Late November/Early December upcoming wx.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Who cares about the snowpack though. It is still meaningless this time of year across all of SNE. Just be happy to get some events to sneak in.

just can't help yourself.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey John, the NAO does try to go negative. Here is the problem...that vortex over AK shoves Bering Sea taint right into Canada. So even if we have blocking, it shoves that crappy airmass into SNE. We really need for that Bering Sea vortex to just go away. An EPO phase change would be exponentially better than a -NAO IMO...especially for coastal areas. Higher elevations might be able to get away with a crappier airmass.

Yeah, I completely agree that EPO is more important than the NAO; I've always thought so.. I think of it as a relay: The EPO dives, that unloads the arctic, the NAO tanks, that directs said arctic unload, here. That's the ideal model; obviously one or the other can operate on their own to some degree (no pun intended).

I also mentioned how there is some suggestion that the EPO may be forced to change once R-wave responds to Phase 8 tropical forcing.

I think the tightening up of the GFS cluster for a rise in the PNA may be telling.. +EPO/+PNA is an unstable, less correlated wave configuraiton and usually breaks down faster. So if the PNA rises that much it is unlikely the EPO will stay so positive. "IF" the MJO indeed proves stronger passing through Phase 8, much of these corrections would not currently even be modeled. You'd think a "global forecast system" would take that into account, but it seems the MJO effects on the model output have a lag.

[CT Rain]

You know it's sad when you are rooting for cold rain and temps in the 40s.

climo is upper 40s next week for highs. How exciting that we may get a high of 44 or 45!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Damage In Tolland]

...but even if a few mangled flakes DO manage to fly within the next 2 weeks or so, I personally could care less. ...I mean, let's say that we get another foot of snow between now and 12/1. Will it stick around? ...nope! I just want it to get cold enough to freeze the ground, so any snow that does fall will start to build a meaningful snowpack. For me, it's the time of year where I look for a snowfall that will cover the grass until late March or so...

We're not going to have the ground frozen until mid or late Dec this year..and even then it may not if we go right to deep snow cover after a milder regime.

So we're far better off with the way the models have trended te last 3-4 days to a much colder pattern next week than what was being modelled.

It was looking like a week of 70's a few days ago..and then the Euro op fired the first shot across the bow ..and each run has gotten progressively chillier for next week..So much so that we have a decent shot at a few accumulating snow chances .

Personally i'd much rather have this pattern vs a week of 70's like the Euro had later last week before it trended colder AMOUT

[CoastalWx]

The biggest snow event of '01-'02 here was on Dec 8, 2001 with 9 inches of snow...it was in the 70s on 12/6/01 across much of the area...one of the warmest Dec days on record. Then the next week it cracked 60F again IIRC. God-awful pattern, but we snuck in a decent storm there.

I think that's all we are going to have to hope for over the next 2-3 weeks, but obviously your area is much more heavily favored right now. It doesn't change the fact that the pattern sucks, but I suppose a snow event will sooth the souls of a few weenies.

[easternsnowman]

blowtorch after hr 240

After 240 it's a lock then!

[CoastalWx]

LOL - was thinking about that last night. i would just welcome a storm at this point. i mean it's "nice" out there with temps like this but...meh. enough.

I've had the windows down each of the last 2 nights.

[dryslot]

That Tgiving day low is doing it's magic to keep it short and sour. Note the ht rises getting crimped by the day.

Yeah, Still way out there but a few ticks south and its close to white not wet here, As is NW Mtns with elevation would be snow with a flip on the backside here on turkey day

[CT Rain]

We're not going to have the ground frozen until mid or late Dec this year..and even then it may not if we go right to deep snow cover after a milder regime.

So we're far better off with the way the models have trended te last 3-4 days to a much colder pattern next week than what was being modelled.

It was looking like a week of 70's a few days ago..and then the Euro op fired the first shot across the bow ..and each run has gotten progressively chillier for next week..So much so that we have a decent shot at a few accumulating snow chances .

Personally i'd much rather have this pattern vs a week of 70's like the Euro had later last week before it trended colder AMOUT

Are you feeling OK????

It seems like you're on the verge of a Tip moment and it's only Nov 15.

[weathafella]

The NHEM pattern is still crappy but improving. Note the ht rises FINALLY beginning in central Asia while the vortex in AK or it's vicinity fills.

D7 vs D10

D7:

D10:

[CoastalWx]

Imagine if we have an ORH snow bomb and rain for Kevin. Wow.

[dryslot]

After 240 it's a lock then!

In this pattern bank on it

[Professional Lurker]

We're not going to have the ground frozen until mid or late Dec this year..and even then it may not if we go right to deep snow cover after a milder regime.

