Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 What a change as we move forward in time here. Went from a torch to sustained week of below normal.. What do you know? what?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 What a change as we move forward in time here. Went from a torch to sustained week of below normal.. What do you know? And next week doesn't look "sustained below normal" either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Euro is a torch this weekend. I'm talking about next week..not Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 at least the pattern is closer to seasonal next week...though i suppose euro would suggest yet another massive warm-up day 10+ Yeah transient shots AMOUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Definitely some changes notable about the GFS-derived teleconnectors from overnight... Others have made it clear that they are more Euro cluster reliant. To each his own. For the time being I am actually more impressed by the fact that it is 65-70 today, and 2 days from now it may not crack 40 at this same time of day, and then 2 or 3 days later it may surge well into the 60s. Looking at the temperature products at large and considering the NH snow cover data winter lurks not too far NW of our lat/lon already. This upcoming cold snap ...however brief, is an homage to our being precariously close by - such that a wayward wave can yank some of that mass southward. Interesting Meteorology. Now if all one cares about is snow - fine. Someone should start at new forum out there on the electronic highways called www.ilovesnow.com, and have the rules vaguely stated that any scientif discussion about the weather is prohibited in lieu of wantun obsession with whether someone gets to have a snow pack or not. But I digress... anyway, the PNA is tightly agreed upon rather abruptly by the 21 members of the GFS family from overnight, showing a very clear, coherent signal for a total rise of 1.5SD. Given to the size of the PNA domain, a rise of half that value would be enough monitor for orientation changes. The PNA can be neutral with a PNAP that is positive, due to its having so much domain/mass situated farther west over the open Pacific Basin. I am wondering which part of the PNA domain is going to represent the lion's share of the index rise. If it takes place over the eastern areas of the domain than the pattern over N/A may erupt a western heights recovery; perhaps the operational runs aren't picking up on that. Lots of possibilities there... But, seeing a tightly clustered rise of that magnitude is a great start for winter weather enthusiasts. The MJO ...regardless of what-have-you prog for phases 3 and 4 (not sure where that is coming from but it looks off to me), is currently residing on the terminous of Phase 7 and 8. NCEP anticipates it to remain weak, but, I am noticing a marked similarity to the last time in passed through 7, and we saw more cohenrency emerge as the eastward propagation continued. Quick word on that. We could also be in a MJO series that wants to favor the left side of the Wheeler diagram for amplitude. Should the current signal seen here, http://www.cpc.ncep....O/mjoupdate.pdf , prove accurate and extrapolates accordingly, the PNA would likely get a boost that is not currently even progged. The WPO/EPO correlation to the PNA can be operated on once that registers in the atmosphere - i.e., you wouldn't necessarily see it in the modes at this time. The AO also is now showing several memebers taking a dive in the last 10 days of the month - that is new. The last 3 days showed pretty much every member remaining positive, albeit mop ended.. There is still the same incoherence, but a few members have begun sinking; I have noticed in the past that an early AO decay often does begin with a member or two, then the rest following suit over a couple few days. Have to see there... Quck word on that. When the AO does finally tank - and it will - cold transport to middle latitudes slated to benefit off of that will do so with particular panache this year. The abundance of snow pack under verifying presence of massive -20 to -30 850 packages above 55N is an canon loading that may be difficult for some poeple to get their heads around when we are sitting in these untimely 70F breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Semi interesting this Thursday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Meh.. does 3-4 inches of snow even matter if it's it's gonna be in the 50s a couple days later? I could give 2 ****z if it does not snow until december, Just sayin verbatium where the storm was next tues if you read between the lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Still crappy. What's the use of 50F temps. Low-mid 40's for highs all next week is fine just like the Euro shows. That's all we're asking for..That's normal to a bit below . Much better than Ryan's +10-+15 thru day 15 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Yeah transient shots AMOUT. yeah it actually plays out very much AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 at least the pattern is closer to seasonal next week...though i suppose euro would suggest yet another massive warm-up day 10+ Yeah the Euro would have us in our banana hammocks as we enter December probably, lol. An overall warm regime doesn't mean we can't get lucky during these little transient cold shots...so we definitely do not have to put the models away for 2 weeks. Esp the interior as is usually the case as climo dictates in late November. But sustained cold definitely does not look in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Won't take much to have 3 shots at accumulating snow over the next 7-10 days. Thursday could snow..then Tuesday..and then possibly the holiday itself.. Not bad at all. better than tracking warmth and posting about flip flops and sex wax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 clicking John's ilovesnow.com brings one to an Asian website..