 40 BELOW. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 25 TO 35 BELOW. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40 BELOW. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 25 BELOW. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 30 BELOW. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 20 BELOW. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 25 BELOW. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 15 BELOW. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 25 BELOW. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 5 BELOW. .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS NEAR 20 BELOW. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS NEAR 10 BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I guess I'm half excited then..... ORH--AWT REV: FYP Don't you need to work? 55.8/40 Have a good trip back! Looks like you would get screwed on qpf on any of these threats anyways......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Looks like you would get screwed on qpf on any of these threats anyways......... I'll need to start a thread for Chris, Pete, Rick, Andy, and Scoob. We'll have it as a qpf discussion. 55.5/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Well good news I suppose, is that the euro seasonal forecasts cooled down a bit, but still kind of nasty, especially south of NYC. They aren't that pretty here either..but doable. Reminds me a bit of '07/'08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Getting dark outside, had a few showers. I dont mind the torch weather at this stage it is a nice change for now. Just think if November to early December was cold and then we torched by Xmas 1that would be 10x's worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Well good news I suppose, is that the euro seasonal forecasts cooled down a bit, but still kind of nasty, especially south of NYC. They aren't that pretty here either..but doable. Reminds me a bit of '07/'08. I think that winter has been referenced quite a bit over the summer and this fall so far as what this winter may bring, We shall see how it goes once we get into december, We did well with marginal temps and snow that winter, I'm all in for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 I think that winter has been referenced quite a bit over the summer and this fall so far as what this winter may bring, We shall see how it goes once we get into december, We did well with marginal temps and snow that winter, I'm all in for it Yeah the gradient seemed like it, but of course it doesn't mean we duplicate the prolific snow up your way. It just had that look. Either way, Thursday afternoon maybe something for the higher elevations. Since I am working on the biggest period of the year next week, we can probably lock in some freak winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 '05-'06 rarely had the snow stick around more then a few days save for the first 3 weeks of December when we had our only sustained cold pattern that winter....but I still rooted and enjoyed those 6-10" SW flow events. 8" of snow that melts in 4 days is better to me than 41F and no snow at all. Regardless, you are right that we rarely have snow that falls in November that will stick around all winter unless you are counting piles or a stray patch of snow sheltered by hemlocks. I think the main points people need to take from the warm pattern talk are: 1. We are talking about in the mean...average...a 2-3 week warm regime does not mean there cannot be some colder days in there, its just the long wave pattern doesn't support cold so we do not see sustained cold. 2. A warm regime does not mean we cannot sneak in a snow event if short term things line up correct...esp for the climo favored spots in late November (NNE/interior SNE elevations). 3. Even if we do not see a flake over the next 3 weeks, that still only puts us at Dec 7th...there is a lot of winter left to go after that point. Both 2008 and 2010 saw nary a flake before 12/15 and both winters were quite prolific across most of SNE. I think I had more accumulated ice than snow on Dec 15, 2008 up to that point. Best post of the day I just care about temps attm. Snow will come when it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Best post of the day I just care about temps attm. Snow will come when it comes I think that's been the message all along, but people are concerned that we are blow torching the whole time. It doesn't work like that. See, there are different aspects here because your area is defintely prone to do much better than this neck of the woods. So because we can't sustain cold...it doesn't mean you can't get a quick 31-32F snow deal. Around here, these types of deals are harder to come by, because climo is still rather hostile. We'd have to have a cold airmass shoved in here amid a pattern that is more conducive to being mild. I have 53F waters still to my east. Of course, that water can be high octane fuel too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Yeah the gradient seemed like it, but of course it doesn't mean we duplicate the prolific snow up your way. It just had that look. Either way, Thursday afternoon maybe something for the higher elevations. Since I am working on the biggest period of the year next week, we can probably lock in some freak winter event. Would not expect the same results, But with any systems passing thru in that pattern we could see some winter precip chances in a marginal temp regime, Thurs right now, Does look like it has a chance for something even here, The last few runs had nothing so its trending the right way, Could get interesting for ya on turkey day snow or not if you have logan to contend with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Looks like some snow on the way via the NAM, should be interesting Thursday, gotta love short wave lengths and a NS driven pattern, even in the ocean of fire these little islands of ice keep popping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Looks like some snow on the way via the NAM, should be interesting Thursday, gotta love short wave lengths and a NS driven pattern, even in the ocean of fire these little islands of ice keep popping up A little too late on the NAM run. It's not a high prob, but it got somewhat interesting on the GFS and Euro. There is nothing else remotely interesting otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 At least the sea ice is making a big come back up by AK. Thank God, because I was worried for those polar bears and penguins. Phew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 A little too late on the NAM run. It's not a high prob, but it got somewhat interesting on the GFS and Euro. There is nothing else remotely interesting otherwise. Its close to being something that could coat the ground, and yes, its all we have for the time being, so I am hoping for a weaker first wave and a more robust second with a better BL to act upon. It will be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Looks like some snow on the way via the NAM, should be interesting Thursday, gotta love short wave lengths and a NS driven pattern, even in the ocean of fire these little islands of ice keep popping up Meh I don't really see the snow on the NAM.. this looks like a normal FROPA type event where it rains THEN the cold comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 the flow is just too fast for thursday to be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Meh I don't really see the snow on the NAM.. this looks like a normal FROPA type event where it rains THEN the cold comes in ok, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 ok, thanks. Sometimes with FROPA and models, it will look like there is some QPF left when the 850s have crashed, but in fact all precip has gone through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Sometimes with FROPA and models, it will look like there is some QPF left when the 850s have crashed, but in fact all precip has gone through really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Sometimes with FROPA and models, it will look like there is some QPF left when the 850s have crashed, but in fact all precip has gone through Weenieologist has spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Well EC ensembles do try to get some blocking and weaken that awful EPO pattern towards the end of the run. It's still a zonal flow type deal so the cold won't really be there, but it's an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Weenieologist has spoken. No the weenieolgist would say, "OMG the NAM shows crashing heights with 3-5" of heavy paste on the backside for Thursday!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Well EC ensembles do try to get some blocking and weaken that awful EPO pattern towards the end of the run. It's still a zonal flow type deal so the cold won't really be there, but it's an improvement. AKTAHBSFALT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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