So we're far better off with the way the models have trended te last 3-4 days to a much colder pattern next week than what was being modelled.

It was looking like a week of 70's a few days ago..and then the Euro op fired the first shot across the bow ..and each run has gotten progressively chillier for next week..So much so that we have a decent shot at a few accumulating snow chances .

Personally i'd much rather have this pattern vs a week of 70's like the Euro had later last week before it trended colder AMOUT

yeah...

Don't get me wrong, the freak week was amazing, but... let's say that I average 80" per year (which I probably don't...). I've received over 1/4 of my seasonal snowfall, and I still have leaves to rake. I'm just saying that it would be nice to see within the next few weeks things change drastically enough that when it DOES snow, it stays around for a while.

[Damage In Tolland]

Are you feeling OK????

It seems like you're on the verge of a Tip moment and it's only Nov 15.

LOL..I'm fine... I feel much much better about next week than i did on Saturday. There's noting worse than a hot Thanksgiving week..where we go and cut down the X-mas tree in tongs and tubes.

Hihs in the 40's might not be exciting..but its a hell of a lot better than warmth with moths and lightning bugs flying around at nite

[ORH_wxman]

Who cares about the snowpack though. It is still meaningless this time of year across all of SNE. Just be happy to get some events to sneak in.

'05-'06 rarely had the snow stick around more then a few days save for the first 3 weeks of December when we had our only sustained cold pattern that winter....but I still rooted and enjoyed those 6-10" SW flow events.

8" of snow that melts in 4 days is better to me than 41F and no snow at all. Regardless, you are right that we rarely have snow that falls in November that will stick around all winter unless you are counting piles or a stray patch of snow sheltered by hemlocks.

I think the main points people need to take from the warm pattern talk are:

1. We are talking about in the mean...average...a 2-3 week warm regime does not mean there cannot be some colder days in there, its just the long wave pattern doesn't support cold so we do not see sustained cold.

2. A warm regime does not mean we cannot sneak in a snow event if short term things line up correct...esp for the climo favored spots in late November (NNE/interior SNE elevations).

3. Even if we do not see a flake over the next 3 weeks, that still only puts us at Dec 7th...there is a lot of winter left to go after that point. Both 2008 and 2010 saw nary a flake before 12/15 and both winters were quite prolific across most of SNE. I think I had more accumulated ice than snow on Dec 15, 2008 up to that point.

[CoastalWx]

The NHEM pattern is still crappy but improving. Note the ht rises FINALLY beginning in central Asia while the vortex in AK or it's vicinity fills.

D7 vs D10

D7:

D10:

I think what we want to see is for more troughing in Asia...especially northeast Asia. That will help pump up the EPO ridge and get the ball rolling. The pattern right now has a very stable look to it. It's certainly feeling cozy right now. It will take a while to change.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Are you feeling OK????

It seems like you're on the verge of a Tip moment and it's only Nov 15.

:lol:

[Tropopause_Fold]

LOL..I'm fine... I feel much much better about next week than i did on Saturday. There's noting worse than a hot Thanksgiving week..where we go and cut down the X-mas tree in tongs and tubes.

Hihs in the 40's might not be exciting..but its a hell of a lot better than warmth with moths and lightning bugs flying around at nite

this place is cracking me up right now.

[Tropopause_Fold]

'05-'06 rarely had the snow stick around more then a few days save for the first 3 weeks of December when we had our only sustained cold pattern that winter....but I still rooted and enjoyed those 6-10" SW flow events.

8" of snow that melts in 4 days is better to me than 41F and no snow at all. Regardless, you are right that we rarely have snow that falls in November that will stick around all winter unless you are counting piles or a stray patch of snow sheltered by hemlocks.

I think the main points people need to take from the warm pattern talk are:

1. We are talking about in the mean...average...a 2-3 week warm regime does not mean there cannot be some colder days in there, its just the long wave pattern doesn't support cold so we do not see sustained cold.

2. A warm regime does not mean we cannot sneak in a snow event if short term things line up correct...esp for the climo favored spots in late November (NNE/interior SNE elevations).

3. Even if we do not see a flake over the next 3 weeks, that still only puts us at Dec 7th...there is a lot of winter left to go after that point. Both 2008 and 2010 saw nary a flake before 12/15 and both winters were quite prolific across most of SNE. I think I had more accumulated ice than snow on Dec 15, 2008 up to that point.

well said.

[weathafella]

It's odd that this pattern is so stable with Nina remaining weak..........I would think with this changing to Solstice regime something is going to snap.