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Hey John, the NAO does try to go negative. Here is the problem...that vortex over AK shoves Bering Sea taint right into Canada. So even if we have blocking, it shoves that crappy airmass into SNE. We really need for that Bering Sea vortex to just go away. An EPO phase change would be exponentially better than a -NAO IMO...especially for coastal areas. Higher elevations might be able to get away with a crappier airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 yeah it actually plays out very much AMOUT Yeah it's a seasonable period bookended by 2 torches. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Won't take much to have 3 shots at accumulating snow over the next 7-10 days. Thursday could snow..then Tuesday..and then possibly the holiday itself.. Not bad at all. better than tracking warmth and posting about flip flops and sex wax You'll be tracking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 +10-+15 pattern cancel and PHAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Semi interesting this Thursday, In your pants ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Low-mid 40's for highs all next week is fine just like the Euro shows. That's all we're asking for..That's normal to a bit below . Much better than Ryan's +10-+15 thru day 15 . And I didn't say that. The pattern is a very warm one still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Yeah the Euro would have us in our banana hammocks as we enter December probably, lol. An overall warm regime doesn't mean we can't get lucky during these little transient cold shots...so we definitely do not have to put the models away for 2 weeks. Esp the interior as is usually the case as climo dictates in late November. But sustained cold definitely does not look in the cards. yep. this run is a good example of what's been posted a lot - that the overall theme is above (much at times) normal, but we can always get a scooter sneaky special in there if the cards were to break right. i don't see the arctic air locking in for the time being, however. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 blowtorch after hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 ITs low to mid 40s next week for highs, that is way below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 yep. this run is a good example of what's been posted a lot - that the overall theme is above (much at times) normal, but we can always get a scooter sneaky special in there if the cards were to break right. i don't see the arctic air locking in for the time being, however. LOL. It's ok for flakes to fall on Pete's locks once in a while, but sucks for us..unless we somehow get an airmass like what is shown on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 yep. this run is a good example of what's been posted a lot - that the overall theme is above (much at times) normal, but we can always get a scooter sneaky special in there if the cards were to break right. i don't see the arctic air locking in for the time being, however. LOL. Yeah, I agree. Overall the pattern still sucks but it's certainly possible to sneak something out particularly in northern sections where climo is a bit more on their side this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 And I didn't say that. The pattern is a very warm one still. You know it's sad when you are rooting for cold rain and temps in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 I love when all the mets gang up on me together. It's like a circle jerk on Kev's face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 blowtorch after hr 240 That Tgiving day low is doing it's magic to keep it short and sour. Note the ht rises getting crimped by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 Won't take much to have 3 shots at accumulating snow over the next 7-10 days. Thursday could snow..then Tuesday..and then possibly the holiday itself.. Not bad at all. better than tracking warmth and posting about flip flops and sex wax ...but even if a few mangled flakes DO manage to fly within the next 2 weeks or so, I personally could care less. ...I mean, let's say that we get another foot of snow between now and 12/1. Will it stick around? ...nope! I just want it to get cold enough to freeze the ground, so any snow that does fall will start to build a meaningful snowpack. For me, it's the time of year where I look for a snowfall that will cover the grass until late March or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 yep. this run is a good example of what's been posted a lot - that the overall theme is above (much at times) normal, but we can always get a scooter sneaky special in there if the cards were to break right. i don't see the arctic air locking in for the time being, however. LOL. The biggest snow event of '01-'02 here was on Dec 8, 2001 with 9 inches of snow...it was in the 70s on 12/6/01 across much of the area...one of the warmest Dec days on record. Then the next week it cracked 60F again IIRC. God-awful pattern, but we snuck in a decent storm there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2011 Author Share Posted November 15, 2011 Who cares about the snowpack though. It is still meaningless this time of year across all of SNE. Just be happy to get some events to sneak in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 15, 2011 Share Posted November 15, 2011 You know it's sad when you are rooting for cold rain and temps in the 40s. LOL - was thinking about that last night. i would just welcome a storm at this point. i mean it's "nice" out there with temps like this but...meh. enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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