[CoastalWx]

'05-'06 rarely had the snow stick around more then a few days save for the first 3 weeks of December when we had our only sustained cold pattern that winter....but I still rooted and enjoyed those 6-10" SW flow events.

8" of snow that melts in 4 days is better to me than 41F and no snow at all. Regardless, you are right that we rarely have snow that falls in November that will stick around all winter unless you are counting piles or a stray patch of snow sheltered by hemlocks.

I think the main points people need to take from the warm pattern talk are:

1. We are talking about in the mean...average...a 2-3 week warm regime does not mean there cannot be some colder days in there, its just the long wave pattern doesn't support cold so we do not see sustained cold.

2. A warm regime does not mean we cannot sneak in a snow event if short term things line up correct...esp for the climo favored spots in late November (NNE/interior SNE elevations).

3. Even if we do not see a flake over the next 3 weeks, that still only puts us at Dec 7th...there is a lot of winter left to go after that point. Both 2008 and 2010 saw nary a flake before 12/15 and both winters were quite prolific across most of SNE. I think I had more accumulated ice than snow on Dec 15, 2008 up to that point.

Oh yeah I'm not saying who cares about snow...I want the events to come. I just mean that for those wanting a snowpack..it's a very difficult thing to ask for right now.

I think people forget that we did wait at times well into December for meaningful stuff, but at least we had some teasers before hand. There is this thing that December has to come in cold and snowy because that's what we've been having over the last 4 years. Truth is, it doesn't have to happen and the pattern is rather hostile in general right now, so just hope for something to utilize a temporarily favorable setup across SNE.

[moneypitmike]

bit of race between precip exiting and cold arriving but eastern areas see some flakes thursday evening?

That race is akin to Charlie Brown trying to kick the football--flat on his back.

[CT Rain]

I think what we want to see is for more troughing in Asia...especially northeast Asia. That will help pump up the EPO ridge and get the ball rolling. The pattern right now has a very stable look to it. It's certainly feeling cozy right now. It will take a while to change.

Yeah I think what a lot of the mets in here have been saying is that the northern hemisphere pattern as a whole sucks. Does that mean Kevin can't sneak out a low 40F high or some flurries... of course not.

The issue here is that we're not going to see a lot of cold air around in early December so the earlier predictions of a cold December for northeast CONUS have already gone down in flames.

I said it before but I'm fine with seeing this awful pattern Thanksgiving week into first week of December. Much better for us now than in a month or so.

[moneypitmike]

What a change as we move forward in time here. Went from a torch to sustained week of below normal.. What do you know?

You went from crying a river yesterday to happy-go-lucky today. Mercurial lately.

[Damage In Tolland]

You went from crying a river yesterday to happy-go-lucky today. Mercurial lately.

You forgot to post your temp and dewpoint at the end of your post

[moneypitmike]

Meh.. does 3-4 inches of snow even matter if it's it's gonna be in the 50s a couple days later?

Absolutely--season totals, man.

[CoastalWx]

You went from crying a river yesterday to happy-go-lucky today. Mercurial lately.

Well the good news is that he'll be putting is final Lesco down on Thanksgiving weekend while swatting away moths.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well the good news is that he'll be putting is final Lesco down on Thanksgiving weekend while swatting away moths.

Put that down this past Saturday and will wash it in tomorrow with the rain and Thursday with the snow that will melt on Saturday afternoon

[Professional Lurker]

'05-'06 rarely had the snow stick around more then a few days save for the first 3 weeks of December when we had our only sustained cold pattern that winter....but I still rooted and enjoyed those 6-10" SW flow events.

8" of snow that melts in 4 days is better to me than 41F and no snow at all. Regardless, you are right that we rarely have snow that falls in November that will stick around all winter unless you are counting piles or a stray patch of snow sheltered by hemlocks.

I definitely do agree... snow is better than no snow, regardless of whether it sticks around. It is early still, plenty of winter left! Maybe Freak Week spoiled me a bit, I dunno. ...but I want it to get cold, stay cold, and snow, dammit!

Of course, we all do!

[Logan11]

Normal November snowfall at most stations in SNE must be < 6 inches... So if we did manage to sneak any snow event next week it is a plus even if it does melt off in another torch. It's to be expected ...most people in this thread can't expect to start building snow pack in the month of November. November is generally a terrible month wx -wise with much more cold rain than anything. We romanticize those past late November snow patterns, but they are more the exception than the rule.

Now off to eat at a sidewalk cafe on my final night in the Baixa section of Lisbon. I wonder if I hit any systems crossing over tomorrow...haven't studied the Atlantic model maps.

this place is cracking me up right now.